London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
There's one thing for sure which is glaringly obvious: - The waste pile might be slow in disappearing but the'Cash pile' has rapidly disappeared. - It was a treasury contingency that afforded some degree of protection. Now it's disappearing fast and leaving Centamin exposed. - Sotolo makes a good point I feel. - The CC is gonna be an interesting experience.
That is why I think it is a 4 year contract so not quite so dramatic. To me however it is like a Water torture a drip that just goes on and on.
Hopefully we will start to see some justification with improved production because of the ability to access multiple benches and build a continuity of ounces.
Given that Capital are now a couple of years into the contract they will have moved considerable tonnage so would be interesting to understand how much ore has already been exposed.
You don't secure $150m with a crap business plan
Maybe , but then had Sukari had a properly qualified mining manager who would have implemented a proper waste clearance program since 2015 then there wouldn't have been the need to spend $590 million now to possibly enable ongoing yearly production of 450, 000 - 500,000, which is considerably less than Centamin's Youssef EL Raghy and Andrew Pardy were boasting about about in the media in 2018 three weeks prior to yet another unexpected encounter of low grades which they again glossed over by high grading and ignoring the wastes piling up!
That said any extra profit made by high grading and some has now been more than lost and we are paying to put things right!extra profit has now been lost
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/30602/Sukari-to-produce-600-000-ounces-of-gold-in-2018
Not to mention the many millions of dollars spent for no return (albeit a nice little earner for the drilling contractor ) for no return!
So I do hope the lender carried out proper due diligence !
CEO Martin Horgan told Mining Journal that Sukari “couldn't deliver a bloody pizza” over the past few years !
Hi Tony,
So both parties must have a pretty accurate idea of what's been spent so far and the time to finish the job, where is the information?
I agree with what you are saying about the waste there Mr T. If they had been clearing it as they were going along, it would not have become a problem-----AND it probably would have been cheaper than doing it in one massive effort.
We would probably not have gotten the same OZ's of gold out of the ground, or the decent dividends, but things would have been going along a lot smoother and the share price would be higher than it is now. SO--swings and roundabouts but generally we have lost more by the drop in the (artificially high) share price (or even a true one) than we gained in dividends.
The high share price and dividends suited the people who got out in time and had the knowledge to do so.
Lets hope that things start to get better for us soon. I think a bit of cheer would do us all good.
Perhaps I am missing something. To go into Egypt and set yourself up as a Mining Services Contractor, you would need to have a "contract in hand". To have a contract in hand in a competitive bid process is interesting when one has no experience in the country, but does have an inkling that there are lots of speed humps...
This could be problematical if you do not know the "Egyptian system", and lets just pick a case in point...or 2...
1. employing local people (for every expat I think you have to employ 9 local people - who have next to no skills in mining services when there has not been a mining industry in Egypt?). Just how is this factored into the work flow and management structure, the bid price, the project risk analysis etc...
2. getting equipment into and out of the countries. Knowing it is a problem is not solving the problem. How do you factor this into your bid price as it represents a potential significant risk
and so on and so forth. Working in Egypt, is a very Egyptian affair, and the Mining Industry really does not exist, apart from Centamin.
So to get a new Mining Services contractor into the country, one would have to work with the contractor, and try and tie up as much alignment as possible, knowing the alignment will not be perfect.
The risk must be dealt with somehow.
What have I missed...I have tried to be brief
regards
The Gnome
Spot on Goldgnome.
In 3 months CEY is up 30 pence.
Price is due to sentiment, its clear not many listen to this BB.
See this moving much higher through the levels
Return to 200p+ is on the cards this year imo
Plus a veey healthy dividend from the present entry.
Yep, the only thing that moves the SP is economic data primarily from USA (there's a fair bit out this week so check your calendars). This impacts stocks in general and commodities eg. The other is RNS and we all know the date of the next scheduled one here. The rest of the rumours, twitter stuff, detail etc is all pure speculation and does zero to the SP.
goldgnome I thoroughly agree although item 2 can be overcome by employing the local dealer responsible for the equipment supply clearing customs, delivery to site and assembled ready to go.
New companies entering any new developing market is very difficult and Capital would have gone through this in their early days. As we both agree this is where they had a considerable advantage over others wishing to compete.
As a Cat dealer I was often confronted with a tender for equipment that included many items that we normally wouldn't get involved with and advised if bidding it is all or nothing.
If Cowichan has proof of wrong doing then I would suggest he writes personally to Horgan naming names but I don't see what advantage would be gained by Centamin's new team offering a sweetheart deal to Capital.
Unless there was a need to make an upfront deposit that has been misconstrued.
Hi Dasut & Mr Gnome,
Obviously its difficult to judge without knowing all the details or even the company criteria of how the decision to award Capital the contract was reached, although when considering the factors we do know, not least the urgency of the situation then it would seem to make sense to go with a known contractor who has the equipment available a working knowledge of Sukari with whom the company has an established a good working relationship.
Indeed in local and central government when considering contractors it isn't always necessary to go out to tender if for instance speed is a priority and it can be shown that the contractor has a proven track record (i.e. already a known company/contractor on the "Preferred List").
Unfortunately during the "Pandemic" the government of the day used 'Urgency" as an excuse not to go to tender, or even use companies on the preferred list and in the majority of instance used newly setup up outfits with no track record who charged exorbitant prices for unfit for purpose products and services!
So It is always prudent to be able to justify the contract award which it seems is where Centamin is failing at present.