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Good post Bouncy and totally agree. The onshore is a very decent starter course in itself, but offshore remains the main course. BOTH should be served up very nicely in 2024, in terms of generating value. And all whilst the transitional power side of the business continues to progress very nicely as well. 2024/2025 shaping up very nicely. I agree with you that success at Loukos will get Char to 18p, especially if by then, they have started to put out some confirmatory news re drilling at Anchois in 2024. That should sustain any rise generated by Loukos.
Buy at these lows and then hold for 2024/2025. You will definitely make money, it's a question of how much. I've mistimed my entry at 9.3p (as matter of technical perfection), but not all that fussed. Happy to add more in the 8s.
The only thing that worries me is talk of PRD having the Rig that Char was planning on using at Loukos? All imo and GLA
Henry,
I don't think Chariot would have applied (and received) EIA and permit approval to drill and produce from up to 20 onshore wells within the next 5 years if they weren't planning to expand Loukos onshore gas production further.
If Gaufrette and Dartois are successful and they start producing circa US$25m per well per year, then I think they'll just keep drilling. At $3m per well for $20-25m per year in revenue, it's a no-brainer for Chariot to keep expanding onshore and probably why Auctus has taken such a positive view on the stock.
BDC
Good post.
My negative slant is yet again a 50p target and concern that on shore not sufficient size to have significant impact on the development of char as a producer / spread of risk, as opposed to the anticipation of Anchois. I question that they will produce on shore
The offshore program could be perceived as resulting similar to promises that do not materialise as anticipated and suggested by the BoD similar to Anchois.
What is the credibility 50p target. Will they be suggesting the same in 2030.
Chariot have shot themselves in the foot. The broker targets are meaningless.
It's always good to get different perspectives, but let's try and agree to disagree in good faith, both on the positive side as well as the negative.
According to Auctus, each of the two wells being drilled (next month?) could be brought on stream this year (2024) and could produce 5 mmcf/d each in 2025.
From Auctus dated Jan 29, 2024.
The first prospect to be drilled will be Gaufrette (in line with previous indications). A success could unlock 26 bcf of Best Estimate recoverable prospective (gross) resources with an unrisked NAV of £0.06 per share, representing 75% of the current share price.
The most likely second prospect to be drilled will be Dartois. A success could derisk 20 bcf of Best Estimate recoverable prospective (gross) resources with an unrisked NAV of £0.05 per share, representing 75% of the current share price.
A successful discovery could be brought on stream by YE24. We currently forecast that Gaufrette or Dartois could produce ~5 mmcf/d in 2025, generating US$24 mm of after tax operating cashflow per year with overall development capex of US$28 mm (including exploration drilling). We re-iterate our target price of £0.50 per share.
“everything is riding on the back of the next offshore drill now”.
Not true. If onshore is a success (and with 65%-85% CoS, there is a high chance that it will be), then Chariot head on to offshore drilling later in the year in a much stronger position.
It's my guess that if March's onshore drilling campaign is a success, we approach offshore drilling later in H2 2024 at around the 18p mark. Just my view.
Yes, there is risk. There is always risk when it comes to O&G drilling. Chariot's onshore drilling, even at a whopping 65%-85% CoS could still disappoint. However unlikely that is, it could happen.
However, what's also just as likely to happen is that one or both of the wells finds way more gas than anticipated.
To me, Chariots onshore drilling is 2/3 odds on. Which are very good odds.
Scenario 1. As expected. 5 mmcf/d per well.
Scenario 2. Unexpected downside. Duster/non-commercial.
Scenario 3. Massive unexpected upside (Dartois?).
* you’re
@whimax maybe it’s best you read the Auctus note dated Jan 29, 2024. You might be disappointed.
Hi Whimax,
The plo poster has no interest in reasonable discussion and even less intention to discuss technicals or potential propectivity..
Mr plo, billboard, et al.. just here to mash and slash any decent discussion.
Mr Plo, I assume you’re being deliberately obtuse here, to fit your argument.
The Auctus broker note, is not being “ultra bullish”. They are basing their 5-10mmcf per year on EXISTING discoveries for the 2 wells already drilled. Chariot will drill another 2 wells within the next few weeks which have a CoS of 65-85% (as close to nailed on as it gets) so an assumption of another 5mmcf from each of those is surely not over egging things? They also have permits for a further 16-18 on shore wells after the ones next month.
25mmcf and $48m net to Chariot from Loukos by 2025 I would say is ultra conservative imo.
Who cares ? Absolutely no one ..
HA ha HA ha who am I? Can be sure ur WRONG.
As emperor says, DEW IT.
The purpose of this message board is to discuss peoples thoughts on Chariot. The occasional amusing posts and slight deviations I believe are acceptable, but personal insults aimed at posters because of differences of opinion are both childish and unnecessary.
As I said, just sad and pathetic…a grown adult which I assume you are , is now in the double digit avatar reincarnation on here to gain some recognition , what a sad little life it must be for you.
Well I apologize for my slightly snide remarks - they weren’t necessary. I took you for a poster who enjoyed a bit of banter judging by your first few posts, but it’s difficult to gage that online so, again, apologies for upsetting you.
Criticising me for posting an opposing/counter balancing view of what the future may hold though is frankly silly. That’s literally the very purpose for these forums. You call them ‘seeds of doubt’ - well to point out the obvious, Chariot is an AIM-listed penny share in the offshore gas exploration business with no proven track record. Oh and they’re down 50% in the last year. But I guess any ‘seeds of doubt’ should be kept quiet lest any potential new investors were to read these messages? I think most here if they’re being honest would wish that they sought and listened to opposing views over the past couple of years, as opposed to seeking confirmation bias in an echo chamber of positivity. I know I do.
But that’s in the past now. (Almost) everything is riding on the back of the next offshore drill now. FWIW I still think the risk v reward makes this an attractive gamble at this price.
Have a good evening.
There was never going to a be a discussion plop.
You think your Uber smart be stating ur a proactive chariot shareholder then sowing little poisonous seeds of doubt and making little “ like me im cool “ statements more frequently , however just like all your last incarnations here , you can be seen through rather easily.
Pathetic just pathetic .
Ah I see what you’ve done there. You’re saying maybe one day in several years time onshore could achieve 25mmcf if all drills are successful and they turn all wells into producers. Auctus are saying maybe Loukos could yield 5-10mmcf in 2025.
It’s ok. We don’t need a discussion now. As painless and enjoyable as that would have been.
Mr Plop,
Can you link the auctus advisor assumption that Loukos onshore will only ever produce 5-10mmcf flow rates from a combined onshore well count as you proclaim, if you can do that I will discuss openly, if you can’t then jog on Down a drain pipe or trouser leg.. TTFN.
I think the below is very relevant here.
"One of the big challenges that come with value investing is that you have to be patient – sometimes very patient. See, even if a stock is trading at a super cheap valuation, that doesn’t automatically make it a winner. You need other investors to invest too, and push the share price higher. And that’s been a key sticking point for UK stocks: net fund flows have been negative in the past couple of years, marked by a steady outflow, in particular, from active fund managers."
@whimax
@theobold
You’re both championing the potential of the onshore campaign and stating net revenues to chariot of $48-60m per year. That assumes 25mmcf/day extraction rate. But even our ultra bullish Auctus broker says only 5-10mmcf/ day in 2025. Why are you expecting such a higher rate?
Ian. Yes as I said the game changer will be on success only but without too much gambling pre drill.
Not sure anyone can argue on latest price and volume?
Correction: low 8's
Whimax for clarification I was referring to next week or so and to trade my last buy @ 0929 to try and cushion any disappointment.
It's already ridiculous that we are at low 9's.
GP14 - these Gas and oil Companies go up and down like a yoyo. I look at the Share risers and fallers on here every day. Often 70-100% winner is a gas/oil Company. It's definitely gambling - good news/bad news where traders earn their bread. A good result on the on-shore drill with positive news from Anchois could double bag us easy. That could be a few months off. Then Electricity is in short supply in South Africa where we may make a few bob. I've got Norcros at £1.90 with pe at 5. and divis 5% - ridiculous, s/be £4 a share. They are in Sth Africa and will benefit from growth there helped by cheaper power.
Gooner, with the greatest of respect, you’re being ridiculous if you’re serious about “derisking” at 10.50p.
IMHO.
Yo Ian Fear less!
20p is ultra ambitious imo pre drill The appetite Isn't there.
I hope i am wrong but aim/char has gutted a few too many to even take a 2nd look. Yep the risk v reward is massive but imo it really is now on success only.
At best I am thinking 11-12p pre drill then hope for the best.
Hi Gooner - I'm not de-risking till we get to 20p+
When this reaches a quid in 2/3 years I'll be glad I kept most of it.