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As long term investor, with no need to sell,would be content for bid to fail and accept sp of 700 in the short term. Maybe i am on my own here.
Coming round to PKs view that the risk reward for PIs is to sell now.
While I think an improved offer is likely, the upside is limited to 10-30p from 920.
The downside is the bid goes through at 883 or fails in which case 700 looms again.
Oh, and the complex biologic is part of a treatment regimen with a novel cell therapy coming out of a brand new facility that has yet to be approved and manufactured by a company that has not been able to find a new CEO in six months.
Back to your timeframe and risk appetite. Good luck.
Depends on your time horizon and risk appetite. Can’t see a bid from Triton much higher than the current, maybe low 9s. No new bidder emerged. Advent had a good look last year, their deal with SOBI fell through so have plenty of firepower but seemingly not interested in coming back in.
If you have 3 years then hold on, a fair wind, regulatory approval for Iovance, them not being bought out by the wrong partner, Covid disappearing and no supply chain issues for a complex biologic and you could be in the money!
Ha, thanks jiddy.
Not doing doom and gloom at all. Know a lot of people who want this to happen and I hope for them it does. Just look at the 8.3’s though….this is moving away from being a done deal. Triton will not chase to the point there is a premium on 915. Couple of key players here, they may block the deal, hope they have a plan if/when they do.
Sold 20% at 921. Appears to be some action.
Out too soon?
Nd
"Word on the street" - a leg-end in your own mind PK!
You have sold out PK, so cut the "doom & gloom" posts as nobody is listening!
Thanks Darren
There was management change last year
Darren leaver is very good and is apart of Bionical
Yes it’s follow on
Bionical.
One of the Leavers follow on companies I believe. Word on the street is it needs a much more experienced management team.
Agree
Watch out for Bionical Based in Derby Marina
Andrew and Linda leaver have been big sellers in the last week. If anyone has a view on any inside feelings it will be them.
The risk to the downside is so much higher than upside for any retail investor. The hedge funds are playing a totally different game.
Have sold all my holdings. If the vote is no I may buy back in after the price bombs, you have to believe Elliot et al have a plan if that happens.
The vote is now set for 18 Jan
HL has given me until 13 Jan to place my votes.
If you vote for the deal you really should sell while the market price is higher……giving more power to the no voters.
The game of chicken runs until about 10 Jan, although the silence is deafening.
I think we are agreed, it is a long way from being a done deal.
From the limited amount I know about Triton, they won’t chase it that far. Elliot and the recent buyers will decide whether this happens. Think everyone else would happily take their money and move on!
Pharma karma, I don’t smoke anything.
I am commenting on the psychology of the deal…Triton having got the Board onside will not want to lose the deal, and they start with few shares committed. Without an increase in the offer they are unlikely to get the deal done…..it will be a game of chicken between Triton and the institutional investors.
If there is an improved bid, it needs to be more than the 1% to get to 900. 5% minimum which takes the 883 to 927. I would agree more than 950 is unlikely.
Triton is investing money in a fund, it does not carry the asset itself, making it more likely it can fund a higher offer as it cannot be directly punished in the market itself for over paying.
This deal is a long way from done.
If you think that Triton will increase their offer to that level in this macro economic environment and probably now knowing more about the inherent risks in the business then, please don’t take this the wrong way, can I have some of what you are smoking? They might get it to £9 but not much more.
If it gets rejected, enjoy the ride, will be a while before it gets here again.
??
Not sure there will be a competing bid…..but as said by others the big institutions will demand and get a higher price.
930-950 to get the votes to make the bid work….
Now 5 days and some fall in sp but still some way north of offer price.
Excellently thought through and probably right on the money.
If there were to be another offeror in the wings, one would expect him to declare fairly soon, hopefully with a knockout counter offer. At least Triton is unable currently to steal a march with the sp so far above the value of its offer.
A takeout price would probably need to be north of 950p, without any unimpressive referencing to the pending dividend, which came across rather as an apology for the meagre price ... didn't work.
Yes! They will look to group with other major holders and say they will reject unless a higher offer. The bulk of their holding has an average price down in the low 6’s. They are trying to buy leverage. They will have identified a group of likeminded and get to the 25% mark to give their threat some weight. Will be a game of call my bluff…..if Triton walk, the price will crash, Elliot will demand management changes and then implement the same strategy but with a different board and management team…. a much longer and higher risk process to get pretty much to the same point.
Do you think they want a hire offer given their purchases over 900p ?
yes, very interesting, i've often seen prices spike over offers on the table briefly before, but this is now basically a couple of days down the line and it's crept up a noticeable amount over that offer, so perhaps there is legs in that prediction/hope of a second interested party