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Hi Mr Bond,
Exactly that, its the opinion amongst wholesale traders that there is a type of unofficial amnesty until early next year for the Comex clearing bank's to cover their unallocated open paper positions for fear of the consequences to the sector and the markets of just pulling the rug out from under their feet!
There is still the div yield to.encourage buying at these prices. Some of the best in ftse
I totally agree.
For Centamin to buy Capital would go down like a lead balloon in the market.
Also agree to the Nan on the street $300m is a fortune but a mining company can make mince meat of it in no time.
Sorry why would a mining company buy a contract mining company, just stay as an owner miner. Capital doesn't have a fleet of mining equipment in West Africa so there would still need to be a major capital investment. Also if they spend 210 on Capital they will still need funds to spend on the processing plant etc at Doropo and ABC.
Won't take long to spend the 300 million when they start developing new mines and they will be looking for reliable strong contact miners, drilling contractors and much much more.
Agnico Eagle to buy Canadian gold rival in $13.4B deal - all stock - 1% 'Premium'
touted as a merger of equals...
The merged miner will use Agnico’s name and have a board and management team drawing from both companies. Tony Makuch, currently Kirkland’s chief executive officer, will take the top job once the deal is completed, while Agnico CEO Sean Boyd will become executive chair.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/agnico-eagle-to-buy-canadian-gold-rival-in-13-4b-deal-1.1658434
------------------------------>>>
My Thoughts:
So what is in it for shareholders? Nothing. Most serious gold mining investors were already invested in both.
Bottom Line: It's becoming merge or shrink and become more irrelevant.
Also, Kirkland buying Detour a year or so ago was a survival move - allowing itself to be swallowed for ZERO benefit to shareholders is another survival move IMO
All I can say is thank goodness for the uncertainty in Egypt (court case, pit wall movement, etc) - it's kept (keeping) us from a similar fate (my apologies to those Centamin short term holders still underwater)
Yes Razors strange times.
When you look back at all the predictions for Gold prices in 2021 , none wewe right.
I think Basel 3 and the dumping of paper to cover the institutions until end of year is playing a major part of it all.
We shall soon see.
But what do I know?
Apart from better times ahead for Centamin.
I bought a lot of Centamin last December thinking they were cheap at circa £1.12
I’ve lately gotten access to available funds but because I’ve been watching Cey stagnate for nearlya year, I don’t feel any motivation to buy today. Gold isn’t going to turn because I’ve bought some cheap miners shares.
I remember watching for months at $1300 and couldn’t believe it continued to rise to $2k.
I sort of feel Centamin will spirt on the 30th but will loose it’s legs in a day or two with gold out of form.
Strange sitting with funds and the share price cheap and I seriously don’t feel like jumping in.
A word I like to use is ' muddling along' that is what most of us do for most of the time .. until of course a huge and sometimes unexpected event happens. Like Covid last year.
Most governments did respond to cushion the blow, but in doing so, they have no run out of all ammunition.. others prospered from it though . I made a huge amount of money last year with my contrarian 'recovery' strategy for stocks. .
This hasn't been repeated so far this year , with my selection of Centamin , so reading your posts on their prospects goldgnome brings me hope..
Regarding the unexpected shocks .. well the Dow , S&P.and Nasdaq are all extremely overvalued right now , by any measure you choose . The fact that it will crash at some point cannot be in doubt. It will happen. but that doesn't mean that in the mean time it won't continue to get even higher , but it's a bit like an elastic band , you can stretch and stretch it for so long, but then one of two things happens , it either springs back to past its starting point and we have all been there , or it snaps completely ..I am 63 now and that hasn't yet happened in my lifetime, so I have no idea of what that scenario will look like
I guess we all should invest in a little gold , as a last line of defence against an oncoming apocolypse ..
Or maybe I am being too dramatic and instead things will continue to " muddle along "
There is potential for a lot to happen. There are a lot of unhappy people, unemployed, underemployed, and employed but have not had a pay rise in years, etc and v little on the horion, (if they keep their jobs!). The traditional way of justifying a pay rise is a producivity increase, and this is almost impossible to imagine. Bureaucracy has gone mad, logistics is a disaster area, negatively impacting on, stock, supply lines, production, Universities have been shown to be a tad short on the money in their business model turning out graduates who do not know anything about entrepreneurism let laone how to do things...(not to mention management prowess), woke has spoke and continues to do so. Thanks goodness for commodity prices in Oz. I am titillated by the supersized evaluations on the new technology companies, most of which appear to have a very thin moat, and I guess it follows a short life, so best to ramp and dump as quick as possible.
Possibly a tad jaded commentary,
Whichever way they wiggle is going to cause more discomfort, to a a lot of people who are not at all comfortable now.
best
the Gnome
Needs pog back above $1800 and im sure the sp will rise back over £1
European indexes were slightly higher in premarket trading on Tuesday as investors continued to focus on the political situation in Germany. Olaf Scholz is hoping to form a government with the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) after his Social Democratic Party (SPD) narrowly won the parliamentary elections with 25.7% of the vote. However, coalition talks could take months as the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) which secured 24.1% will also seek to form a government with the two smaller parties.
The DAX rose 0.18% at 7:24 am CET, the FTSE 100 was up 0.09% at the same time and the CAC 0.11% gained at 7:11 am CET.
The euro was flat against the dollar, going for 1.16996 at 7:25 am CET, while the pound added 0.11% compared to the US currency to sell for 1.37137 at the same time.
Breaking the News / NP
A bigger risk might be the resulting hyper inflation as governments wont be able to afford the INTEREST payments on their debt , let alone wind it down .
Something will have to give ...nothing like a bout of hyper inflation to erode the real value of debt ..doesn't come without a cost elsewhere of course . In the end it's all a zero sum game .
I do find your comments on this reassuring and balanced. ...Whilst it might be too early to say , I think there may be signs that the share price is bottoming out , and that one piece of good news , released in a less than discreet way, could bring about an upswing in price momentum .
At the very least , in the absence of any bad news , there wouldn't appear to be any reasons to justify any further falls , apart from the gold price of course ..because at the moment, this appears to be the major price determinant.
Not necessarily .. Capital reported a record interim net profit at the half year . It could very easily be set up as a decentralised but centrally controlled upstream asset. Furthermore Capital has contracts with most other mining companies in the area . It might represent a strategic asset .
I agree it would be non core , and maybe too much of a distraction from core gold mining activity , but I wouldn't entirely dismiss it, without undertaking a preliminary due diligence review. .
Of course if the idea were to be dismissed for any of the above reasons , then there remains 30% of Centamins net asset base, cash backed, earning zero IRR
That's an idea. But I'm not sure the future ROI from a drilling company is very appealing - at least not to gold bugs.
My thoughts Cowichan is that Centamin has $300 million in the bank lying idle. Capitals market value is $210 million.
Centamin should be acquiring Capital not going into partnership with them ..but I have posted about this on another thread.
Hey steady on !!
Wanting to be taken over ?. .
I have the opposite view ...Cey have $300 million yes $300 million in the bank with no offsetting debt.
Put this another 30% of Centamin's entire net asset base is lying idle in the bank earning next to know interest
The market value of Capital is £150 million or $210 million .. even a 30 % premium on this would allow Centamin to acquire them , and still have money left over to carry out the exploration work it has already committed to ..
it's important to bear in mind that Centamin will be paying out $105 million in dividends to us this year alone .
The acquisition of Capital would no doubt bring about certain synergies and more importantly , increase its Centamins nfluence in the area Just a thought ..or rather a question, that I put to the Centamin Board ..it won't get raised on Thursday I know that , but it might stimulate some thinking and dialogue within the management team .
By the way if you want a good read , then read the LSE conversation for Capital . Centamin is mentioned quite a lot
There might well be good reasons why Centamin and Capital are not a strategic fit ( tax differences etc )
But I think it would be worthy of consideration
Reserve Bank of Australia in their June 2021 bulletin, titled The Global Fiscal Response to COVID-19 , mentioned ...“globally, the fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 crisis has been the largest and fastest in peacetime”.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2021/jun/the-global-fiscal-response-to-covid-19.html
According to the researchers, higher levels of government spending will continue after infections have been brought under control, although the emphasis will shift, with “a greater focus on public investment, particularly in green and digital initiatives, incentives for more consumption and private investment, and retraining programs for workers in those sectors that are expected to have been severely impacted during the pandemic”.
Not surprisingly, this surge in spending has pushed global government debt levels to the highest level since World War II.
According to the Institute of International Finance, global government debt climbed to 105 per cent of global gross domestic product in 2020, from 88 per cent before the pandemic.
https://www.iif.com/Research/Capital-Flows-and-Debt/Global-Debt-Monitor
Dillon Hale is an advisor to family offices.
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Total government debt could rise by an extra $US10 trillion ($13.7 trillion) this year to hit $US92 trillion, with developing countries accounting for the bulk of the increase.
The risk, of course, is that financial markets will eventually become anxious about this explosion in government debt, and will push interest rates higher to compensate for the growing risk.
Bring on a takeover, at least I can cut my losses and move on
I for one would not want any takeover , nor would the Company.
The future prospects are far too good.
The geology report out in recent days would makes a great read for any company interested in a takeover. I was thinking at this SP, the geology report is almost an invite for a takeover. Let's see what happens..... it can only be good right? I suppose it depends on your average. I am fairly new to CEY and would be over the moon with a £1.50 bid price.
In West Africa there are many well established Mining Contractors which is good because Capital will need to be keen with their pricing as it is a cut throat business and would be a fascinating head to head with Ausdrill/AMS as there will be the need for a total contract inclusive of drill rigs.
Equities on major European stock exchanges were higher in premarket trade on Monday after the German Federal Returning Officer released preliminary election results, according to which the Social Democratic Party (SPD) won the most votes, followed by the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union alliance and the Greens. Meanwhile, the UK has suspended competition laws to deal with fuel supply chain issues.
The DAX grew 0.51%, London's FTSE 100 increased by 0.69% and the CAC 40 gained 0.47% at 7:21 am CET.
The euro and the British pound were flat compared to the dollar at 7:24 am CET, selling for 1.17233 and 1.36780, respectively.
Breaking the News / MS
Torn...
I think it seems reaonsbale to assume they will go after that sort of target very quickly, and share the result.
One of things they are going to have to be caeful about is the gold turn around at the assay Labs in West Africa, if they want o effectively move the project forward quickly. It is abysmally slow, as it is in many places, so they need to think about this now and act quickly. There are ways now, as per a previous post I made
best
the Gnome
I remain fixated on the MandA activity, and the business starts in the usual place
A buyout boom fueled by easy money and a looming hike in the capital-gains tax is sweeping Wall Street deal making to highs not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.
Companies have issued $120 billion of “leveraged loans” this year through Sept. 23 to finance corporate buyouts by private-equity firms—just shy of the $124 billion record for the first nine months of the year set in 2007, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s LCD.
A mix of government policies have primed the LBO frenzy. Easy money and low interest rates have pushed investors toward the high yields that leveraged loans pay. Meanwhile, company owners are trying to cut deals ahead of anticipated tax overhauls.
Sibanye Stillwater's (NYSE:SBSW) CEO Neal Froneman has suggested gold miners AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) and Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI) should combine with Sibanye...
The cost focus as well as brownfield focus (starving greenfields exploration), lack of an low lying fruit for Juniors (plus lack of any success) has pushed themajor gold players into the MandA rooms for growth ... A McKinsey analysis (2020) suggests that, as a result, reserves of major gold companies have decreased by approximately 30 percent since 2012. So the deterent to date has been premiums in the market valuation of Gold Companies, but with the SP of most majors being down , then the premium to be paid is not the deterrant it used to be...and if the SP of the Gold Companies conintues to be down, and the int rates down, then life could be interesting.
Could the new man at the helm repeat his last performance, at Toro? Just an idle thought
the gnome