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Hi Mr Gnome,
I'm not making any assumptions about who is telling the truth because most of the experts likely have their own reason's for promoting a particular narrative.
I posted the piece by Jeffery Christian just because it is a contrarian view to that of the majority at the moment and one which people will likely have their own opinions on.
Same Simply Wall St dated last Thursday:
The projected fair value for Centamin is UK£2.27 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Centamin is estimated to be 45% undervalued based on current share price of UK£1.26
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Currently debt free.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
And of course Centamin share price is no longer below a year ago. As others below have said better to listen to the knowledgable here than the pundits, especialy the generalists, who often know far less about Cey ; a bit like Superforecasting that showed a group of intelligent amateurs, ie us, is almost always better than pundits who move in a herd. The pundits certainly don't know which way gold is going, when it rises they almost all say up and vice versa, we shall only see if this is a top, or it carries on further, retrospectively
If the institutions were going to dump Centamin shares they would have done it a long time ago. The fluctuations have been far greater than they were last week.
Tibbs why do you need to check things out if you have had an answer to questions ? Who better to debate with than this forum of people who have been following Cey for a considerable time. Surely Cey haven't sworn you to secrecy when answering your questions.
What a load of tosh!
Journo standards have fallen off a cliff recently.
Simply Wall St dated 9 Dec 2023.
As I thought.Just supposition being dressed up as an actual event. Much dramatised.
Deception.
Institutional owners may take dramatic actions as Centamin plc's (LON:CEY) recent 5.0% drop adds to one-year losses
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-cey/centamin-shares/news/institutional-owners-may-take-dramatic-actions-as-centamin-p
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CEY/
What happened to the RNS that is normally published after we were informed a great number Corporate Investors had sold large volumes or was it all Bo****ks . ;-)
Thanks Mr T
You do make an amazing assumption that some of the mortals staggering around the place, with mouths wide open, speaking best guess stuff, would know what the truth is , even if they stumbled over it!
There remains a certain appeal of gold. It cant be created, and it cant be destroyed, which is the opposite of its unit of measure, the US$ LOL, which was made to be destroyed, and has continuously been so for decades...
goodluck punters, gold is not a bad thing
The Gold Gnome
I don't know anyone has any knowledge of CPM Group but Jeffery Christian, opinion's in this presentation seems to be pushing a very different narrative to many of the other precious metals market experts
Might be interesting to invite Jeffery on some time for an exchange of opinions with one of other experts in the Youtube Live from the vault presentations?
In this presentation, CPM Group’s Jeffrey Christian discusses a range of topics surrounding precious metals, focusing on misinformation about U.S. Treasury Gold and providing a Market Update for Gold and Silver.
Jeffery also discusses gold held in foreign and international accounts at the New York Federal Reserve, who controls leased metal, and the myth of delayed metal delivery from the US Treasury to Germany.
https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2024-04-26/gold-and-silver-market-update-myths-and-misinformation
Major European stock exchanges traded with gains in the premarket on Monday as investors anticipated the release of the latest consumer inflation data from Spain and Germany. Moreover, the report on the euro area consumer confidence will also be in the spotlight.
The DAX gained 0.11% at 8:00 am CET. At the same time, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.35%, the CAC 40 added 0.07% and the FTSE 100 increased 0.64%.
The euro traded 0.31% above the dollar at 7:59 am CET, changing hands for 1.07256. Concurrently, the pound was up 0.33% against the greenback, selling for 1.25363.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AY
Happy Monday y’al
Gold currently $2330.15
Hi Dasut,
Thank you for your detailed reply , it is greatly appreciated!
I quite understand why you couldn't ask questions last time and I hop enjoy enjoy your next trip!
I have had a reply from fti, although I wont post any of it as yet on an open forum until I have had a few things checked out
Tibbs
Tibbs I have had a good experience getting answers to my questions. What specifically worries you the most? Maybe I or other members of this group can either answer or ask on your behalf. Not sure PR is the way to go for specific questions normally only any good with generic questions when it gets to the nitty gritty like all PR companies they need to ask someone on the ground and this not only takes time it can often then get lost due to work load and demands on peoples time.
I wasn't able to participate in the last 1st quarter presentation because I was on holiday but to be honest after the last call in at the year end presentation I wasn't expecting a good 1st quarter. In fact the only good thing that I took out of the presentation was that at long last they are laying down on leach pads very low grade ore that would normally be dumped on the waste dump. Why they haven't done this with the stockpile material I don't know but will be asking the question once I get time which won't be soon as I am off on my travels again. This could be an exercise/project worth talking to Capital about when the waste project finishes.
Low grade ore from the open pit is still viable take a look at the "Interactive Analyst Centre " numbers and you will see the comparisons in costs when compared with underground they both need each other otherwise the cost of processing would rise exponentially. Processing grades are crucial as is volume.
I see you are asking why the waste project costs have been capitalised or deferred and my reading is smoothing of the numbers and taking at a later date when they are in the areas where ore has been exposed. Someone on this board who has better experience of creative accounting may be able to explain.
Like others I am not expecting to see real progress until after the Waste Project has been completed and then the proof of decisions made by Horgan and his team will be in the results, albeit I know we will still have some blips on the way because that is the nature of investing in high risk markets and mining is very much one of those markets.
Whilst Endeavour warrants a 'hold' ?
Endeavour's mines have the threat of being expropriated in Burkina Faso.
Gold is at record highs, Sukari's waste moving contract costs are about to end - shouldn't this be the time free cash flow improves for Centamin?
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1046149/take-some-money-out-of-gold-miners-suggests-liberum-1046149.html
Mason Lees
Exploration Geologist - Camborne School of Mines
It was an excellent experience spending the last few weeks at the Centamin Sukari gold mine, Egypt.
Overall, a great deposit to see the effects of both brittle and ductile deformation on a large scale within a porphyry style deposit.
Looking forward to completing the project with the MRM team over the next few months.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mason-lees-246824165_it-was-an-excellent-experience-spending-the-activity-7189622185198596097-fpLD
underground pic on link
3bear take a look at Centamin web site "Interactive Analyst Centre" it will I hope give you the numbers that you are looking at starting with cost per tonne for open pit against undeground.
Crux Investor, Deeds, not words are needed now!
Whilst a healthy start and a confident presentation, I should emphasise that investors should remain cautious until Sentiment management demonstrates sustained operational stability over a longer period of time. Here's a more balanced take:
While the recent update provides grounds for optimism, investors would be prudent to maintain a healthy scepticism until Centamin shows it can deliver consistent operational performance over an extended timeframe. The company has faced struggles with meeting production targets and managing costs in the past. Though the new management team led by CEO Martin Horgan seems to have made progress in addressing these issues, one year of hitting guidance does not definitively prove they have resolved the underlying problems. There is still execution risk in consistently hitting forecasts.
Additionally, guidance was met but at the lower end of the projected output range in 2022, and required what management called "prudent" cost assumptions. Investors should watch for Sentiment to demonstrate it can beat guidance over a series of quarters, rather than just meet baseline expectations. There are also risks around Centamin's major growth projects like the Sukari underground expansion that could face unexpected challenges during implementation. Until these capital programs are executed successfully, they represent potential downside risks if behind schedule or over budget.
While the healthier balance sheet and strong free cash flows from the Sukari mine provide some stability, Centamin lacks the margin for error of some industry majors. To truly change perceptions, consistently meeting or exceeding operational targets in 2023 and beyond will be critical.
While the future looks brighter for Centamin, investors may want to take a "trust but verify" approach, looking for an extended track record of outperformance and flawless execution before viewing the operational turnaround as fully secured. There is still work ahead for management to translate potential into consistent value creation.
January 31, 2023
Matthew Gordon
https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/centamin-plc-q4-2022-investor-presentation-summary
652 views 8 Mar 2024
Centamin PLC’s (TSX:CEE) two highlights of 2023 were achieving all-in-sustaining costs of $1,250 an ounce, and delivering guidance for the third straight year, says CEO Martin Horgan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sss6zwnkuus
Hi 3bear
Also good to hear from Cooperman again, pity the ipad played up, you may be able t salvage what you composed though if you do then please post it.
Glad you now see what I am concerned about at 3bear, I do hope that my concerns about what seems to be slick accountancy tactics are due to some misconception or misunderstanding on my part rather than some intending misrepresentation of the true facts.
I'm certain that everyone myself included were hoping for a far more shall I say inspiring or encouraging Q1 2024 report which unfortunately certainly wasn't the case !
Interestingly at 1755 Fri 26th April I received a courteous and professional reply not from Mr M Stoner but from Centamin's PR representative Ben Brewerton of fti Consultancy in which Mr Bremerton has attempted to address my concerns, although I have yet to do some research on the reasoning and rationale contained in it before I will be able decide if I feel reassured or not about the the future prospects of Centamin.
Tibbs
Just wrote a long diatribe about Horgan but iPad played up and lost it , not writing it again but basically he is useless and insipid as a leader and promoter of the business . Thank god gold is so high otherwise the share would be tanking
Tibbs there weren't many lights to be dazzled by in Q1.
Q2 on the other hand, revenues ought to be off to the moon.
I do share your concern about AISC manipulation. Out of $190m earned in Q1 they spent $180m on AISC + investment/exploration leaving only $10m free cash flow.
We are going to see record revenue in Q2 but if the FCF is still rhubarb, then I'll be inclined to join you in the grousing gang.
Andy Schectman, President of Miles Franklin. The precious metals experts juxtapose the current physically-driven bull run with their long histories of financial education.
The military application of Silver there are 500 oz of silver in the tip of a Tomahawk cruise missile!
China owns the LBMA and the gold bullion will be stored in China!
BRICS is a gold backed commodities currency!
China owns $2.5 - $3 trillion of USA treasuries!
https://tinyurl.com/5dmrpety
Good luck Tony, will miss the banter from you.
As a final shot- the always falls in the first 2 weeks of April didn’t happen- so you’ll need to adjust your chart accordingly :-)
Thank you Tony for your past contributions to this forum and may I wish you health and prosperity for the future and hope that you will still drop in from time to time anyway!
Best
Tibbs
It's time that the trading cess pit notability the Comex was more tightly regulated to have some moral responsibility and be about more than a quick profit, at present the Comex trading brings about severe or erratic price fluctuation for the benefit of the trading desks, but at a great cost and detriment to the vast majority of the worlds inhabitants by helping to bring about the destruction of and pollution of our planet and inflict hardship and suffering on a huge number of the worlds communities!