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Given we are only at the 19th June (and the proper numbers need to filter through for the 4 day weekend) it should be good for circa $900M plus at the North American Box Office.
What everyone's thoughts?
shazabo you need to learn to stop posting on its threads or even wasting your time responding. They have won if you do.
I'm happy to go for the
*$900M NA Box Office
* No covenant RNS at the end of the month (as its an internal test)
* Distinct possibility if Nisan Cohen pulls all the right levers that they might satisfy on the RCF.
* And if Paramount have any sense they might just bring forward Mission Impossible 7 and giving Warren Buffet a good start to his investment.
Foward to when thou, I think august is too late now, maybe September, I’m not even sure it’s completed, as I read something today
Top Gun and Jurassic seem to be holding fairly well so hopefully continue to add reasonably in remainder of month.
Buzz underperforming badly.
Elvis and Black Phone the final weekends releases aren't forecast for such big numbers.
So, I dont see us hitting the $1bn some reports had earlier and some on here thought possible/probable. (It was probably my own absolute upper limit if EVERYTHING performed well and Buzz falling short is probably going to prove most of that shortfall).
Feel we should see $900m or there abouts. With some strong performance maybe even get just ahead of December's $921m (might be a stretch now though continued strong carry over from Top Gun and over performance from Elvis might, just might get us there).
If we see c. $900m then that's good area to be at giving us c. 80% of 10 year pre COVID average for month .
Then onto July which also holds real promise.
Before couple weaker looking months again (though often are).
Tom cruise words sammy not mine or maybe some journalist
Funvester your back, not been here for a while. Lightyear is a bit of a disaster, hope this doesn’t put Disney off. There always going to be one big film that under performs, but my god is topgun over performing. Let’s hope elvis got some legs
I wonder if he is shooting mission 8, does anyone know ?
Hi Cruis,
Buzz was a let down to be fair. It certainly is no Toy Story.
With that in mind it is (so far) performing about on par with Disney/Pixar other recent efforts in similar field.
Saw Black Phone last night so that's me up to date with the limited releases we still have.
Good enough film, but it doesn't add the serious money.
Happy with May and June overall.
Thor looks loghthearted silly fun so interested to see how strongly or otherwise that performs.
Top Gun blasting it's way to $1bn+ is nice.
I want to see the black fone, not much else left apart from Thor & bullet train,
Sometimes volume is irrelevant.
I have never been to the cinema as much as now even with lower volume... why? not sure.. post covid pent up need to just go the cinema, still enjoy it. some really good films despite the low volume.
If there are 5 films per month (now) vs 15 films per month (per covid), the volume will make no difference as I will still only watch 2-3 films per month at the cinema. This just means its easier to choose as there is no choice..
I prefer when decent movies are cascaded as your more likely to watch them at the cinema if for example top gun and black panther 2 was released at the same time I would probably on watch BP2 if there was a 2 to 3 weeks between them I would watch both at the cinema imo it allows for people to watch more at pics and would generate more revenue
GLA
I think $920m+ is a definite, beating Dec 2021. I agree this month's looking like it wont get to a billion now after Lightyear's relative under-performance (unless Elvis and Blackphone over-perform) but should still finish close at $950m+
@silvesy, I’m very much the same way. I didn’t go to the cinema often prior to pandemic but now I have an unlimited card and go when I can.
It is also worth remembering the increase in concessionary spend we saw last year. So compared to pre-pandemic, people are spending more on concessions than before. This is great considering how how the profit margin is on such items. Just one combo deal equals the hourly wage for one worker.
This company has huge profitable potential, the cinema business model has proved watertight in all kinds of economic conditions, and has also proved itself to be quite rigorous when it comes to competition, blu-ray, DVD, on demand never took down the business model, and I expect the exact same to occur with streaming.
@mountainous im at Blackpool Pleasure Beach today, the concessions here make Cine concessions look like a bargain lol
Hopefully people having digested IR's response on the covenants and realising that if its an internal test then there shouldn't be any RNS's popping up that others seem to have been coveting or waiting on.
Yes it looks like a very good month indeed on the revenue front.
Would be nice to have an RNs update like last July prior to the interim results which headlined
'Further Liquidity and Covenant Flexibility Secured' so that investors and markets are more at ease with their current position..
Oh well If it happens it happens, SP is doing OK...ish last couple of trading days in any case
Still expect an RNS in short term as we have the Regal Dissenting shareholders balance of payment due before end of month (company in discussions to further extend that deadline which already come at a financial cost).
What do you mean it’s an “internal test”? It’s a test that they have to pass to meet the requirements of external lenders.
If they pass the RCF covenant test then I wouldn’t necessarily expect an RNS saying so. Any of the other possible outcomes though (refinancing or paying down 65% to avoid the test - or a successful waiver or failure of the test and an unsuccessful waiver) will certainly merit an RNS.
I expect an RNS on that as well but it probably won't come in the month of June. More likely July and hopefully recent strengths in Box Office enables them to have paid it off and discharged it. But we shall see.
@BlueBuxton lol, reminds me of how Cineplex owns some recreational businesses as well
I think it was mentioned recently that there's a good possibility CINE may use any recent cash income to pay down the RCF on a given date and report this to all relevant parties. There is nothing stopping them from then drawing back a percentage of the RCF if needed to finally settle the balance owed to Regal shareholders (2 birds with 1 stone). No sign of the ****passage or squid**** today. What a surprise.
The RCF have shorts tied to them as leverage. If some of them gets paid off , the shorts can then be closed right? It will not hurt to see the stock be priced more in-line with revenue.