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PaulFG.
I understand your point about not rushing in. I have no guarantees about results, or even if there will be a rise on results. However after following it extremely closely last year, I think at one point in a short space of time I was up 150%, shortly after the Company released 19m@31g/t and 49m@15g/t. This is it with exploration markets, those really are world class results. They’re eye catching and catch the attention of new investment, but ask me whether I want to see them, or 10 shallow 15m@4g/t, I go with the latter. It’s about the amount of Gold in the project, and the consistency in the reporting that impressed me. The world class results just demonstrate in patches the very high profitable payback when it comes to mining those areas.
Although I agree, breakthrough news regularly gets released on the London markets and investors still have time to execute good positions afterwards.
* atrocities...
OAPK20 - just for you, I will explain it, so that you can see that I really am not de ramping with the 6.5p. Basically, under the fund raise, Lionhead (and other investors) are going to get $12.5 million of shares. The price that those shares will be issued at - the placing price if you like - will be calculated using the formula below, which is from the Term Sheet itself.
So, using that formula, if the share price remained at an average of 7.2p in the month before the DFS is issued, the placing shares would be issued at 10% discount to 7.2p, which is 6.5p.
Of course, nobody can say exactly when the DFS will be issued and what the share price will be in the preceding 30 days, but I was just giving an example based on the current share price. I hope this makes sense and it is simply my understanding of it. Happy to be corrected.
"The Term Sheet envisages:
? Equity Financing: US$12.5m subscription for new ordinary shares of no par value each in Cora at the lower of (i) an 10% discount to the 30-day volume weighted average price ('VWAP') at the date that Cora announces achievement of the Project Milestone... (the 'Equity Financing')"
Yeah that’s a very good point. Since my first investment here, the top shareholders at every corner have backed this at multiple prices. But if the term sheet milestones are met and signed upon in the first half of this year, that’s an enormous commitment into the company. One that doesn’t make external factors disappear, but may ease your mind a little with the mine moving forward
The increased activity of the Wagner Group is worrying, and thwarts the efforts the French have been trying to make in the region in the recent years. But you will see a lot of propaganda creeping into articles, especially with the Ukraine:Russia issue. I found this one earlier today
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/russian-mercenaries-accused-torturing-civilians-mali/
“Russian mercenaries accused of torturing civilians in Mali”
And the following content appears within that link
“ Two new reports by the Le Monde newspaper and Human Rights Watch (HRW), a New York-based rights group, contain stark accounts from civilians detailing how "white men speaking a strange language" imprisoned them in central Mali and tortured them.”
And depending on where you look on the internet in today’s society, you’ll always find an article which fits the narrative your looking for. But obviously with it being a London/western associated company, you’ll always have one eye on potential sanctions related to those countries and interests of those western parties.
All of this being said, I’m not naive or blind to the fact that there are real political concerns ongoing in Mali and regional countries. I’m just hoping, and remain convinced that what the board have in place, Sanankoro will remain on track to be a resounding success. But time will tell and investments can throw you unpredictable curve balls when you lease expect it
It would be nice to hear from BM. He’s spoken well before about operations in Mali not being affected so hearing about the regional support may bring in a little comfort to some. The ongoing work in the community is also a credit to the company.
LW, all I would say is look at Blackstone and Polymetal. The thing with most of these Aim stocks is having the resources and patience to ride out the tough times which might be lengthy. The big boys do. But they don't always get it right either.
The headlines in Mali, for me, are worryingly deteriorating each day. I'm not as much worried about Wagner but what atricutuesare currently being executed by government forces. You can only push a population so far.
I love the company but I don't see a need to rush in right now. Even with good drill results previously the price hasn't gone crazy. For me there's time.
If it’s bottomed why you throwing 6.5p out ?
AG1989 - really good and balanced post. Don't disagree with anything you have set out there. The project is outstanding and comes with solid growth potential. So its very much heart v head at the moment with this one.
I think ultimately what is a key factor, and what I have been telling myself, is that I'm just a single retail investor looking to put thousands into Cora. But Lionhead Capital is a proper investment firm, and they are looking to back Cora with circa £20 million pounds. Their risk assessment will be far more in depth and informed than anything we can come up with. And if the investment case in Cora (with the jurisdiction) is good enough for them, then should it not be good enough for the rest of us?
PFG - would the significant backing of Lionhead, which they are about to make, not make a difference for you in terms of jurisdictional concerns?
PFG - that's exactly how I feel. It is really is the "only" factor against Cora, which is damn frustrating, because this is otherwise a cracking investment proposition. Last year it wasn't so bad, because the country was on its way to elections and was mainly dealing with local militants, which you felt they would deal with once they had stability. Now it has a military coup, sanctions and threats of more to come. Some of the news stories I have read have suggested that Wagner/Russia are going for strategic assets in Mali. Now that might be propaganda, or it might not. I'm naturally concerned about what is going on in the country right now. Why wouldn't you be and what is the point of a bb if you can't discuss the potential risks with others?
OAPK20 - the fundraise is a fact. Which bit of that don't you understand? I've always made clear that I would look to enter around the time of the fund raise, whatever the price it is done at. Furthermore, this has already bottomed out. So I really don't need to de-ramp this at all.
I fully get the jurisdiction issue, and you have to factor in a fair share of risk with that. I can just see an end product, not your normal run of the mill end product, but something that is company changing and potentially life changing for investors
The majority of stocks on the London market I’ve had in Western Australia or Victoria, have really disappointed in delivering when looking back. Raise after raise after raise, millions plowed into assets that return very little value or even add much substance long term.(ECR/EEE) etc, far too long for something of substantial size to get going. That’s my personal biggest risk, hence me scoping out a number of opportunities in Africa
Russia has always been known as a safe haven with mining, purely with its mining culture environment and vast amount of reserves. And although the sanctions currently don’t directly affect EUA, they’re operating in a country where it’s leader is currently committing unthinkable acts of violence. I’m sure they were 40% up today and it will continue to remain extremely volatile for a long time. Many companies operating all over in the world in questionable jurisdictions, with high risk political factors. Factors which may down the line impact operations in one way or another. But I see many risks, beyond jurisdiction which I consider before an investment. Having proof of product isn’t that common, and at Cora we definitely have it
End of the day guys were all here to make money. If you two don’t feel like it’s an investment your comfortable with, then you won’t reap the rewards in the end. However if there are complications along the way, then it’s myself who stands to make a loss
The situation doesn’t look brilliant but I think Africa has always had high political and economic risks. If it wasn’t what was happening now, you’d be able to find numerous other issues. There was a military Coup last year and I’m sure there have been many other problems. Hummingbird down the road from Cora recently had security issues. So you may want to ask yourself, rather than focus on the term sheet, are these jurisdictions ever going to be places your comfortable with parting your money with ?
Had great discussions over the years with you both and hope you both decide to invest, but always look after number one. Il top up as and when I can. I may not find the bottom or the “6.5p” that comes but everybody has a different exit strategy, so there’s the same opportunity and money to be made. I knew sellers last year getting out at 12.5p, when a day later it hit 15p. I didn’t question them, that’s their prerogative. You have your margins and set out your goals. This for me, is a brilliant opportunity in the near to mid term to watch a junior explorer, transition into a mid tier company and give me 5-10X my investment in years to come.
LW you have been talking this down consistently. All you want is a cheaper entry. Sanctions, leaning to Russia, and the militant factions have dragged this down. So you retort to “placings” “dilution” etc etc. Like a broken record.
Wagner aren’t going to build the mine or mine the gold. You reckon Russia will be able to finance a Russian company to take over the licences and mine it ? Can Mali ?
I have to agree LW. The jurisdiction and the gradual progression into anarchy, although not a certainty, is the ONLY thing that holds me back form investing here.
They consistently get great grades in exploration, have a financing package lined up to become a producer and an excellent team. BUT all that means nothing if the country descends into mayhem.
Jurisdiction is always important but in the last two weeks it's almost my number one concern.
Thanks both, helpful to read your views. I agree, not really a great deal of difference between 6.5p - 7p.
The other aspect that is troubling me is the situation in Mali. Things have seemingly really deteriorated in recent months and the country has become a 'battleground' between civilian and military authorities, the West, Russia and local militants. The West, France in particular, is pulling out its troops because the military coup has turned to Russia for its 'security' needs. In particular, a private Russian group called Wagner, which is attracting some bad press right now. Mali has also been hit with international sanctions.
I don't think this will effect Cora's on the ground drilling operations, because I suspect they will be using local contractors. But the whole geopolitical situation right now means that international sanctions and Mali's realignment away from the West and towards Russia, could impact on western mining companies operating in the area.
Definitely not looking to de-ramp the stock, I'm actually looking to make a sizeable investment here around Term Sheet time, but I just wanted to discuss potential risks/concerns, to see how other people are viewing the situation, as the jurisdiction is becoming more of a concern for me than it was last year. I know PFG commented about the jurisdiction a few weeks ago. Everything has become more acute since the war in Ukraine, especially with the approach to unified sanctions. Would be good to hear from Bert Munro, as to whether any of this presents any concerns for Cora, or for Lionhead's intended investment.
https://www.gtreview.com/news/africa/fears-gold-mining-companies-could-be-hit-if-ecowas-mali-standoff-drags-on/
The striking part about this round of assays, is the connection surrounding the ongoing activities in the background.
They really were a well worked bunch of assays in 2021, evidence in a 100%+ share price, in a sector that had 12 months of being destroyed. If/when these new blockbuster assays come out, and peak the interest of new shareholders, when they realise the DFS is due to be Completed imminently and this triggers the term sheet for mine construction, you’ll get a lot stickier investment
So from my perspective, the term sheet shouldn’t be scrutinised to the nth degree before making a decision, the term sheet to me signifies and provides a strong basis for investment because it creates a story. It gives the company an opportunity to turn that 800,000 oz into hundreds of millions of £’s revenue. That term sheet is something I’ve not seen come about regularly in other investments where the grades and deposits flatter to deceive. It shouldn’t be looked on as a disadvantage or a road block in investing here, but a strong catalyst as to why Cora is a very safe bet.
The way I feel.......is that we are only maybe talking 1p difference in SP......between 6.5p post placing and 7.5p to buy today.(approx).......Like AG1989 says.....that 1p (almost just like a higher bid/offer spread really) could be surpassed pre trading on a positive RNS....and we are expecting that....so I topped up 100k first thing today.
GLA.
Il be buying regardless mate. If I work on that strategy and in 3 weeks time Cora release Bonanza 100g/t+ results/50m@15g/t/etc, confirming the strength of Sanankoro and this fly’s up, il kick myself. And the ground is that good
I understand where your coming from LW and always have but more importantly I understand the strength and fundamental at stake here. Having the Gold in the ground is one thing, having a definitive strategy in place to lead you towards production, that’s the catalyst. Extremely happy with my holdings now and if it goes to “6.5p”, il juggle my portfolio and add more. I’ve seen this go from 7p to 20p in a short space of time before with a term sheet already in place, as equally this could retract, it could go in the opposite direction.
Very happy with my Caracal holdings long term and the growth but I’m under no illusion, your still going to see a lot of dilution over there in payments for the Tanzanian assets, but I respect the strategy and have bought into it
But right now, Cora peaks my interest more than anything so stocks like this going under the radar never bothers me.
I believe Sanankoro and the respective permits surrounding it, have the capability to hold over 2Moz that’s an enormous upside from these levels.
AG1989 - Are you not expecting the price to pullback to the fundraise price? If so, at current levels, the fundraise will be done at circa 6.5p (10% discount on the VWAP), so would it not be better to wait until then before buying?
Just wondering how people how are approaching this as it will help with my own decision making.
This currently seems the strongest BUY in my portfolio. Capital drilling seem to work at an incredible pace and with the Gold laying so shallow, they can drill more holes in the same timeframe, then if your Gold was 300-400m at depth
Deposits open in most directions, if not all. Open at depth really interest me here. The stronger Gold was predicted up to 100m but it seems as they’ve gone beyond that, it’s keeping consistent.
Expecting the assays to be very strong again. The drilling campaign will be used to convert and upgrade the remainder of the inferred material, as well as expanding particular zones and get us nearer that 1 million
DFS well on its way to be competed which is huge. We were receiving assays last year on a 2 week basis so turnaround was extremely quick and if they want to tie these results in with the DFS, the company won’t mess around
Topping up no brainer.
yup just have........ 100k! also be mindful of what lies deeper.....when revenues permit......in the future!!!
Significant further expansion potential remains as all deposits remain open at depth and along strike. The MRE is based on around 7.5km surface expression of the total 33 linear km strike length of the potential mineralised zones identified in the 2018 Exploration Target of up to 2Moz within 100m of surface at Sanankoro (as reported by SRK Consulting (UK) Limited in October 2018). There are multiple higher grade ore shoots within the deposits, which offer the potential for higher grade production in early years of mining.
GLA!
7,500m drill programme. That is a lot of drilling. This company has provided fast and pretty good results. Interest should pick up in the coming weeks in anticipation of results.
Better increase holdings!
slowly slowly catchy monkey...Yup....nearer PFS/DFS....and further minelife from reserves converted from resources...imo
GLA BSB
Yup.
Interest today and the share is moving, anyone know why?
glad this is staying under the radar. loads of crazy movers over last week.
after a long time away from this game i'm going to start again and will just go all in with this share. just awaiting funds which should be in the next week or so. lots of upside. sensible bod. not too many nutters on here... what's not to like?
i'll say hi again when i buy in.
Fancy another big purchase here too ;) ?