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Munch ,what I dont understand is why you sold out of omi last week in mid twenties put a short on apparently ,then bought back here and now are kicking off .seems a wierd strategy . I sold a few omi at 40 p and topped up in cobr and ufo . I am reckoning on a few bottom fishing buys here and aaz soon .
Ggp ?
What planet are you on ?
Get your facts right before acting all brave again lol.
Oh. EL I hope you don’t mind the sp down another 6% today, let it not effect your mood mate or even your lunch for that matter.
The gold price - a dip, then take off, he thinks -
https://www.clivemaund.com/gmu.php?art_id=68&date=2020-10-18
Olderandwiser- you could possibly do any type of deal subject to land purchases or any other relevant issue but it does weaken your hand at the table.
Also I agree that EL wants us to play dead, he thinks we want to sabotage our own investment .... duuuhhhhh wake up mate, we are just being honest and as simms45 puts it there’s tiny companies who don’t produce / have no cash / no resource yet they have gold in their company name and are rising 3-400%.
Each to their own, with any of my investments I will always be fair and critisize if necessary, after all it’s better to be brave they pussy four about the sp dropping a few pence.
It’s a good job you don’t have time for me because I would bore you to death, instead your better off going fishing and reading books.
Tester breaks it down incredibly well but if anything his workings show that the bod should be around £200m because they end up paying about £50m with all the normal finance details so a £200m value is fair.
Surely ..... surely this would be on RIO bod discussion as a hedge going forward and it dam right is chicken feed to them.
Btw those 25k and 50k buys look very much like our JM nibbling. I actually hope it is not as that means little news imminent but we are back to silly season on valuation where Condor is worth less than two a penny explorers in the time old tradition of rinse and repeat but “gold in those moutains” somehow draws in the newbie, especially now. They will soon learn the placing equation and how that translates over 10 years of pain and 95% dilution. As we know when Condor does turn it will be a rapid ascendency as we will be in a tiny pool of explorers who ever make it to production.
Bear in mind when we are in production fully we would be producing the same gold output as Calibre and at a lower AISC. Therefore Condor can be worth £450m in years to come and a lot more. clearly it would be great for Calibre to make an approach as they are in a perfect place to do so and its noce to bring attention to Condor but MC and team own too much so it would need to be a friendly takeover. However takeovers only normally happen at say a 30% premium, not 300% premium as Calibre shareholders would think CEO had lost all senses. As i personally hoped would happen Calibre would agree the toll, we would kickstart full finance and mine build. we would reach £1.50 a share in about 6-12 months and then Calibre would make their offer of £2 and everyone is happy but that window would only be open for a short time because in production we would be closer to an equal of Calibre. Personally happy to see Condor through to production as dividends would quickly come into the mix as i am sure MC and other lths would expect it given the extra wait. Condor has serious value to Calibre and can see the toll deal could happen with a stake in Condor etc as if you were Calibre at £450m debt free you hold the cards at the table and sadly MCs hand is a little weak today. Things can move quickly and we could easily be over £1 by christmas with some momentum but today we just need to secure that land RNS to recalibrate the mojo and get back on that pony towards the finish line. always a few steps back before big step forward and stakes are high.
I'll keep with this thread.
Warrants
I have a more sanguine view of the warrant situation. On a short term trading basis it does seem to matter as the market price drifts back to the warrant price. Medium and longer term, it's less so as Condor nears production. We also need to remember the context. There have been various tranches issued at different strike prices:
2,372,915 warrants at exercise price of 31p. Expiry date 7 February 2021
3,240,421 warrants at exercise price 25p. Expiry date 15 July 2022
8,639,330 warrants at exercise price 40p. Expiry date 28 May 2023
So 40p is not the lowest price. We have to assume that the deals done were driven by the availability of funding at the time, the incentives needed for investors to part with it, and of course the market price. Overall the warrants add up to circa 14.25m which would represent another £5m or so in the bank if exercised. Shares in issue are circa 118m so the warrants would add another 12% or so, albeit it also represents potential cash in the bank. The 11.85m stock options are also at different strike prices with the 3.7m 2020 version at 42p. Not exactly in the money at the moment but it remains an incentive to move the market price northwards. All of which will be lost in the rounding if we can move towards meaningful production in a matter of months. Sure, some will take the short term money and run but the prize is still there to be had. It's the price we have to pay to get it, unpalatable though it may be to people who feel the need to watch the price on a minute by minute basis.
Will Condor sell?
It has to be an option although I'm dubious about whether the board will sell at anything below 125p. £100m would be a real try-on although it would not surprise me to see RIO or Calibre have a go. If I throw in the warrants and options my 125p would probably be more like £180m. Even at that price I would not feel particularly rewarded for over ten years of investment loyalty. I doubt MC\JM would think much different.
News
I thought we might get something around now, although I'm not seeing any white smoke from the chimney. Perhaps November. It would make sense for MC to close and deals while on site, assuming he manages to negotiate his way through this Covid world. Has anyone got a clear idea what his current location is? As mentioned before, being on the other side of the Pond is not a prerequisite for progress, but it would certainly be an opportunity to sign off anything that needed signing off while on site.
Excellent post ElectricLion. I think frustration is being vented, that is all. We all want to see this project come to fruition and many are still in the red, which doesn't help. I am certain Mark is labouring away in the background, and with plenty of skin in the game, will do his best to get true shareholder value. £100M is a little over 80p a share, and agree this wouldn't be excepted in my opinion, but any offer here would see us re-rate overnight. I guess that is why none has been made yet.
Ok, let's all join the Happy Clappy Club and roll over and play dead. Meanwhile, the POG is near an all time high, other gold explorers are on a roll. Everything is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
tester, very good points, except that MC/JM wouldn't sell out for £100m, whatever the opinions of PIs on here, and Calibre knows it, or they would have tried already (IMHO). A hostile approach would be unlikely to gain the majority of shares, given the amount MC/JM own (I'm assuming MC and JM act as one in this regard, they seem pretty close). So it's a bit less of a no-brainer for them, given that they'd have to offer a fair value. That said, it's probably more up to what Rio want long-term and any number Condor might want is pretty small beer to Rio, so it just depends what their strategy is.
cf, there was a condition that consturction should start within 18 months of the permits being granted. We weren't going to hit that, so we applied for, and were granted, an extension. To when, I'm not certain, but if there is a new date, we wouldn't really want to miss that one too, unless there really was no alternative. However, while I am no lawyer, I would think that any such committment would be between Condor and the Nic government, so if Condor was taken over, that contract would probably not apply. I don't know if the permits would even still be valid, or if Calibre/Rio would have to re-apply for them, although that would be a formality in any case.
While I understand the frustration with time slipping by, I am somewhat suprised and dissapointed by the amount of complaining on here at the moment. I'll excuse mb and ss69, as frankly I have no time for either. Everyone else however, remember why you're invested in the first place and accept that which you cannot change. Sell up if you don't believe in the project or it's management (as anyone should do with any investment), but otherwise, you know by now what MC's MO is, it ain't gonna change, so make your peace with it or move on. It's not an easy job, and it won't be made any easier by entitled armchair hecklers doing their best to sabotage their own investment by constantly whinging on message boards.
Should really look into this myself but struggling for time at present.
When we were granted the permits, did the agreement say we have to build a processing plant? I'm pretty sure there will be issues if calibre just came in, trucked all the ore to la libertad and there were minimal to no jobs for the locals. Surely that wouldn't go down well at all.
AF - Calibre is Rio Tinto by proxy, clever to have another vehicle doing your bidding in country and thus avoid raising prices by having your name directly associated with a purchase/takeover. Something just has to give here.. this project is too far advanced now.. what would be the rationale for Calibre just buying CNR ? FWIW my thoughts are: (happy to hear all of yours too!)..
1) Their market cap is £450M and they are debt free. They could just issue new shares and offer to buy CNR for £100M, 25% dilution. Or take on cheap debt and use that.
2) Its ready to go now. 2Moz of high grade gold permitted, with almost all studies complete.
3) It fits their new hub and spoke operating model in Nicaragua, i.e truck high grade ore to existing plants
4) Save initial $50M-$120M CAPEX by just trucking the ore..
5) Much higher grades than being processed at La Libertad right now at $1900 gold, so insanely profitable and will take up the slack / idle capacity there
6) The $200M of gold in Mestiza alone would more than recoup their purchase price, never mind America and La India
7) They would inherit about $60M CNRs capital expenditure which they could use to offset their tax bill from gold sales at Libertad, Limon - 30% corp tax so would save them $20M?
8) Potential to keep drilling and expand the resource to 5Moz easily - 20k metres drilling to 3M, more drilling on Cacao to bring that up to 1Moz total.
9) Condor even has $10M cash in the bank.
Lets just say they offered to buy CNR at $130M or £100M.
They would save $50M CAPEX by not building a new plant at La India / paying wages etc (so effectively $80M purchase)
They could offset tax of $20M (so effectively $60M purchase).
They would get $10M cash (so effectively $50M purchase).
Over 2Moz of high grade gold, with potential for 5Moz for an effective purchase price of $50M ? i.e $10-25 an ounce?
I think any price offered by Calibre/Rio would be way below what MC/JM/We want tbh, but it could be a starting gun for others. I would prefer to wait another 2 years for production / even higher gold prices..
So to me, its looking like a no brainer for Calibre/Rio Tinto to make a bid for Condor, surely, surely something has to give here, and you would think they would want to do it before MC signed any deal for a 2nd hand processing plant at $50M if they wanted to use their hub and spoke operating model just to truck the ore!
regards
T123
Hawaiifive0.
You summarised it to the bone without me spilling my beans.
Spot on. I hold stock but as I mentioned before he’s very clever at keeping investors interested by mentioning a snippet that eagle eyed guys pick Up on ... elaborate and create a fake positive momentum.
It still bugs me when I held these and he was bragging about B2 good testing the ore , he basically told us the toll was nailed on ... only for B2 to sell out to calibre.
I always hate people who BS, I don’t think MC does but my gosh he is border line With that and I just Hope once land is acquired he fast tracks the project with a farm out rather than dilute investors again. !!!!
hawaii - you've posted that or v similar several times over an extended period. We get it. But can't do anything about it now - even MC can't, even if he regrets it.
The best answer is for MC to generate some meaningful progress. We are on the cusp, and I hope that the continuing silence from the company into a quarter when we are expecting significant developments (only thing we get seems to be by PIs digging around trying to find titbits ..) is a good sign.
But I do agree, its been a poor show for a long time now - exceptionally disappointed by MC and his seeming contempt for ordinary PIs, and just hoping that the results which are eventually generated for the big investors and MC himself benefit us lowlife too.
So challenge himself and quit repeating yourself on here. Let us know the response.
The poor share price is a direct result of action taken by Mark Child himself, he was the one that issued a massive 9m warrants priced at a farcical 40p with a 2 year strike. A significant headwind for a illiquid and thinly traded stock.
I have also noticed that Condor only seem to release meaningful news ahead of a fund raise, the pattern has been replicated a few times if folk care to look deeper. Since the fund £6.6m raise in May there has been no news worthy of comment.
In a nutshell retail investors, i.e. the ones that want to see some share price appreciation along the way, are at the mercy of Mark Child who talks a good game but has delivered very little shareholder value, the rather pathetic attempts to demonstrate the company is materially undervalued are undermined by crazy warrant strike prices, if he felt the company was so undervalued why not have a strike price of 60p or 70p with a 2 year term at the last raise ?
The guy needs to be challenged in a meaningful way over this, the sector is in a boom phase and Condor are going no-where fast. A poor show IMO.
Andrew I don't doubt you (apart from me copywriting Keep the faith lol)......maybe it was me reading last night (a bottle of wine later) but I felt a lot of negativity (advfn) when as you say we have it all to play for!
As we found on Friday, as soon as the price is dropped, it is almost impossible to buy and the price quickly bounces back!
Someone knows, and this time reminds me of pre permits when everyone knew they were coming and the price would rise but we waited and waited and waited...................this time I have bought up to 100k in advance so bring it on!!
Isa my take was quite the opposite of yours, I would say the messaging (apart from the nutters) is very positive. I am quire sure that Mark will pull something highly significant out of the bag in the very near future.
Morning All
Reading some of the messages across LSE and Advfn yesterday you would think we were about to crash with the world falling apart around MarK Child and CNR.
A cynical person may have thought individuals were trying to scare smaller shareholders into selling, driving the price down on low volume...............God forbid!!
Nothing has changed in my opinion and we still require 7% or was it 8%, to 100% own the development. Mark's timescale was by Xmas and unless I am wrong we still have 2 months and counting!
We are so near I guess its natural for opportunistic traders and guess we are all here to make money!
How may RNS'S till we boom!
In my words 'Keep the faith'.....sorry Andrew he he