Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
1823 then 1835.
I can see CeY closing 1pound this week.
Strange share is this one regarding low S.P. as over £2.00 fairly recently and now look at the price given the price of gold. Not sure why this isn`t moving but have bought back in again as it is worth more than £1.00 on current values. Anybody know why this is at such a low price ?
ROCKETVI,
Well production is down ASIC is up, issues with movement in the forth wall halting mining in a high grade area until its safe. Then an increase in stock lending of nearly 1% and Blackrock selling 3%. Yes we are undervalued but look at HOC FRES and POLY also undervalued for different reasons. Sentiment still not with Gold due to crypto hype, rate hike expectations and yield curve, but I don't see any Central Banks buying Bitcoin.
Thanks Auson. Looks like it will need gold prices to be kept at this level or above to maintain resonable profits then if production is down. Still a low price IMO given issues that will be resolved. Made profits in all others that you mentioned, more so in PAF which i believe is one of the best miners to be in at present. As they say, buy when out of favour and hold.
Hi Rocket,
How long have you got?
No seriously I think you may be a relatively new holder there are many changing factors over the years that have contributed to us being where we are.
Unfortunately share holders good nature and trust was thoroughly exploited by certain members of the previous management, although there comes a point (in this case a crack in the wall) exposes the true state of affairs and when the market is deceived it demands a severer retribution in the form of share price repression!
Please have a look back through some of the previous years annual reports and quarterly updates on the Centamin home page.
But on a brighter note I have great confidence in Martin Horgans new strategy and his team, so I remain very optimistic for the future!
Thanks Mrtibbles. Have been in & out a few times on this one but once out, dont bother keeping updated unless i see big price movements either way. History has been and gone and Egypt has had its fair share of bad news but seems to be fairly stable at present hence Western Companies investing there. A new Management can often work wonders if they have a good understanding of PM mining and also of the Country that they operate in. Hopefully they can get this Company running better and more efficiently but i invested mainly because i feel that gold is undervalued so will hold out for a big upside correction in 2022.
Just back from a great golf game, and it was warm (well for November)- and always nice to see a rise when you come back!
"US inflation expectations for the year ahead increased by 0.4 percentage point to a new record high of 5.7% in October of 2021"
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-expectations
If this doesn't do it, nothing will. It's a showdown. The moment of truth. We need to break $1830 *soon* and look as though we're going to break $1,900 by end of month.
I'm no chartist but I don't think Gold is now Bullish, although it does seem to have found a bottom and bounced 3 times. I think we need to see Gold comfortably above $1900 to confirm a break of the consolidation/ downtrend we have seen since the high above $2000 was put in many months ago.
This latest rally could be the start of a continued up trend but I think its too soon to say.
My understanding from historical studies is that there is no proven (positive or negative ) link between inflation and interest rates with the corresponding movements in the pricing of Gold
Does anyone know whether or not this is true ?
@Candid: "My understanding from historical studies is that there is no proven (positive or negative ) link between inflation and interest rates with the corresponding movements in the pricing of Gold"
From what I understand, that is correct. I believe though, that there is a reasonable correlation between the gold price and the **expectated** inflation level of inflation. Though I have not verified that for myself.
I agree. Gold is not yet looking all that bullish. I have a large CEY position (unerwater) and would not even consider adding to it until Gold breaks $1900. I'll gradually change my mind once it's beyond $1,930 for a week.
Cane toad you are right that gold does not move directly with inflation. However it does seem to move with the inverse of real interest rates. At the moment with nominal interest rates expected to barely rise, rises in inflation reduce real interest rates ever further which should be supportive for gold. https://www.longtermtrends.net/gold-vs-real-yields/
FURTHER TO MYMPOSTFROM THE FT THIS MORNING, GOLD MUST CATCH UP SOON, I AM WAITING: The surge in inflation is leaving the world’s leading economies with their lowest real interest rates in decades,… Real interest rates “will remain at historically low levels for the next several years”, said Elena Duggar, managing director at the rating agency Moody’s. In the US, where nominal interest rates are near zero, real rates stand at around -5.3 per cent. They are at -3 per cent in the UK and -4.6 per cent in Germany, according to Financial Times analysis.
Yes Auson but Cey Hoc etc don’t all move together always, especially now; I think Hoc was unfairly undervalued with the others as profits will not fall as much as Cey, and the market seems to have realised this with Hoc outperforming Cey, up 20% over the month but Cey has stayed flat, while gold has risen from 1750. Therefore they don’t just move in tandem to gold but also on what people think of future profits so how the actual companies are doing. Horgan remains to prove himself which is why we keenly await the final quarter and the annuals. Hopefully the market has punished Cey sufficiently leaving it flat as gold rises, that it will begin to rise as/if gold goes further. I moved a chunk to Hoc and now hold 50% more Hoc than Cey as I thought a better play currently having been over penalised. I still expect Hoc to rise faster if PM’s do despite their hefty silver hedge imho. Conclusion Cey not just affected by price of gold but costs rising faster than rivals and ounces down more imho. This needs to change too!
On another note for those who say it is just the PM price, and these miners of similar size mover more or les together, 20 months ago Hoc share price was 20% below Cey, now it is 66% higher, despite having had bad production higher costs and lousy politics. I follow the difference which is back out to Hoc 60p above Cey and should go back to the high of this difference ove 100p before Cey hopefully gets its act together and catches up as should be a great company if they could just get a handle of those exorbitant costs, partly by getting output back towards 500k oz imho
The earnings report last month was very good with expectations of increased production. Political situation has also calmed down with the government recognising foreign investment is essential for their economy.
Having read quite a bit over in the US on the recent change of sentiment towards gold it is accepted that strong figures in the job market will allow the Fed to raise interest rates.
Also demand for gold in China and particularly India (Diwali) is putting pressure on prices.
Fwiw, price here is held back by an institution selling shares into any rises in the PoG and it will only be a matter of time before CEY catches up with it’s peers. As always patience is the toughest investment to make.
Apologies earnings in relation to HOC
I disagree with the idea that 'GOLD MUST CATCH UP SOON'
It's hardly booming, is it.... Bitcoin is reaching new highs, because investor funds are flowing into it, while gold ETFs are suffering huge outflows. It's just supply-and-demand. I hope the situation changes, but this does not look bullish to me and if gold is not bullish, there is no chance of CEY rising significantly. If gold were to dip significantly, there could be a bloodbath for gold equities.
Last week's Diwali festival saw physical gold demand in India, the No.2 bullion consumer nation, jump sharply, with dealers charging a premium of up to $1.50 over official domestic prices – inclusive of the nation's 10.75% import and 3% sales levies – up from the previous week's premium of $0.50 per ounce.
"Retail demand during Dhanteras and Diwali was 25% more than the pre-pandemic level of 2019," said Amit Modak, chief executive officer at jeweller PN Gadgil and Sons.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do
Yes Cane gold is still range bound and gold could break out either way, as you say if down would be a bloodbath for gold mining shares, but the converse also applies. I certainly have no idea which way it will go and I am. It sure anyone has, tho historically as said lower real interest rate should pull it up, but history didn’t have bitcoin and qe together, rather it wa the opportunity cost of holding gold v bonds,
I occasionally wonder how annoyed some LTHs are with the fall in value on their investments. There was a time, after the west wall fiasco, which left the SP wallowing ~£1.33. It seemed an acceptable blip. Not so now with a prolonged stay in the 90s.
Observing daily values of £000s in paper losses must be frustrating. For myself getting back to >£1 can't come soon enough.
Yes. it is bl--dy annoying. But I try to look at it like this for now. If we make a profit and get a good dividend, then so long as you dont need the money now, its a case of being patient. (How long have we been patient???)
Then, if you you have been reinvesting dividends,and the price does eventually reach the heights we previously attained, we will be better off than if we had never slumped.
I hope that makes some sort of sense?
Regarding Inflation / Gold.
Bloomberg is saying that the recent rise in Bitcoin is due to the 'search for investments to hedge risks from inflation'...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-08/bitcoin-climbs-to-record-high-exceeding-october-peak
I'm not feeling incredibly bullish on gold yet. It seems to be having trouble even getting through the $1,830 resistance.
Interesting Canetoad and by crypto continues to fly (queue nay sayers... tulip, crash, ponzi, never going to gain traction...). Over 3 trillion market cap and climbing...
Remain hopeful for gold and CEY, couple of regular data points due this week from US (google and they're there and the timings).