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When we look at all those trades late in the day & you look at tomorrow morning's RNS on the buy-back & open the link contained within it, to see the actual trades themselves, we'll find most of these late trades were manufactured by Merrill Lynch in order to get stock for the buy-back.
They have very rarely tried to buy-back stock early in the morning even on the few day's there actually been reasonable volume to go on.
We also have to remember that 94.5K is currently 0.1% of the company & although $10M doesn't sound a lot it equates to around 4.7% of the company's value & a buy-back of that size is quite large even although we're only talking of 4.5M shares.
Trading volumes are probably also subdue due to the $100M not being in shareholders hands yet so they aren't able to re-invest it in buying the shares they lost to the consolidation !!! volume = more shares bought back.
LOTM
HI Bigbas2all.
Take a look at the RNS it shows the daily buy backs in there yesterdays was over 60K
Hi Bigbas2all,
I'm sorry I can't really answer your question because I don't actually know the answer, all I can possibly give is some of my own thought's on it.
They stopped the buy-back on 5th August & it didn't start again until after the special dividend & share consolidation were done. I have found no reason why it was stopped other than the fact that Bank of America suddenly at that point took an active interest in acquiring a significant voting stake in the company. I assumed that this was causing a conflict of interest on there behalf & that was the reason for the halt. Now that might be true it might be totally wrong or it might be part of the reason.
Why are they not buying in large chunks at these prices, well its all to do with the volume of stock traded on a particular day, particularly the amount being sold into the market. Bank of America are meant to mop that up & then sell it on to Capricorn.
So on days of mainly purchases very little stock gets bought-in on days of lots of sales they should acquire lots more stock. The closing auctions are also a very important part of the process & a large % of the daily buy-back's occur there.
I would love them to be buying in 100's of thousands of shares a day at these prices, but sadly the volume is simply not there for it to happen.
News event's usually create much more trading than normal & therefore allow much more stock to be bought-in because of the higher volume. Sadly Capricorn isn't going to have any news event in the coming month's ( they don't do drilling results etc) the only focal point I can see is around this webcast on Egypt around the end of November.
I should say just to be clear I don't think the company can use a buy-back to push up the price of its shares by buying stock directly in the market, it can only soak-up what's coming to market & going through it.
I have even been considering acting as a sort of conduit to increasing trading volume, by that I mean selling some of my stock & then buying it back from other market makers at roughly the same price (given daily market moves) & that way my "sales" could effectively be bought by the company because of the higher volume etc. But that carry's risks to me as the price could jump against me.
As you know I'm all for having as few shares in issue as possible, especially when the assets of the company are worth so much more than the current share price, which is very much the case with Capricorn, as I have the assets currently worth over £4 per share now & rising with each passing buy-back.
LOTM
LOTM.
Why are there not large buys backs of the shares at these prices, plus the clock is ticking, for them to complete pre Xmas.
Any information excepted.
Company Website has finally been updated to reflect the share ownership as at 6th October.
This is name, new position, old position, number of shares & percentage owned of the 95.224M in issue at that date
Goldman Sachs collateral account 1 1 10,647,270 11.18
Newtyn Partners 2 2 8,816,666 9.26
Palliser Capital 3 3 7,431,767 7.80
Kite Lake Capital Management 4 4 7,163,629 7.52
Madison Avenue Partners 5 6 6,233,034 6.55
Irenic Capital Management 6 5 6,188,126 6.50
Dimensional Fund Advisors 7 7 4,335,427 4.55
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 8 8 4,312,448 4.53
Vanguard Group 9 9 3,985,847 4.19
So Irenic Capital's holding was down by 0.31% from that of 8th Sept, Vanguard was down a tiny amount.
Blackrock used to own 3.13% as of 8th Sept so they have clearly fallen below the 3% threshold since then, yet no notification of such has been issued to the company.
Centiva Capital who had acquired the voting rights to 3.01% of the company around the 22nd Sept don't show on the list & we know Bank of America have a far larger holding in the company's voting rights than is listed above, but the record seems to only show shares owned not actual voting rights.
LOTM
RagstoRich,
You're right, the main bet is on Egypt longer term & on the price of oil (as gas sales seem to be under a fixed price agreement).
Which is why them hiring Randy with a good track record of working in Egypt previously as CEO was a very smart move I'd say.
Shorter term you have these other potential payments - 3 from the Waldorf UK assets over the next 3 years that could yet yield considerable amounts of cash depending on the oil price etc.
Then you have a straight bet on whether Woodside gets production started in Senegal by 30th June next year. If it does then I'd say your pretty much guaranteed the $50M payment given how the oil market is shaping up. Now $50M between 315M shares previously would have been $0.158 per share, between 142M shares (after May) it would have been worth $0.352 per share. Now it would be worth roughly $0.55 (91M shares after the buy-back) & I can see a scenario where there is a further special dividend & share consolidation before Jan 2025 meaning the payment would be around $0.694 per share on 72M shares in issue.
So in that regard all eyes will be on whether the FPSO sets sail in Q1 next year for Senegal because we're now talking about a very significant payment compared to before on a per share basis.
But the beauty of the "bet" is that the cash inside the company already makes up a significant percent of the current market cap & that cash amount will grow rapidly from January onwards.
Egypt seems to be making a lot of progress with the IMF about loans etc, it needs to keep its own gas production up because of its energy needs, so if there isn't new investment it will decline & no-one is going to invest more if they are not getting paid in a timely manner.
LOTM
LOTM - I dont disagree with you, but by investing in CNE you are effectively betting on Egypt.
Even if the assets make money, CNE dont get paid. Egypt is in a bad way financially and has hardly any USD. With the current situation in the ME, things could get worse, especially now that Israel gas has been shut off to Egypt and Egypt may have to reduce its LNG exports (a major source of USD for them).
Good luck.....
Goldman Sach's continue to increase there overall voting interest in Capricorn time & time again.
They own most of it then they seem to sell it but not the voting rights then they buy it back & slowly but surely there interest in Capricorn grows & grows.
There are 4 institutions out there who have bought the voting rights to like 19% of the company that they don't actually own !!
Still not sure how that is possible with no-one supposedly shorting it !
LOTM
GrumpusLOL
I didn't say "we'd all be millionaires" next year, but regarding total return (not just share price) the market is wrong, very wrong going forward.
Market cap $200M
Net Cash in bank after special dividend & share buy-back payments $62.5M+
Net receivables due $108M+
Therefore Egypt is currently valued at under $30M.
If you disregard the contingent payments that are due in 2024-26 from Waldorf & the possible Senegal payment in 2025 if production there starts by 30th June 2023.
If you give any value to the above (& there is definitely going to be a payment due for 2023 from Waldorf) then Egypt is given literally no value.
Yet it made a gross profit in the 1st half of the year even with the burden of all the existing G&A costs. Once it is free from such costs the bank balance will start to grow month by month & thus funds will be available to pay to shareholders in the form of normal dividends & I'm not talking about 2 or 3p per share, I'm talking double digit numbers.
So I look forward to discussing this again with you in a year's time.
LOTM
All good. More important is the target price coming up 1.40 to 1.50 range.
Jam tomorrow.
Next year we will all be millionaires Rodney.
Same story as the previous decade.
I look forward to reviewing next year. Just remember the exact words, The market is wrong, very wrong.
Mr.kioto
I found this on the company website, while trying to see if the shareholder register data had been updated (which its not, its still from 8th Sept)
Performance table:
Share price development
Instrument 1M change % 3M change % 52W change % 5 years change % 52W high & low
Capricorn Energy(LSE) -4.71% -13.99% -29.34% -23.07% H: 263.19 L: 149.79
They also have a share chat you can view to
LOTM
GrumpusLOL
Overheads are being reduce & have been for months now, the saving will ONLY start to show up in the numbers from 2024 onwards. They told you that G&A this year would be the same as last year, just look in the half year report, in reducing the staff numbers from 200 to 30 through 2023. Redundancy costs were £12M in the 1st half of the year, £16M for an office they no longer need, sky high ESOP costs, LTIP etc.
I'll happily have this conversation again with you in a year's time because the market is wrong badly wrong.
I'm happy to be accumulating at these prices inside 2 years, the shares will be yielding north of 20% (on the current share price) in normal regular dividends.
LOTM
Anyone else suffering? Kill the ad and have a grey box covering the message area, have to type blind Chris on last message should have read C N E but was auto corrected.
Chris now at 462 in the FTSE. Tullow is at 341. When there was talks of a merger, they were within 10 places of each other in the FTSE 150.
From 392 pence in Dec 22 to 166 pence today. There is no point in arguing about what percentage the recent drop has been. It has more than halved. Period.
Consolidation is meant to maintain share value after a payout. It has failed. Again.
Those who are advocating that there will be a remarkable turnaround in fortunes next year are in a tiny minority.
Jam tomorrow. Same old story.
If revenue has gone up and overheads reduced, why has share value crashed?
No confidence is the only feasible explanation.
Or is the market mistaken?
Time to wake up and smell the coffee I think.
Looks like Mr Kioto also doesn't understand share consolidations.
All his other comments also lose credibility.
Mr.kioto,
I don't want to get into an argument about it but your reliable trading platform is wrong.
The share price hasn't been above £2 since about the end of May the lowest its been is £149.80 intra-day so that is a 25% decline max. (see the chart when you look at the share price hereon LSE)
Its certainly not down 27.87% in a month, sadly the trading platform can't deal with share consolidations correctly.
LOTM
Also LOTM to your remark of 3 month trading loss not being accurate: per a reliable trading platform to date CNE stock is down:
1 day: -3.51%
1 week: -8.32%
1 month -27.87%
3 month: -42.28%
6 month: -78.34%
we all know due to the current activities... but when I post numbers.. I know what I am talking about.
Mr.kioto
Personally I wouldn't want a take-over unless its north of £3.50 a share.
This is going to be a significant cash-cow in the coming years.
LOTM
Hi Fossiltime,
There are several factors at play.
These large payouts & share consolidations make the company much smaller than it used to be. Before the institutions probably owned 95%+ of the company, as it drops out of some of these index's those insto's have to sell out depending on there investment criteria.
That gaps needs to be filled by PI's but very few of them are looking at Capricorn currently & unless they do some deep research on it, probably won't see much to interest them. I'm not even sure the Egypt update at the end of November will get many onboard.
The new board are transforming the company & you will be handsomely rewarded in due course, but it takes time for all that has been done so far to show up in the numbers. The first real glimpse we'll get is in the 2023 year end report, but that won't be published until late March/early April I'd say.
The share reduction's (consolidations) are actually adding a lot of value to those who keep themselves fully invested (ie re-invest the dividends). Yes the payouts are reducing the value of the business, but that value is now shared by a far smaller number of shares.
The share price is moving on very little volume, I know its very frustrating, but things are getting better inside the company & that will start to show up in the future payment's they'll make to shareholders in the form of normal dividends, which I'm pretty sure will start up next year.
LOTM
Chat room - take notes... this share has a ways downwards to go. I repeat the only
way I see any upward movement is:
1. 2 consecutive quarters of positive earnings reported.
2. Merger / acquisition news.
This stock movement is very similar to the last 2 consolidations, nothing new here just the cycle playing out.
LOTM-13 - We agree on most of the topics, but CNE lean and mean and IF they post up
consecutive quarters of amazing earnings, then yes a merger is likely. I would not be surprised if the BOD purposely planned to:
1. trim the fat
2. focus on maximizing revenues out of Egypt
3. show outstanding profit vs last year
with an express purpose to sell or merge in the future.
Why is it each one of these swaps i seem to loss money and value. Nobody seems to believe in anything which ever board we have that more of the same is better.
Chatroom,
Yes the sp might fall further, most of that volume today is from a single trade, a couple of days ago the volume was as lopsided to the buy side.
There are 4 Insto's who have borrowed stock & are increasing there holdings so they will use whatever means they can to shake stock loose.
Hopefully the buy-back bought that 78k lot earlier, if not they have a lot of munching to do. They are looking to spend another £7.5M before the end of the year. That's over 4M more shares (over 4% of the company) in just 10-11 weeks (so roughly 400,000 shares a week or 80,000 a day, every day to Xmas).
LOTM
Looking at the selling Volume and comparing to the buying Volume the SP looks as though it has a long way to fall?????