Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Shares on the major stock market indices in Europe were flat in the premarket on Friday, as the investors digested the Bank of England's (BoE) decision not to change its interest rate. European Central Bank's (ECB) Isabel Schnabel tried to ease some of the woes, underlying that the ECB is taking concerns regarding high inflation "very seriously."
On the COVID-19 front, The European Medicines Agency (EMA) urged people to get vaccinated with jab's booster dose, while the United Kingdom became the first country in the world to officially approve Merck's coronavirus drug.
The CAC 40 was flat at 7:09 am CET. Both the FTSE 100 and the German DAX were little changed at 7:26 am CET.
The euro and the pound also stood unchanged versus the dollar at 7:27 am CET, selling for 1.15520 1.34934, respectively.
Breaking the News / BU
Happy Friday y’al
Yep- as we’ve been saying all year, UNLOVED for now.
Gold down roughly 5% in a year, PMs around 30%
My main pension which is global equity based has risen around 20%
PMs profit ignored
We all hope it will change… soon…
“Also among the biggest losers are the miners Petropavlovsk, Polymetal, Centamin, Fresnillo and Hochschild. Presumably investors feel that havens such as precious metals are no longer required and that neither are their producers, although in many cases these firms are very profitable, producing cash and paying dividends.
“There are no guarantees that the performance trends of the last 12 months will continue but at least these trends give investors an idea of what is being priced in – an economic recovery, but one where inflation does not get out of hand.”
https://londonlovesbusiness.com/which-uk-stocks-have-done-best-since-pfizer-monday/
With regard to the assets held for resale ..these mainly comprise the exploration works to locate and quantify the gold resource and to evaluate and appraise the returns from the project. In that regard they will still be of value to anyone who intends to carry out subsequent mining operations .
Perhaps , there is the potential to trade this information in some way for mutual benefit ?
Just a thought ..
No I know about the previous administration, and what went on during their watch and tbh it is of little concern to me . I am only concerned with what happens from here. I wasn't invested when they were in place. ..why , were you ?
Regarding the boring details ..I do try to separate out the key points from the crackle and background noise. I miss things .. some of which are important , others less so . Conversely , I pick up on other things that may have gone unnoticed. Despite and notwithstanding my earlier remarks , nothing has changed my judgement in the soundness of my investment . I will wait ..returns will come .
Yes of course my focus is on EPS and corresponding returns. .what is wrong with that ? My point is about the integrity of the current management team. I read the posts on here and note the high level of respect they bring , nothing wrong with my reserving judgement on them until I see the fruits of their labours.
Your post just shows the need for thourough research.
Pardey now long gone gone ,was responsible for that ,by prompting from his wealthy master. N S.
There is a need to do much more boring reading Candid.
All you are interested in is getting out with a quick profit it seems.
So now you are trapped for who knows long along with many others.
Quote ,"not interested in minute details" was it ?
Thanks Cowichan for your clear and concise explanation .
My comments are as follows :
1. Like you said, the previous forfeiture of concessions and assets have already come to pass , but it does beg the question why did CEY hand over these key concessions to a 3rd party ( altairresources ) for them to exploit and realise their value .. why couldn't CEY have realised this value for themselves ..
2. Regarding the current Batie West project . I concur entirely with your views ..as an aside, when I was still researching Centamin prior to investing , I was drawn to the 27th May RNS because it began with the headline that the West Africa review had identified 'profit potential' .
It was only when I read the full transcript that I discovered Batie West had been ruled out due to insufficient IRR and had therefore been classified as 'Non Core '. This information was disguised within the main text. I can remember thinking at the time that this wasn't in line with what the headline had suggested.
Like you though and despite this , I did agree that Cey were right NOT to pursue the project on their own . They have scare resources in terms of mining equipment and manpower , and that which they do have should be allocated to the higher margins on offer at Sukari .
I also agreed that seeking out a partner to extract what value they could from BW was a good strategy.
What I didn't realise , until you pointed it out , is that the exploitation license ends this month . I went back and read the RNS and discovered this fact in the footnotes .. To me this is dishonest . There is absoloutely no way of seeking out a partner to take this forward with, at this late stage , because for all intents and purposes , the deadline has now passed.
If what I am asserting is correct, then the amount held as assets for resale ( $ 36 million ) is now valueless and will have to be written off.
I find this extremely hard to believe , because they must have known this when the accounts were being prepared .
I think the obvious action now should be , ( have been ), to attempt to extend the duration of the exploitation license . Are they doing this ? ( If not why not) , if only to buy time to find a suitable partner or sit on it themselves, in case the gold price reaches say $2,500 to $3,000 an ounce , (unlikely but not impossible ) where the project would then become a viable one
Disenchantment is the best word to describe how I feel about these events .
Local Egyptian billionaire, Naguib Sawiris, owner of AKH Gold, had one investment that initiated Egypt’s gold boom. Sawiris’s investment brought $4.1 million in USD to the region for investing in gold mining. These funds allowed for more contracts for workers with increased pay.
Gold Production and Export Contribution to Jobs
The primary mine in Egypt is the Sukari Mine. This mine opened in 2009 and started operations with a minimum of 850 workers. This number remains stable, but with Egypt’s decrease in gold exports, there is concern about employment availability.
The Sukari Mine is owned and operated by Centamin, a “mineral exploration, development, and mining company.” Centamin was founded in 1970, and as of 2021, employs more than 3,000 people. The lowest salary recorded for a current Centamin position is 4,000 Egyptian pounds, slightly more than 250 USD a month. Estimating with 4.5 weeks in a month, five days in a workweek, and eight hour days, 250 USD a month means that some Centamin employees live fifteen cents above the extreme poverty level, at 1.40 USD per day. Prospects for salary improvements were good between 2018-2020, but since Egypt’s decrease in gold exports, the funds are likely to tighten and threaten more workers with extreme poverty.
https://www.borgenmagazine.com/egypts-gold-exports/
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Is this 'Sawiris Propaganda' a sign of what's coming?
I think CEY is secondary to gold at the moment. Lots of investors (including ME) view CEY and other miners as a geared exposure to gold, not that interested in minute details on the company, as long as it's solid.
Don,to save time 35%Egyptian mineral resources Auth y.
34% Miistry of Defense Nat Ser projects org.24 % Nat Investment Bank. 7% Egyptian cCompany for Mineral Resources.
Coutesy of Goldgnome ,yesterday morning.
You dont get heaverer than that mob.
Cane, I meant the Q3 update on the 19th October - it’s since been falling.
A sustained rise in gold until December 1st would certainly help then it’s over to CEY to hopefully give some positive news to ignite the SP out of this down trend.
"I think the share price action since the update says it all."
You mean the CEY price action: +0.48% ? OR gold.
Gold is looking better, but it NEEDS to maintain some momentum. It's not exactly an explosive move yet. I'm going to get excited if we break $1830 and crack open the champagne if we get to $1900.
Looking at Shalateens Major holdings , and who are they tells all.
- Interpretation using remote data underway
- Local infrastructure and team being established
- Fieldwork to begin in Q1 2022
- 4 Exploration licenses in Egypt total area 2,902km2
- Framework to negotiate exploitation terms between the Egyptian Mineral
Resources Authority (EMRA) and mining industry progressing
https://s25.q4cdn.com/322814910/files/doc_presentations/2021/11/Barrick_Q3_2021_Results_Presentation.pdf
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This is the dawn of a new era for the Egyptian gold mining industry - sometimes I never thought we'd see this day...
This is worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zg7uDuSrE1A
Just so Steve, roll on Dec 1 for better or worse, and roll on gold finally getting off on the fast falling real interest rate, I expect a market tumble taking us down as investors raise liquidity and PE rates rise, even if gold rises at first, but then is to come very good as rest of market suffers. The big question is when, and maybe not quite yet as Powell is still letting real rates fall
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6861428239311650816/
updated numbers**
41 people from Centamin PLC viewed your post **
40 Barminco**
19 Maaden**
3 Gold Pyramid Group
16 SUKARI GOLD MINES**
3 Shalateen Mineral Resources Company
8 Endeavour Mining Corporation**
2 Aton Resources Inc.
Plus 19 Executive Directors of unknown origin**
newly added today++
7 Barrick Gold Corp++
4 Egyptian Mineral Resource Authority++
----------------->>
Compared to the last decade the speed at which the EMRA has made its latest move (i.e. awarding Shalateen PRIME concessions next to Sukari) may indicate a force greater than Centamin has spurned them to act FAST.
Any thoughts as to who(m) or what THAT force might be are welcome!
I think the share price action since the update says it all.
We have performed in line with pretty much all PMs ytd- sector remains unloved for now. As we all know prod dip from oct2020 caused the other exceptional drop. Dec 1st is important as I’m hoping on good news on Sukari, where we’re at and what future holds- it was Sukari that caused the dropsonof importance. All financials can be estimated - of course we are still in YoY comparisons so each quarterly RNS can cause a drop, as can full FY results.
Tornado over 3months Cey has underperformed gxj by -13.4% to -9.8%, year to day -31.4% to -17%, 2 years -32% to -1% and 5 years -41% to +30%. The price is an expectation of profit cemented by what profit actually is. A poster suggested we should shoot up on Dec 1st news, all I said is this is not definite and the continually falling share price compared to Gdx suggests we need a larger gold price rise than we are having to get us going. I think Dec 1st is likely to make a difference but more the end of year financials but which way I don’t know, nor how badly the news will be taken. Of course gold is a huge influence on the shares but as the above figures show rising gold does not convert to rising profits IF ounces fall and costs rise faster. So we badly need to see how bad the figures are, we have been told but will they be better or worse, which could give us a rerate to gold, tho hopefully not in the usual direction…down
I agree we need some politicians with integrity, genuine belief and some passion!
Of course a truly democratic electoral system would help to deliver some real option's and a more balanced parliament!
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/
Gold in pounds up £31 an ounce today!
The UK has been hobbled by Boris & his nasty clown cabinet, the BOE puppet governor daren't raise interest rate's because it will expose the true state of the mess the present government has created
Sotolo,
Wouldn't you be more content investing in something else?
Hi Tony,
Thank you for reminding us of this, you may recall how at times in the past "Uncertain" referred to this correlation between those charts and the Cey share price, seems more prevalent when there is some apprehension about what is happening at Centamin.
I remain very optimistic about the future, not least because Kees Dekker who knows his profession inside out is of the opinion from what information is available that Martin Horgan's operational strategy at Sukari is best practice and that as long as the POG remains around these levels Centamin will easily cope with what need's to be done whilst still making money.
But whatever happens at the present time things will get better and Sukari will emerge a far more efficient and indeed profitable operation on very much more sustainable basis.