Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
No worries Funinvester :)
We are also currently at 91% of 2019 for the ‘summer box office season’ which runs from the first Friday in May to Labour Day weekend at beginning of September. Obviously this will fall a bit next month from lack of major releases in August but it does point to the strength of recovery that will continue in the last quarter, and into 2023 which has a full slate of movie releases.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/season/to-date/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses
Yes looking good, so by Tuesday it will be over $800m. With 2 weekends left, July will easily end up past $1bn, probably just over/ under $1.1bn by the end.
H2 2022 has the 2 biggest films of the year in Black Panther 2 and Avatar.
2023 is jammed packed with blockbusters. H1 includes Aquaman 2, Antman 3, John Wick 4, Guardians 3, The Little Mermaid, Fast X, Spider-Man Across the Spiderverse, Transformers, The Flash and Indiana Jones 5.
Cruis maybe Salems Lot will get moved as there is no marketing thus far - also another horror film Barbarian (which has a rather good buzzy trailer) has just moved to the same date as Salem having previously been slated for late August.
Sorry just to go back to a few posts earlier what with me being a box office nerd now since investing here haha, I think July will get to around just below $1.1bn. As has been mentioned we still have 3 weekends and each has a good wide release with Where the Crawfads Sing, Nope and then D.C. Superpets. We are at 540m so if the remaining weekends gets 125, 125, then 100 that’s 890 then 3 lots of week days at around 190 total equates to 1080. So feel confident we will surpass $1bn this month.
I also agree August is weak but I think we will still be ahead of last year’s $417m what with Bullet Train and the late July holdovers - these also a few other releases such as the comedy Easter Sunday (apparently tracking for between $48m and $70m total), Idris Elba’s action film Beast which could do ok mid August, and a horror film in late August. I also read somewhere that E.T and (Jaws in Sep I think) are getting an Imax release but not sure how wide they will be. Be really cool to get to see both of these classics on the big screen though!
Yep, just had our third biggest weekend of the year and next week could be the best so far!
Saw Elvis at a busy 9pm screening last night, thought the movie was brilliant, looking forward to Thor next.
$1bn+ is almost certainly happening for July with the strong performance of Minions, and likely Thor. There are more than just these 2 wide releases though with Where the Crawdads Sing, Paws of Fury, Nope, and DC League of Super-pets. As a rough guess here's how we can get to over $1bn: Minions 300m, Thor 300m, Maverick 100m, JWD 60m, Elvis 60m, TBP 30m, Lightyear 20m, Crawdads 40m, Nope 75m, DC Superpets 40m, PoF 20m.
I think $920m+ is a definite, beating Dec 2021. I agree this month's looking like it wont get to a billion now after Lightyear's relative under-performance (unless Elvis and Blackphone over-perform) but should still finish close at $950m+
https://www.indiewire.com/2022/06/jurassic-world-lightyear-top-gun-maverick-june-box-office-1-billion-1234729982/
Like many, I thoroughly enjoyed Maverick at Cine in iMax at the weekend! And with Top Gun Maverick's massive overperformance so far, $1bn at the US box office for June is looking very good, even if Jurassic World 3 slightly underperforms. I'm not sure that it will, even though the early critics reviews aren't too positive, as the other ones got mixed reviews also. What with the original cast and a chance to see dinosaurs on the big screen again, I'll be seeing it either way!
Not sure if anyone has posted this, but with recent discussion of Netflix possibly screening some movies in cinemas, here some good news on Apple signing production deal to give upcoming Formula 1 movie with Brad Pitt an exclusive 30-60 day theatrical release before moving to AppleTV+. Apple are also apprently teaming with Paramount for December's Scorcese film Killers of the Flower Moon (with Leonardo Di Caprio) to give that a cinema release also.
https://www.cultofmac.com/779664/apple-strikes-unusual-deal-for-formula-one-racing-film-starring-brad-pitt/
latpulldown, Yeah i see what your saying about the comparables and profitability for cine. Rightly or wrongly, box office analysts and media sites compare the figures this way, but it shows the box office is getting stronger. I think Top Gun is a turning point and brings confidence for movies that aren't just the superhereo ones.
Beta, Yep $800mn+ in June is a definite, and H1 22 will likely finish clear above H2 2021.
Excellent day so far!
Yes really fantastic performance from Top Gun. Obviously just waiting on the final weekend numbers but May should end around $770m+ at the US box office which is about 72% of 2019.
Could June be the first month since the pandemic to top $1bn at the US box office?
Just some rough estimates but with maybe another $250m from Top Gun, $400m from Jurassic World, $180m from Lightyear, $70m from Black Phone and Elvis, $30m more from Doctor Strange, $20m Downton Abbey, and possibly $50m from existing holdovers by (Bob’s Burgers, The Bad Guys, Sonic, EEAAO) and other new smaller releases it seems possible.
Just my guesstimates but will be an interesting month to watch after this weekend!
Yes great finish, and with a potential $200 million+ Memorial Day weekend in the US - estimated 17-35% higher than 2019 - things looking more positive.
https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-top-gun-maverick-targets-tom-cruises-first-100m-opener-and-potential-memorial-day-records/
Just in terms of US box office alone the box office for Q1 and 2 2022 will likely be the same as Q3 and 4 2021 at around $3.4 billion if not slightly less (not taking into account the other increased revenues which may well be higher as you suggest). At these levels and considering the lesser slate over August and September, the year will probably finish at around $6.8 billion - this is around 60% of 2019. Hopefully more films are added (e.g. from Netflix) and attendances continue to increase, but it wont likely be much more than that ($7.8 billion, for example, is 70% of 2019 which would be excellent progress but very unlikely considering the relative lack of depth in film releases).
Looking like a very good weekend at uk box office with the 3 new releases Morbius, Sonic 2 and The Bad Guys taking an estimated £10.5m. Good hold for the Batman too (-29%) with estimated £1.2m. The same weekend in April 2019 had total of £14m.
https://deadline.com/2022/04/morbius-sonic-the-hedgehog-2-batman-rrr-global-international-box-office-1234993236/
Last week I posted about the US box office total for March and it came in slightly higher at an estimated $594m as the 3rd best month of the last 2 years behind only Dec’s $921m and Oct’s $623m.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/march/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses
(Boxofficemojo figures for March are not yet updated and are missing some movies full totals).
Right, so families are just going to sit at home and never go out anymore watching Netflix and playing videos games.
UK box office for Sing 2 $43m and counting - Sing 1 $36m. Give families movies they want to see and they will still go. Upcoming this year we have Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Jurassic World 3, Lightyear, Minions 2, Thor 4 and Doctor Strange Multiverse of Madness to name a few.
The US box office for March I think will be about 60% of 2019. However the month will finish as the 4th or even 3rd best month so far during the pandemic behind Dec 21 (920m) and Oct 21 (622m) and maybe July 21 (582m). Not bad going seeing as this month there were only 2 major wide releases with Batman and Lost City. Dec of course had Spider-Man, as well as Sing 2, West Side Story, Matrix, The Kings Man (though those last 3 underperformed). October had a lot more releases in 3000 theatres or above with Venom, Bond, Halloween Kills, Dune, The Adams Family 2, as well as the underperforming Many Saints of Newerk, Ron’s Gone Wrong and The Last Duel. We are on the right track, the problem this year so far is a lack of product with some movies pushed back from the first quarter e.g Morbius or moved to streaming as with Pixar’s Turning Red which would have really helped with this month. Going forward from here the slate is a lot more positive.
Exactly, not a stupid comment at all. As has been mentioned many times before on here, people view going to the cinema vs paying for a streaming service as different kinds of expense i.e. having a monthly commitment of a subscription fee is different from spending money at the cinema as part of a night out / experience with others.
It is positive for CINE as i think it points to a realization that many of the big media companies have had is that they can't rely on a business model where they only have a streaming service and no traditional theatrical releases. The truth is there is an uncertainty for what comes next for the streaming model as it reaches saturation point, as highlighted by the recent slow down for new Netflix subscribers. The traditional media companies that have launched there own services to compete with Netflix are also now in an overcrowded market place, and they are having to spend huge sums on content and charge lower fees to compete and are running at a loss - this is spooking their investors - look at Viacom (Paramount) their stock actually went down despite or because of their latest announcement about commitment to Paramount+ spending. People aren't going to sign up to Netflix, Amazon, Disney, Apple, HBO, HBO, Pea****, Paramount as well as the rest every month, on top of a pay TV / satellite superscription. I think this is where the streamers will actually compete with more (many are gaining more sports rights for example) rather than replacing the experience of the cinema.
Looking good for this weekend with estimated $9.3million opening in uk - 3rd biggest opening during pandemic. 1st film opened with $7 million in 2016.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2022/01/30/box-office-scream-tops-100-million-as-sing-2-nears-270-million-worldwide/?sh=288c32a04602