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https://*********************/companies/usa/industrial-metals-nonferrous/caledonia-mining-corporation-plc/research/liberum/liberum-caledonia-mining-initiation-ugly-duckling-becoming-a-golden-swan-in-zimbabwe/1_4453036e-1c34-4693-b67b-969d92f4e7c6
I think this one scores by being very well managed. It's got a progressive dividend record even when the gold price was much lower. AISC low and energy costs heavily reduced by introduction of solar plant. Also maintains good relations with Zim govenment
It’s for sure a good divi payer, forward yield at a tad over 5% now.
My concern is will the divi be increased if they secure and aquisition to mitigate the single mine risk?
I doubt it as obviously they would want to preserve cash.
So as an income play it has organic risks from single mine and capex expansion.
So next question is would the increase in nav drive the sp if they acquire another prospect?
Possibly but the flavour of this market is realistically unlikely at least until they can see it generating revenues. A new operation comes with new risks.
At best the sp will market time and at best the divi will remain. Any increase in Blanket revs from the new shaft would likely be used to manage growth.
All unknowns and therefore speculation atm but it’s how I read it from the sidelines.
Such a shame as I really rate this company and if it wasn’t for the fact I wanted this for income now I would take the plunge but atm I am still undecided.
Good luck with your investments
Usual caveats
Trek
I agree CMCL is very cheap, with a 12 month forward P/E of 3.3
PAF have forward P/E of 4
SHG's forward P/E is 6.6 so I'm not sure I agree that it's particularly cheap compared with other junior miners?
Another divi due this month. This is amazing value at current price. Along with SHG it's the cheapest gold share on the market.
Van Eck ETF has dropped a fair bit in 22, following the wider market. More or less on pat with CMCL's drop.
I had a quick look at the P/E's of some of their top 10 and I could see nothing that looked remotely attractive compared with CMCL's fundamentals.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vaneck-vectors-etf-junior-gold-miners-ucits#:~:text=Aim%3A-
I did see a prediction, gold production world wide is due to contract over the next two years. If that is true, we could be on to a very good thing.
... reduced their holding on 21/6/22.
I guess we buy these shares because the fundamentals are compelling, like being cash rich with a P/E of 4, but they are only this compelling because junior miners operating in Africa are not in favour. Average P/E in the mining industry is around 9, so I guess companies like CMCL will just stay cheap relative to their peers as long as that attitude continues.
Pan African has similarly strong fundamentals which are also not reflected in their current SP.
We remain exactly where we were, it feels like weeks ago! Will still get our Divi and the POG is sure to move up, surely? Peter Schiff says the US will be both in recession soon, and unable to control inflation. Plus a another round of QE when QT has failed and the cost of debt realised with rising interest rates. Trillion Dollars/pa! They (all of us) are in trouble!
Would be nice to see Goldman's prediction of $2500 POG for 2023 come true. At that level CM's net profit would be doubled! We would be looking at £20/share....
Especially as there's a chunky shareholder on 16%.
Happy to hold here and will buy a few more should there be a dip. There is good news to come. Perhaps a new gold deposit or old mine elsewhere in Zim is on the cards besides the recent purchase? Learmoth hinted in the interactive interview. Zimbabwe seems to be much more stable or conducive to mining business than a few years back with Mugabe at the wheel. When this new mine shaft is complete by the end of 2022, we should see a steady increase in gold production and hopefully a much higher POG? What is not to like?
Depends what your motivation for investing is. This is a low cost, efficient gold miner with a good dividend track record. I'm happy to hold for the payouts and top up if it falls back to £9 (my buy in price)
Unless there are any near term catalysts to drive the share price and re-invigorate some momentum in it, the only option will be to continue to gradually raise the dividend. Otherwise this will continue trading like a government bond.
Another good update. Management always seems to deliver here. Production currently at top end of estimates in 1st quarter and additional power to be provided by PV's within the next few months to reduce costs. Also "An ore stockpile of approximately 14,000 tonnes, containing approximately 1,500 ounces of recoverable gold, was accumulated during the Quarter. This is not included in the gold production for the Quarter". I think production estimates will be comfortably beaten at year end.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-07/zimbabwe-imposes-capital-controls-to-stem-currency-s-slide?srnd=premium-europe&sref=melRK1Xn
A statement from the Company whether and what the implications are for the business, if any, would be helpful.
Shot across the bow for Mark Learmonth!
This is a very efficient company and very profitable at todays gold price. I can see the divi edging up further this year and happy to hold these
I wish we were on our way to £20, but sadly I think we'd need a med-long term POG of >$2500/Oz to get there......