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Having spent a week of 6 on Wall St, the phrase "bubble machine" is apt.
May 12, 2022, just over fourteen years after the collapse of Bear Stearns, the New York Times announced another crash. In a story entitled, “Cryptocurrencies Melt Down in a ‘Perfect Storm’ of Fear and Panic,” the lede read:
A steep sell-off that gained momentum this week starkly illustrated the risks of the experimental and unregulated digital currencies.
The story told of a mass investor flight from cryptocurrency markets, which has since caused an astonishing $700 billion in losses. There were several key triggering events, including the collapse of a “stablecoin” product called TerraUSD. A stablecoin is a type of digital currency that’s usually pegged to the value of a “stable” reserve asset like a dollar. They are often used to enter and exit trades for other cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin.
In theory, stablecoins work, if they’re backed by real assets and by guarantees that hog-tie the customer to their money in adverse conditions. Part of the idea behind a stablecoin is to be the calmer end of the volatile crypto experience. As Bloomberg put it, stablecoins can be a “safe haven” for investors, who can keep their holdings “protected from wild swings in the crypto market” without need to “convert their holdings into traditional money.” But the implosion of TerraUSD put a big early dent in the “safe haven” description.
That wasn’t the only factor. Just days after TerraUSD lost its “peg” and started its freefall in early May, financial observers found an eyebrow-raising passage in the already-disappointing quarterly 10-K report of a crypto market leader, Coinbase. In addition to reporting a $430 million loss and a 19% drop in users, the company stated:
In the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors.
Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency trading platform in the United States. When a customer stores cryptocurrency in a Coinbase wallet, those funds in theory can only be accessed with a cryptography-protected key, making it, again in theory, the unique property of the customer.
and so on, and so forth
nothing will stop the MIGHTY BUBBLE MACHINE...
“It’s 2008 on crack.”...
THE GNOME
It's not rocket science- those with the highest and fastest potential gains, have the highest chance of fastest losses and potential losses- every reaction can have equal and opposite reaction- which is why for some like me it's the tiniest part of my investment portfolio. There will always be doom mongers- take house prices in the U.K.- a way less risky asset. If I'd listened to all the dommsayers since the late 80,s id have missed out on a packet- even if there is a crash there and they drop by half- would still be in a ridiculous profit- plus I own the house mortgage free and would have to pay about £3k per month to rent it! I watched films like the big short - sure dommsayers can be right sometimes, but so rare and picking a crash time is so unlikely- generally people who have been investing in a balanced way over the centuries are far better off than the doomsayers... if there was no crypto there would be something else with massive high risk and gain, and I will always invest a tiny part in whatever it is as part of my portfolio ...
Talking of "Spoofing" this is a fantastic TV adaption of the book highlights that there has always been and always be those that "Spoof " investors!
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0300879/?ref_=ttpl_pl_tt
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Way-We-Live-Now-DVD/product-reviews/B000HA46QC?reviewerType=all_reviews
At the center of the story is Augustus Melmotte, a European-born city financier, whose origins are as mysterious as his business dealings. Trollope describes him as 'something in the city', but the "something" part is not always clear. Within weeks of arriving in London, he announces a new company and promises instant fortune to those who join him in this scheme. Melmotte is surrounded by a circle of decadent aristos, scheming widows and nouveau riche businessmen, all trying to get a piece of the financial pie.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/feb/17/110-best-novels-way-we-live-now-trollope
SJ,
No not rocket science at all. The overshoots and undershoots are part of a traders day, week or month.
The sad thing at the moment is that the under and overshoots are being created by those (central @bankers) that are paid handsomely to engineer things such that these phenomena do not occur (or are minimised)! These are then seized upon and exagerated by the $/word journalists and self described Quants and Savvies, and the swings and round abouts then impact the VIX, which the algorithms feed off, and the storm brews and swings get wilder.
Just recognise the pattern and plan your day, week, month eh?
God gold, it will haveits day again ... some things are hard to hold down for long
Gold acts more like a currency than a commodity, BUT EITHER WILL DO?. It generally has a negative correlation with the US dollar. When the US dollar is strong, the price of gold decreases but when the US dollar is weak, gold strengthens. The gold price is currently trading at US$1,286.40 per ounce.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1335/dollar-vs-gold-comparison-last-ten-years
After all these years, gold is still very much apart of our everyday lives. We may wear it, invest in it or prospect for it. There are no substitutes. Gold is gold.
best
the gnome
So it is interesting to look at the commentary on gold and the prediction of its price, over the last 25 years, and the correlations or not.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4343316-golds-correlations
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1995822621001497
I guess some people make their money writing rubbish, others lose theirs by reading rubbish, and so on and so forth
This is one of the writings I have been watching for a decade or more...United States graduates roughly 70,000 undergraduate engineers annually, whereas China graduates 600,000 and India 350,000.
like to make a prediction
the gnome
Thanks as ever Gnome, Someone else pointed out on this board a couple of weeks ago why the predictions on gold are so often uncorrelated, especially in a bear market, they said the likes of Andrew MaGuire etc have a vested interest in talking the metal they are selling up as they seek to sell more and draw more customers in, as you say some people make their money writing rubbish and others lose theirs by reading it. Thos pundits like Gary Wagner who advise on going both long and short with futures rather than selling the metal tend to do better unsurprisingly as without the interest in selling it, but none of them have the most brilliant record at predicting it. All one can say with the greatest probability is it will go down further before it goes up, where the bottom is and when no one knows even if they say they do and one can take predictions especially from those with a vested interest with less than a pinch of salt!
Sotolo, anyone running any business has a vested interest in "Talking it up!' as you put it, Andrew Pardey, Josef, Youssef & Sami El Reghy they all talked up the Sukari mine unrealistic guidance for over 10 years knowing full well that a such output was unrealistic and unsustainable, but due to the the methods of mining employed to pump up the output in the short term the crack appeared, and so here we are today with the share price dragging it's arse along the bottom of the bargain bucket, but then they had a vested interest in keeping their pyramid scheme going for just a bit longer1
Even you Sotolo were quoting that the share price would soon be £3,, you were wrong, but some believed you, you didn't mean to let them down, its the way of things, so there you go, but even so you had a vested interest at the time!
Boris told the UK public that post Brexit would be a golden but age, but then he had a vested interest, he wanted to be the king and shag, yet now post Brexit the UK economy is also on it's arse and Boris is out on his arse!
Everyone has vested interests, just like all of us, we all want the Centamin share price to rise and so we have a vested interest!
Everyone in every walk of life has vested interests!
Hi Mr gnome,
Getting control of those leavers in the FED , that's what's needed to push up the gold price!
Ah Yes, Mr T-----the prediction of £3 a share! Time flies. I cannot remember. Was it 2 years a ago or 3?
I remember about 5 years ago the share price was in the high 170s and looking good .
Maybe my memory is distorted but over the years, it seems like every time Centamin gets tipped in a newspaper , there is a short rise followed by a bl--dy great fall.
Im hoping that the spadework that Martin Horgan appears to have been putting in, comes good and we will see a rise and a bigger dividend before we all get too old.
Are you still keeping the faith Mr T?
Hi Tibbs. How are you keeping these days. Moved to Cornwall yet? Very very disappointed with Centamin. Still hanging in there after all these years. Should have took out when around £2 Now in my latter 70’s and now hoping for a miracle me thinks. Keep safe and well
Hi Wally,
Great to hear fro you,hope that you are well and still walking the dogs!
Hindsight , what a great thing, I wonder how that old Cornish miner who predicted £5.00 feels now, although to be fair had the mine be run as it should have been then who knows!
To be fair that old Cornish was'nt to know that Pardey and Co were running a "Pyramid Scheme' by high grading and not bothering to clear away waste ot pump up output for the short term!
No doubt about it now, after the past three years we certainly know just how much we were ticked up by the El Raghy team and Pardey!
Yes I should have got out at just over £2, but I was seduced by all the talk of £3 and then after the "Crack" I should have got out a £1.70 , but then I foolishly assumed that the state of Sukari was'nt as bad as it was, that Martin Horgan would make a statement, a few months would go by and all would be well again!, but it wasn't to be because Martin quite rightly was honest about the near ruination of Sukari by the previous bunch of carpet baggers and he explained the time factor, the amount of money and effort needed to turn Sukari nto a properly functioning gold mine!
A miracle would be a dream, but its hardly likely, so its a case of yet more waiting, but at least we now have a CEO who knows what what needs to be done, and is doing it, rather than glossing over the truth whilst feeding the share holders more copious amounts of baloney!
Yes moving to Cornwell seemed like a great idea until post Brexit, then the pandemic with all the forced disclosure's that the NHS and social care and just about everything else are truly buggered beyond repair, also after losing so much of our European freedoms the UK now seems rather like like an open prison where we can get a pass out for so long, but then have to return to serve our ongoing sentence to live in purgatory!
We all know by rights where the POG should be, but we also know the supposedly regulated markets are manipulated and those manipulators care not a jot that what they do is so blatantly obvious!, so the POG will be wherever the FED & bank cartel it want it to be!
Inflation is here to stay for decades and the FED and other central banks wont be able to control it with interest rates because the system is based on consumerism, and if people stop buying. or taking out credit then a recession is sure to follow, so it seems market manipulation and political lies are now the norm and unlikely to end, irrelevant of whomever becomes the UK PM!
So say we take our money out of Centamin invest in another company, which to trust, that's the question, none of them, they all lie, the only thing that's certain is whichever the comapny the directors will always fill their boots and the brokers will always encourage people to buy and sell!
So if Martin Horgan succeeds that will be brilliant, but if he fails then so what, that's just how it goes!
Keep well though Wally, keep enjoying this views, and the pasties, and the be
Wally,
Cont-
and the beer!
Tibbs
Quite so Paul, your memory is certainly not distorted,I also remember all too well!
keeping the faith, quite a conundrum, I have come to the conclusion that having faith usually results in disappointment far more often than delight, so lets hope that Martin Horgan will deliver on his promises!
But yes I am staying in Centamin because I really don't have any more faith in anything else!
Lets hope at last, before too much longer we will be getting out those golden flip flops!
Hope you are watering that garden!
Keep well Paul!
Tibbs
I suppose Mr T that we cross our fingers and hope for some good news soon. Is the update next week?
The "heap" should be getting smaller now -------and I think Cowichan mentioned those lighter, alloy bodied trucks? With the solar and the seemingly good results from the drilling, surely we must be due the turnaround soon?!
I find it hard to believe that gold has been going down, what with the war in the Ukraine and inflation what it is?
Im not much of a gardener to be honest Mr T and the ground here is not great. However, I should have 10 blackcurrant bushes producing next year (or the year after?) and i've got a big bramley apple tree + a few smaller ones.
I picked the blackkcurrants off the 2 mature bushes the other day and they will be used for jam along with some plums.
The courgettes are doing ok and I've picked and frozen some turnip.
I've also done some peas (not many) and garlic for my Niece.
Slowy getting better Mr T but hopefully Centamin will get better quicker than my garden and gardening.
Some of the chives will be going down the garden for the bees as they seem to like the flowers.
Im always doing Rosemary cuttings for people and have got thyme and oregano on the go for them as well.
Golden flip flops Mr T? I want a pair of gold toe capped boots :-)