Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Part 3
Figure 1: Income statement ($m)
December year-end 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E
Total sales 829 734 732 761
Sales growth (%) 27 (11) (0) 4
Gross margin (%) 46 32 28 26
Cost of sales (449) (499) (529) (562)
Gross profit 379 235 203 199
Operating expenses (55) (36) (35) (36)
Administrative expenses 0 0 0 0
Share based payments 0 0 0 0
Underlying EBITDA 439 329 312 329
Depreciation (124) (135) (163) (184)
Amortisation (not acquired) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EBIT (pre JVs) 307 194 149 144
EBIT (pre JVs) margin (%) 37 26 20 19
Revenue 0 0 0 0
PBT 0 0 0 0
Tax 0 0 0 0
JV post tax profit 0 0 0 0
JV contribution 0 0 0 0
Profit on disposal 0 0 0 0
Underlying EBIT 307 194 149 144
EBIT Margin (%) 37 26 20 19
Amortisation of acquired intangibles 0 0 0 0
Exceptional / extraordinary costs (1) 0 0 0
Reported EBIT 307 194 149 144
Non-operating exceptional costs 0 0 0 0
Interest income 2 3 1 1
Interest costs 7 0 0 0
Pension credit / (cost) 0 0 0 0
Net Interest 8 3 1 1
Underlying PBT 316 197 150 145
Reported PBT 316 197 150 145
Underlying tax rate (%) 0 0 0 0
Exceptional tax rate (%) 0 0 0 0
Reported tax rate (%) 0 0 0 0
Underlying tax (0) 0 0 0
Exceptional tax 0 0 0 0
Reported tax (0) 0 0 0
Underlying PAT 315 197 150 145
Discontinued operations (net) 0 0 0 0
Profit on disposal 0 0 0 0
Reported PAT 315 197 150 145
Share of profit attributable to minorities (159) (104) (83) (80)
Preference dividends 0 0 0 0
Minorities (159) (104) (83) (80)
Underlying net income 157 93 68 65
Reported net income 156 93 68 65
Weighted average number of shares (basic) (m) 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
Weighted average number of shares (diluted) (m) 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
Number of shares at period end (basic) (m) 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
Reported EPS (basic) ($) 0 0 0 0
Reported EPS (diluted) ($) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EPS (basic) ($) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EPS (basic) growth (%) 79 (41) (27) (4)
Underlying EPS (diluted) ($) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EPS (diluted) growth (%) 79 (41) (27) (4)
Pro-forma EPS (diluted) ($) 0 0 0 0
DPS (Ordinary) ($) 0 0 0 0
DPS (Total) ($) 0 0 0 0
Dividend growth (%) 20 (25) (65) 17
Dividend cover (x)
part 2
Recoveries outperformance offsets plant maintenance
H1 2021 production amounted to 204koz, essentially in-line with our 206koz expectation. This was despite a 10-day shutdown of one of Sukari’s two SAG mills being brought forward to Q2 2021 (from Q3 2021). We understand this to be due to recoveries being better than expected by ourselves and company:we had modelled 88.0% for H1 2021, versus the realised recovery of 88.8%
(with Q2 at 89.3%).
H1 unit costs at lower end of full-year guidance range
Total cash costs and AISC came in at US$883/oz and US$1,186/oz in Q2 2021, for H1 averages of US$807/oz and US$1,186/oz – i.e., at the lower end of Centamin’s full-year guidance is for US$800-900/oz cash cost and
US$1,150-1,250/oz, respectively. We had modelled US$868/oz and US$1,216/oz, respectively.
Capex guidance maintained, but more H2-weighted
Capex spend in H1 2021 amounted to US$78.3m, but full-year capex guidance remains US$225m – i.e. 65% in H2 (previously 55%), due to certain payments being rescheduled to Q3 2021.
Balance sheet remains strong
As at 30 June 2021, Centamin had US$312m of cash and liquid assets (March 2021: US$331m), after the final dividend of US$34.5m and Sukari profit share distribution in H1 2021 of US$45.7m, with no debt and no hedging. Detailed
H1 2021 financials are to be released on 5 August 2021. Phase 2 of Sukari Life of Asset (LOA) review by end 2021
An updated structural model was completed for Sukari in Q2 2021, which will be integrated into the full geological model in Q3 2021. An updated resource estimate will underpin Phase 2 of the LOA review, which Centamin continues to expect to complete by the end of 2021.
This report is prepared solely for the use of Broking Ideas of Liberum
Q2’21 production was 100koz at cash costs of US$883/oz and All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of US$1,290/oz (Q1’21: 104koz @ US$733/oz cash cost, US$1,091/oz AISC).
Centamin is therefore on-track to meet its full-year 2021 target of 400-430koz @ US$800-900/oz cash cost and US$1,150-1,250/oz AISC. We see this as an important.‘result’ in that Centamin has been investing heavily for operational reliability in order to restore market confidence
in the company’s ability to meet guidance.
Egyptian Bid Round exploration licence terms agreed
Earlier this month, terms were agreed over three gold exploration blocks
(incorporating 19 licences) covering 3,164km2) in Egypt’s Arabian Nubian
Shield (subject to final legal formalities, which Centamin expects to complete
in Q3 2021). Terms were agreed under the new Egyptian mining code,
following a tax, rent & royalty framework (28% tax, 5% royalty and 15% freecarried interest for the government), with the new licences independent from the Concession Agreement (CA) for Sukari. We understand that one of the blocks is around Sukari, suggesting potential to discovering satellite orebodies within trucking distance of the plant. How this would work in terms of the interaction of the CA and the new framework remains to be worked out.
More ‘waste’ proves ore; waste stripping well ahead
Open pit mining continued to focus on the low-to-medium grade Stage 5 North area. As we expected, more low-grade ore tonnes continued to be mined than scheduled in Q2 2021, due to the conversion of ‘waste’ to ore during pre-production drilling. However, the strip ratio in H1 2021 of 6.1:1 (Q2
2021: 7.4:1) was higher than the 5.2:1 we had modelled. This was due to the open pit waste-stripping programme (important for future operational flexibility) ramping up ahead of schedule, exceeding Centamin’s budget for total material mined by 7Mt (of which Centamin’s own fleet accounted for 5Mt while the contractor was 2Mt ahead of plan, we understand).
CONT-
Hi Mr Tibbles
I didn't know about the diagnostic checker information. The car is always looked after by a VW main dealer and it probably explains why the diagnostic check cost £50, providing a fault is found. It was used on the car a little while ago when the indicator came on. There was an ignition fault - misfiring. This time the indicator has come on but the car drives perfectly well. Perhaps they haven't cleared the memory although a similar thing happened a few years ago. The fault then was something to do with the engine breathing system.
I bought my car new in October 2005. It's a Golf Mk V 1.6 FSI and has been excellent over the years. I don't know much about the mechanical side of cars, but I have read that the Golf MkVI is probably the last Golf to have been built to last about 20 years with careful ownership. The new cars are rubbish, apparently; you'll get 5 years of use if you're lucky. I suppose that reflects how cars are purchased today - you tend to effectively lease rather than own one. So you're encouraged to change vehicles on a regular basis.
I bought a car magazine while on holiday the other week because it had an article on the new E10 petrol. Luckily, my car can use it although I'm am tempted to use the E5 super unleaded - at least for half the time. The car runs well on super unleaded; I tend to do about three consecutive fill-ups with super unleaded every 6 months to give the engine a clean.
I had wanted to wait until the new electric cars go more mainstream before buying a new one. I like the idea of the hydrogen fuel cell; I think they would be more like a petrol car in terms of practicality - five minutes to put the liquid hydrogen in and away you go. A battery electric would be no use to me at the moment - recharge time and distance restrictions. If my car starts to break down more frequently, I may need to get a stop gap car in the meantime. I have a double garage and I'll keep my Golf in there for retirement. Perhaps my daughters will inherit a classic in the years to come! Not quite an e-type Jag or Lotus Elan, but a willing horse. I'll even leave them the hollow stainless steel bar in the boot, that my dad gave me to put over the wheel nut wrench to help me leaver off the wheel nuts in case of a puncture. I just hope the Police never pull me over to take a look in the boot. 'There have been a lot of break-ins recently, madam, with what appears to be a metal bar!'
Talking of tyres, I need to get some before the next MOT. Goodyears!
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/goodyear-tire-ramping/
I'll try to post a rant about Boaris - and all politicians - later today. That should annoy a few scamsters.
Hi Red,
Considering your car knowledge you may well know all of this , but in any case it may help if you aren't sure how important the warning light is
https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/know-how/volkswagen-dashboard-warning-lights-what-they-mean/
It's not uncommon for engine management lights to come on after cars have been into some garages who plug in a fault code reader to get the initial fault code do the job , but either because their reader is'nt capable (not all garages want to pay as subscription to the service diagnostics weekly software updates) or because they forget fail to clear down the ECU fault code memory.
Basic fault code readers can be bought for around £15-£30 which are what they are ,OK to give an idea of basic easy to find faults ,but no use at all for much else, especially on newer cars with built in obsolescence as far ECU electronics go!
Bosch diagnostic kit is up there with the very best, if not some of the best, it copes with just about every car on the road, the technicians are required to attend specialised training g courses several times year and the update programme alone, the worship main diagnostics modules cost £4000- £10,000 each and all sorts of smaller units for battery, brake testing etc £60 -£150 each, then the software update subscription of around £4000- £5000 per year,plus technicians training and updating courses usually start at £250 a day plus accommodation if needed.
i have another friend who runs a Mercedes dealership and his manufacturer approved dedicated diagnostics set up started at £25,000, plus all the ongoing updates, however this is not any use at all on other car brands, although he has access to all new car software on the models release, Bosch have to wait 2-3 years to get some dealer only updates on latest models because of cars warranties.
So this puts in perspective the type of OBD readers that some car owners,mobile mechanics and even garages are using and may well be probably is why some car owners warning lights keep coming on.
Boris was good at getting in the press/media as London Mayor, as to doing the job from what people i know who still work in the council have told me, as London Mayor Boris never ever bothered discussing things properly with anyone, or bothering with the detail on anything, he never read emails or memos properly, spent money without considering if there was a budget and lied or bluffed his way out of trouble and if that failed then blamed others.
Problem is he thought he could do the same with the EU and Ireland, Boris has made an awful mess of Brexit and is fortunate that he has the pandemic to divert peoples attention,
The UK is down the lavatory pan, the EU may have problems but they are in a better place than we,Boris has made the the pound and the UK both a joke, just like flying union jacks all over the place when Scotland wants independence,the Welsh,well those stupid buggers are now crying because they voted Brexit, and Ireland, what a
Hi Cowichan, nails on the head!
You may recall this has always been part of martin Horgan's proffered options, if the terms are right is the key though!
Hi Tibbs,
Good to see you are still holding firm to your views of the World as I always get some merit from what you say even if mainly contrary to my views as to how to achieve better for our fellow human beings.
Lizzie and I have held premium bonds for at least 15 +years and the return is many percentages less than the return from Centamin and other shares we have held for a long time. Impatience (as a previous poster accurately posted )is not wise unless you can balance greed with fear , and not many can. Pro's excepted. Good to see the board maintains fine fettle and the depth of knowledge of the mining industry world wide is quite astonishing.
I am not gushing over Martin Hogan as yet but with the EU and the USA considerably exceeding debt levels to GDP and Lagarde saying she will maintain low rates even if in the short term inflation hits above the 2% level then as in the 60's inflation will attain a life of its own which Central Banks will be unable to control and overshoot raising interest rates to counter. I certainly dont wish to repeat those times where printing money was endemic.
Martin Hogan is still on my watch list but first term report would say "goal achieved but look forwrad to future prospects"
Oh well back in the bunker and kind regards to all long termers here.
Bob
Hi Mr Tibbles
Oh dear, the VW parts story sounds a bit ominous. On Thursday, a warning indicator started glowing on my Golf. I'm taking it in on Tuesday morning next week; the receptionist said lots of the mechanics were pinged, so Tuesday was the earliest time. I hope it's not too expensive.
Yes, I read that our Boaris had to be stopped from employing the 'nuclear option' on article 16 over NI. I bet he took a lot of pursuading (not) - tool.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/24/boris-johnson-talked-triggering-nuclear-option-northern-ireland/
Wall Street Breakfast: Brexit Tensions Resurface
23 July 2021
The Brexit drama is far from over, with the U.K. and EU on a collision course over the rules for Northern Ireland. It was only seven months ago that the two sides came to an agreement on a Brexit deal, but Britain now wants to overhaul the trading system for the territory. The special arrangement was previously inked to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland and prevent a backdoor for smuggling into the bloc, but the protocol has subsequently resulted in a fractious relationship.
Why is it still an issue? Northern Ireland's status is somewhat of a hybrid as it is still part of the United Kingdom, as well as the European Single Market. That means checks need to be done on goods that are traveling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland to block items from leaking into the EU. Most of the checks are carried out on the Irish sea border, which has caused tensions among the pro-U.K. unionist community in Northern Ireland, which doesn't like the idea of a barrier with the mainland.
U.K. Brexit Minister David Frost now sees the situation as untenable and has proposed a plan to substantially rewrite the Northern Ireland protocol. The deal would largely be based on a light-touch regime and the honesty of traders, whereby businesses would register their transactions and agree to inspections of their supply chains. Meanwhile, a deadline is looming at the end of September, when a series of so-called grace periods come to an end and the full weight of checks are supposed to be applied across Irish sea traffic.
Going further: Frost wants to extend the waiver periods indefinitely, and if the EU doesn't put the current arrangements on hold, he's holding back the option of overriding the entire treaty unilaterally. If that would happen, the EU would likely retaliate with tariffs and sanctions, while the relationship would deteriorate even further. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU will be "creative and flexible," but has ruled out renegotiation.
Hi RED,
The UK is already in on ongoing train crash caused by driver Boris and his cabinet of liars , its well under way in Ireland and the shortages on the UK supermarket shelves are more to do with shortage of stock , the mangers of our local Co-op and Lidl stores both confirmed they are receiving a third of their usual deliveries because the distribution warehouses have been told to ration stock to each store so they at least have something put-on the shelves!
My friend who owns the local Bosch car repair franchise has 3 x BMW's , 2 x Audis and 3 x VW 's 3 x Alpha's, 2 x Merc's and Range Rover parked up in the back showroom awaiting outstanding parts deliveries that DHL say are held up due to having to undergo new import procedures which will incur extra charges, incidentally none of he parts were available from main dealers either countrywide.
Two of his best fitters a German and an Italian who waked for him for over 5 years each have both gone home and he can't find suitable replacements , also two of his reception staff are self isolating although they don't know way they were pinged!
The same goes for oil. However, have you seen the price of oil lately? The oil companies shares don't really reflect the price of oil, just as the gold and silver miners don't relate to the gold/silver price. Western governments don't want you to invest in such commodities or companies. Put your money with friend Zuckerberg. Reading Bloomberg this morning, I noticed the demonization of China is being ramped up. Oh, what a train crash this is going to be.
So! Time for some quotes:
'Be greedy when others are fearful; be fearful when others are greedy.'
'The stock market remains an excellent vehicle for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.'
'Remember that when you sell a share, it is almost certain that a large investment institution will have bought it from you.'
'Hold gold until you are old.'
Well, words to those effects, anyway.
If bulletin board scamsters really do get paid for writing their nonsense, what do they tell people who ask them what they do for a living? A financial advisor? Something far more rude?
Well, the worst job I ever had was my first job between leaving school and going to sixth-form college. I was a shelf stacker in my local Spar supermarket. Every Friday evening, a scallywag family used to come in about six o'clock. They would put the kid on the trolley seat, take a drink and packet of sweets from the shelves and let him eat them while they would fill up the trolley from all over the store. By six-thirty, the trolley would be full - as would the child - and then they would just leave the trolley in the shop and walk out without paying. My job, before going home at seven, was to race round the store and put back all the things on the shelves. The manager was too frightened to confront them. I named them the Trolley Hounds. I had about 8 weeks of this palaver and decided that shop work wasn't for me. In the end, the Friday evening girl, Kim, who was still at school (a year younger than me) collared them one evening and told them to either pay up or feck off and don't come back or she'd 'fecking do them'. They didn't come back, by all accounts, which just goes to show there are many facets to customer service. I never had the chance to witness the scene, sadly.
Clearly, there are jobs that are an even bigger waste of time than BB scamster. Mind you, they are probably paid far more than I was.
Off topic, I know, but I just thought a little story would bring a little cheer before we all become millionaires.
Steve I look to the future, which is good for us.
No matter what the SP does short term we have been promised the Divi.
The doom and gloom merchants on here are annoying, impatient people. Possibly with agendas.
And even if gold drops it's got a long way to go before it reaches critical. Which IMO will not happen.
Six months time we will be on the up.
GLA
Yes Razor- hence my post on all others. Take out the Oct2020 and it's not been that bad relatively speaking.
Surely this cannot drop anymore, been in this for far too many years and the torment goes on! Thank goodness I havent been topping up in the last few months. Looks like I will be soon though,will it be another mistake, I sincerely hope not!! Best wishes to all.
While I totally agree with Mr Horgan's reasoning regarding why Batie West might not be the preferred asset to develop first (he cited Burkina Faso country risk) I implore my fellow shareholders to raise the issue of proper disclosure with Centamin Investor Relations a.s.a.p.
By the way Mr Horgan is speaking it does sound like negotiations could have already begun with Endeavour (or someone) for the divestiture of Batie West - this should NOT proceed until the full resource(s) surrounding Batie West have been disclosed.
Think about it - whoever buys Batie West will have Centamin as a neighbor immediately to the south as the Napelapara deposit runs right across the border into the Doropo resource in Cote D'Ivoire.
What kind of future planning is this? Perhaps selling the project to another miner who could raise capital themselves and take on the country risk is the 'zero risk' route but that is no way to protect the greater resource corridor we've already spent a decade trying to secure.
And that does not address the fact that NO maiden resource has been disclosed outside of the original Batie West concession despite years of drilling and tens of millions in spending.
Have your say before it's too late. email or call
+44 1534 828 700
governance@centaminplc.com
alexandra.carse@centamin.je
------------------------------>>>
look at the tweet & like/retweet as you see fit
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1418698287658401793
.@LSEplc & @tsx_tsxv listed miner Centamin needs to disclose its true #gold resources in Burkina Faso including 600k meters drilling in Napelepera & Wadaradoo before divesting Batie West.
CEO Horgan — where's the maiden resource?
@BloombergTV
@adsteel
@GuyJohnsonTV
@VonnieQuinn
There has been a change of messaging:
"Separate discussions would be held with the government in the event Centamin discovered economically accessible gold at a satellite site of Sukari, said Horgan."
Previously management had said the old agreement would remain (a 50/50 profit share) on the entire presently held 160km2 concession.
Obviously there are already a number of known satellite deposits ready to exploit all around Sukari — so very good news. The anticipation of a 'new deal' has probably been the main factor in delaying the development of these satellites thus far.
https://africanminingmarket.com/centamin-to-begin-gold-exploration-in-egypt-after-government-talks/10761/
Precious Metals
Exactly. Perhaps geologists don't make the best business managers?
I meant it was unfortunate for us as meant the share price halved, I was not suggesting remotely Horgan’s fault, grateful for his honesty and clear up but some don’t seem to have taken his necessary words entirely on board.
Sotolo, On the contrary it isn't unfortunate, it was essential that the management made it clear that Centamin would only make a small profit this year, it is indeed great credit to Martin Horgan for being so honest about the mess that was created by the behaviour of the previous management and the forward strategy that he was implementing to put things right on a sustainable basis for the the long term future of Sukari.
Indeed he is to be commended. as are the teams who who involved in the clear up of the upper and lower shop floor's at Sukari which through their efforts is at present ahead of schedule and should achieve better production efficiencies than originally thought at the clear up plans conception, that of course is subject to final confirmation when the clear up is nearer completion.
The very positive aspect of this clear up operation is that it is revealing some previously unrealised information about the geological state of Sukari which may well bring other benefits once more is known.
Far too many unknowns in the world to predict whats happening with the price of gold, but taking the time to have a good clear up to make Sukari easier and safer to mine puts Centamin in a better place to cope whatever fate brings.
Production might be lower, but that's only on a temporary basis, and at least we can be pretty sure its going to be considerably better and at considerably less cost in the not too distant future and possibly most importantly of all we have a CEO with integrity as well as professional; capability!
Hi Cherryburn,
I agree some of the "Spivsters" you refer to use many different handles on many different forums, some of them have popped up here from time to time, they tend to be the type that contribute very little of any substance, but plenty of chat about their past trading prowess and tell people to to stay on topic or move on, I suppose its distracting them from promoting doom and gloom when they were pushing a short on behalf of some big clients.
Some of the said "Spivsters " on T2W and ADVFN forum's although they change their handles when people start to get suspect!
As I have said before anyone can be whomever they want to be on this type of forum and even a one or two of those who seems to be the good guys are actually sowing the seeds of doubt, but they are masters of the craft and carry out their installing of doubt in share holders minds in very subtle ways that are most convincing, its still happening and will be on the increase now the results are after all in line with what Martin Horgan previously stated.
Looking back through old posts where you will find the clues that will assist you in reading between the lines of the posts of those who are certainly not really on our side or even
actually Centamin investors!
Unfortunately management made it perfectly clear that we would only make very small profit this year and next, (assuming gold doesn’t collapse further) and the figures being right on course to confirm this has depressed the share price further which is hardly a surprise. The second half ( full year ) in jan will be even worse, then we’ll be the bottom and we should pull out and ale obey again in 2023 if all goes to plan, unless gold collapses. As said the management couldn’t have been clearer or more honest
Close Bang on 100p.
Spivs are taking us down a bit more next week.
Harumph.
Jesus wept..
Its really quite appalling that companies like EZY are still getting a bid