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HI Rebess
Although Tibbs and I did not always see eye to eye he was always the conscience of this board and a very major contributor to both technical and financial matters concerning CEY.
I do wish him well if in some difficulty and look forward to when he can come back to full participation amongst us.
Bob
Rebess ,sorry to hear that.
Stay strong and Best wishes.
Want you back ASAP.
Hello everyone
Just to let you know that there will be a fall-off in posts from mrtibbles. - Hopefully, only temporary and I'm sure I speak for everyone in wishing him well and a speedy return.
Good luck mrtibbles.
Anyone aware of international availability and price of sodium cyanide used in extracting gold? Seems its production in Europe is being cut back due to gas prices.
A drop in pog was on the cards after speedily breaching $2050 last week, it's called consolidation, this was touted as a breakthrough in the Russian Ukrainian peace talks by some, total rubbish, Putin is on a mission to grab Ukraine end of. Pog is in a bull run due to war, inflation, soon
stagflation, and basal. Hopeful that Wednesday's figures are received well but it's the future figures that are important, if so we'll be looking at where we're at in the rear view mirror..
At Thursday’s meeting, the ECB left its deposit and main refinancing rates on hold, but announced it would wind down its asset purchase program faster than previously forecast.
The ECB could end its asset purchase program by the third quarter, and pledged to do whatever action was needed to fulfil its mandate.
The ECB also significantly upgraded its 2022 inflation forecasts, expecting consumer prices to rise by 5.1 per cent instead of the 3.2 per cent it previously projected.
But the toll on GDP growth is already apparent this quarter, and it now expects the economy will grow just 3.7 per cent in 2022, down from a previous forecast of 4.2 per cent.
‘‘The risks to the economic outlook have increased substantially with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and are tilted to the downside,’’ said ECB president Christine Lagarde during a press conference on Thursday.
‘‘While risks relating to the pandemic have declined, the war in Ukraine will have a stronger impact on economic sentiment and could worsen supply-side constraints again.’’
Economists in Australia have also begun to downgrade their expectations for growth, while increasing their expectations for inflation.
Goldman Sachs is forecasting headline CPI to hit 5.3 per cent year-on-year by the second quarter, driven by higher fuel prices and flood-related disruptions to food supplies.
But the surge in commodity prices is set to weigh on domestic economic growth in 2022. Goldman downgraded its forecast for GDP growth for the year by 30 basis points, or 0.3 of a percentage point, to 3.6 per cent.
CommSec on Monday forecast petrol at the pump will exceed $2 a litre. Every $US1 change in the crude price is roughly equivalent to one Australian cent at the pump, it said, all things being equal in foreign exchange and refining markets.
Stagflation risks mounting as prices soar
William McInnes
Central banks are faced with the daunting task of trying to unravel surging consumer prices driven by the conflict between Ukraine and Russia at a time when global growth is slowing, stoking fears stagflation could make an unwelcome return.
Inflation is already sitting at its highest level in decades in some advanced economies, and with key food and energy commodities spiking in the past few weeks, economists believe the peak could still be some months away.
But those sky-high commodity prices will weigh on growth, particularly for energy importers, leading the European Central Bank to on Thursday downgrade its forecast for 2022 output to 3.7 per cent, slowing from 5.3 per cent in 2021.
US consumer prices for February rose 7.9 per cent from a year earlier, the fastest rate of inflation in 40 years according to official data out on Thursday, and the sharp rally in commodity prices suggests the peak is still some way off.
The US Federal Reserve is certain to raise interest rates next week from its present range of zero to 0.25 per cent.
‘‘I think stagflation is a real risk,’’ said Damien Boey, chief macro strategist at Barrenjoey. ‘‘The US is heading for stall-speed growth on the back of various factors [and] Europe is headed for worse outcomes, notwithstanding the ECB’s currently optimistic forecasts. So, the big two economies in aggregate are not looking at much expansion, while inflation is elevated.’’
Key global commodities have spiked this quarter: wheat prices are already up more than 40 per cent since the start of the year. Ukraine and Russia alone account for 29 per cent of international wheat sales annually.
Meanwhile, Brent crude is still up more than 40 per cent, even after retreating from a high of $US139 a barrel at the start of the week. The May Brent contract was down 0.1 per cent to $US109.19 a barrel on Friday.
European gas prices have more than doubled since the start of the year despite coming off record highs through the week.
A short-squeeze in nickel sent the LME price of the commodity parabolic, rising by 130 per cent since the start of the year. Nickel is a key component of stainless steel, electrical inputs and lithium batteries.
‘‘The US CPI will potentially pass 9 per cent in the following months as it has yet to fully account for the spike in global commodity prices and the broader implications of wide-reaching sanctions against Russia,’’ said Cameron McCormack, portfolio manager at VanEck. ‘‘Stagflation is now a possibility. Investors need to prepare for this scenario.’’
To this ---->>>
"Hey B2Gold Corp. Clive Johnson - if you're going to strike a deal with Centamin PLC shareholders you'd better do it now before Barrick steals #Sukari for a song..."
#gold #Egypt Benjamin Scott Peter Montano Ian MacLean Michael Cinnamond Dr Alexander Antonov Ken Jones Dana Rogers Darren Parry Andrew Brown Randall Chatwin Brian Scott P.Geo Chris Power Kellyann Williams Standard Life UK Dimensional Fund Advisors Vanguard Hargreaves Lansdown Buchanan Capital Limited https://lnkd.in/g9XXXJJV
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_market-at-risk-of-collapse-if-war-persists-activity-6908487402927603712-lbgW?utm_
<<<<-----------
Personally I'd rather B2Gold approach Centamin shareholders directly than have Barrick seduce Centamin's BOD with the claim they are in a better position to advance Egypt's concessions, Sukari, etc.
At least with B2Gold any Centamin shareholder who remains invested post-merge would likely see an appreciable growth to a combined entity's share price - not so with monster Barrick
Helicopter now based at Sukari and is already carrying out aerial surveys, remember in the past even drones were banned due to Sukari being in a military zone!
As Das already suggested in the past a Chamber of Trade representing gold miners has been established and recognised as an official body by the Egyptian government.
Thanks Mr Tibbles.
It will be interesting to see what rrick the Bullion Banks will pull of next.
I suspect non compliance by the US.
They are desperate to hold on to major trading currency.
A wild animal trapped in a corner, Dangerous.
Broadcast 11th March 2022
The geopolitical after-effects of sanctions against the Russian Central Bank, and the resulting global shortfall in physical gold and silver supply.
The lifelong wholesaler goes into granular detail on the growing discordance between physical silver and paper SLV positions, delineating a massive arbitrage opportunity that has emerged in the market.
00:00 Start
01:45 Russia and Ukraine driving the gold and silver prices higher
11:01 Sanctions against Russian Banks affecting physical silver supply
22:30 Unallocated silver credit positions turned on its head.
26:10 Where does this lead gold medium-term?
29:00 Basel III Update for the community
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJ0XM8fufOQ&list=PLE1y8hGSqr8ar1gKUdfqFDK5ygLIlrdmz&index=1
Note - (The opinions expressed in this video of Andrew Maguire and any guest,)
Oops, did I just write that in the subject line?!
--------------------------->>>
"I'm visiting a mine in Egypt for the next two weeks. Some general metallurgical consulting work and also discussions on Aachen technology. Excellent trip so far, great people and a beautiful country. #gold #metallurgy #Egypt"
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/wiehan-botes-84888571_gold-metallurgy-egypt-activity-6907234752093663232-h-7J
<<<----------
The tech: https://www.maelgwynafrica.com/aachen-oxidation-technology/
I am happy for the dividend to be lower say at the Newmont level, but it depends on how they use the excess cash. Has to be used to grow the company and not be wasted on stupid pursuits
cheers
If you listen to Horgan's last podcast that's exactly what his plans are going forward..
I guess that assumption was incorrect the way things are going just now then..
A lot of costs such as currency hedging, procurement of diesel, supply of components, fleet procurement, purchase of chemicals for processing are all done in advance. The costs may arise further down stream during the year when re-orders and supply are needed. A key factor is demand destruction when inflation runs too far ahead and purchasing stops hence why it may pull back as business calibrates future product demand. For Egypt the price of wheat is a critical factor as a staple food supply. For this quarter and probably the next it is okay. It is possible that with UAE and hopefully Iran oil supply improving and USA covers its own needs and perhaps Libya and Nigeria holding up that the oil price and subsequently food prices rises will level off and the situation becomes more manageable. What is not known is new climate disasters or additional conflicts emerging. The company were wise in giving a high AISC range, they indicated it would narrow during the year as price visibility was better known and the ability to increase Centamin production was being delivered with more confidence. The company had an extensive economic assessment on all its processes and activities on-going. The solar plant coming on stream in June reduces 16% of all energy costs on the lower price figures a few months back. The savings on future higher energy costs will look even more impressive. In fact it might well justify a second solar farm being constructed.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_gold-egypt-miningnews-activity-6908122722065358848-pbTd
Twenty-seven dividend-paying #gold mining stocks compared
1) Centamin PLC 2) B2Gold Corp. 5) Newmont Corporation 7) Agnico Eagle Mines Limited 10) Newcrest Mining 13) Kinross Gold Corporation 14) Endeavour Mining 17) Barrick Gold Corporation
#Egypt #miningnews
------------------------>>>>
The link has the entire list on a comparative graph
How does everyone feel about Centamin's super-sized dividend policy?
Would it make more sense to maintain a smaller (perhaps average) dividend policy to free up cash for development/exploration as opposed to taking on debt?
Perhaps we can share with Centamin the results of an informal poll.
Yep- but the caveat on the AISC will be on how believable it is now- some costs like fuel go down quickly as they rise, so long as they have a handle on the others which tend not to eg wages etc and ensure they don't rise with this inflation bump (which I hope is short lived). I guess a deepdive into the assumptions will be required but again, as I previously said, fruitless generally unless on the inside...
The Sukari gold mine in Egypt is on its way to become a tier one asset with production of 500,000 ounces a year for ten years at an all-in sustaining cost approaching US$1,000/oz, said Centamin (LSE:CEY) CEO Martin Horgan, as a new mining code sees Egypt become a coveted destination.
17 minutes length
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-03-10/Centamin-s-Sukari-advancing-to-become-tier-one-asset.html
I agree with what's already be said. It's impossible to second guess the cost base other than what's in the RNS reports. Costs have shifted upwards we know for sure but what is procured where and how is impossible to foresee with any accuracy, as are any mitigations that were put in before the big recent inflation jumps. On the negative side, improvements took too long to turn round, which is why SP has lagged. Having said this, CEY, I think, are projecting on the conservative side over the next few years (and this has been stated on webcasts), so am hoping for no nasty surprises but some nice surprises in 2022. On the cost base, I do expect inflation to calm, flatten and reduce through 2022, more oil is being made available for example. I just hope next week's RNS provides no nasty surprises, as for SP in that regard, no one knows how much is already priced in! What gold will do in 2022 is again anyone's guess.
Prices of precious metals, often seen as hedges against inflation and commonly used as safe-haven assets during times of crises, decreased on Friday after Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted at a positive development in the talks between Moscow and Kiev.
The downtrend coincided with a surge across both the European stock markets and their overseas counterparts' premarket trading.
Gold declined by 0.96% at 6:39 am ET, selling for $1,977.43 per ounce, with silver down by 1.22% to $25.66 at the same time. A minute later, platinum dived 1.87% to go for $1,063.74 per ounce, and palladium toppled 3.1%, selling for $2,847.7 per ounce.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / BU
Going to have to watch the Gold price very carefully from here IMO - it is certainly not a given that it keeps going up in a straight line, it's certainly technically over-bought in the short term.
Major European stock markets jumped high into the positive territory deep into Friday's session following remarks by Russian President Vladimir Putin about the Ukraine crisis.
Addressing the nation, Putin hinted that there are "certain positive shifts" in the negotiations between Moscow and Kiev. On the other side, NATO confirmed its efforts in making sure the conflict between Russia and Ukraine doesn't spill out on the rest of the world.
The DAX jumped by 3.11% or 417 points at 12:36 pm CET, while the FTSE 100 gained 1.68% and the CAC 40 expanded by 2.77%. The euro climbed 0.34% against the dollar to sell for 1.10142, while the pound inched up by 0.15% to $1.31047.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / ND
US extends gains in premarket,
Dow over 400 points
3 minutes ago
Putin: There are positive shifts in
talks with Ukraine
5 minutes ago
Something just happened... Putin says certain positive shifts in talks with Ukraine: ifx