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https://twitter.com/centaminplc/status/1587369039256494081?s=46&t=4ofto_F1xyrpNNTaQVuWxg
Thanks goldgnome, very grateful for the time you have spent in your professional explanation of this aspect of the mining industry. Very good to have your insight and input to this board. I am sure others here will feel likewise.
Regrds
Bob
The Melbourne Cup Day (dedicated to horses) increase in interest rates (dedicated tohouseholds?) was inline with expectations (except my betting was astray and I lost the lot) and means the overnight cash rate has leapt from 0.1 per cent to 2.85 per cent since early May, the fastest tightening cycle in almost 30 years! And who would be counting?
Following the shock post-budget 32-year-high inflation result, economists and financial markets upgraded their forecasts for interest rates. Investors are pricing in a cash rate peak of almost 4 per cent by July next year, while leading economists think 3.85 per cent could be on the cards. And why not?
This is well above the 3.35 per cent assumption used to underpin the economic assumptions in Dr Chalmers’ budget, suggesting employment levels and economic growth could be squeezed further than expected.
Well all bets are on the table, and there are various horses you can rule out.
"Economista fristas" (barrier nos 4, odds 6,790,240,562/1), The radical left nag, lovely looking, runs quickly, but often in the wrong direction?,
"Prince Bizmark". (barrier nos 1, odds 26,780,240,329/1), Radical right, vegan, high blood pressure, seems a bit over the top and will get over the top of any young fillY!
"Elsepeth", (barrier nos 69, odds 7,437,212,329/1)has swapped genders every second month and third race, speaks in tongues, and otherwise is good in a party.
and so on and so forth
Great to have a laugh. The alternatives are a bit depressing?
best
the gnome
European stock futures traded higher in the premarket session of Tuesday just hours ahead of the US Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision.
However, on the other hand, extra pressure remains over the intensity of the rate hikes on the block. Earlier, it was known that according to European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, the likelihood of a recession has increased. Besides the latter, today, European investors are ready for a fresh batch of economic data and the release of more earnings reports.
At 8:00 am CET, the German DAX gained 0.13%, while the CAC 40 added 0.31%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.61%.
The euro improved by 0.50% against the dollar at 7:59 am CET, selling for $0.99312. In comparison, the pound grew by 0.61% to go for $1.15402 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Sukari looking at these for UG - twenty minute charge option - no emissions, less heat, faster, less maintenance, etc.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cat-mining_r1700-xe-brochure-ugcPost-6992867141494419456-D8BR
Bob
Block caving, in theory... everything caves very well according to plan. The plans are built arond rock properties, AND 3D ROCK FABRIC. Both of these are in fact poorly known in reality, which means that in reality the block caves do not go accoring to plan. When this happens one better have a very good recovery plan. You can imagine that the roof does not falling in as a single unit. But you get hangers...some are 50 to 100 meters above you...
Cave mining methods have become viable and preferred mass underground mining options where the objectives are low cost and high production rates. However, the cave mining industry has already entered into a less certain period or environment where some of the current cave mining options are already showing not to be fully suitable to achieving the envisaged low cost and high productivity objectives. This environment includes deeper and sometimes blind deposits (up to 1,400 m from surface), lower average grade deposits, harder and heterogeneous rock masses, higher stress and, in some cases, higher temperature environments. This is requiring design of greater caving block heights, demand for increased safety and productivity, and escalating mining costs (capital and operating). In addition, there is increasing shortage of technical skills, capital becoming more difficult to access, and communities desiring higher environmental standards. In this new cave mining environment, several hazards are identified that can have critical impact on safety, productivity and profitability. It is necessary, therefore, that these major hazards be acknowledged,and the likelihood of their occurrence be evaluated and minimised during the deposit investigation, mine design and planning, and operational stages of the caving process. These are not trivial issues and can have the most serious of consequences. They demand serious managerial and technical attention (Brown 2012).
... https://papers.acg.uwa.edu.au/p/1905_0.3_Flores-Gonzalez/
https://www.srk.com/en/publications/cave-mining-risks-not-necessarily-greater-but-definitely-different
Very interesting area, the future of mining large low grade underground depsoits...well the alternatives are not that great, or profitable.
good luck
the gnome
Hi goldgnome
Many thanks for your concise and insightful explanation . I visited a hard rock mine in Germany defunct zinc with 7 levels but bottom 3 flooded. It was explained that miners died due to inverted rock formation which dropped from the roof without warning. I may be wrong but does cave blocking avoid this but on a much larger scale. Keep posting these educational posts for those interested .
Regards
Bob
The genie is back in the neck of the bottle now in the US and will soon be in the main bottle, and the cork then on top. FED time Weds, and the markets expect 75, 50 then 50or25... here's hoping.
US drives whether we like it or not...
When the genie gets out of the bottle it is hard to put her back.
European data on Friday showed record inflation in Germany, France, and Italy, with figures due on Monday expected to show an all-time inflation top of 10.3 per cent for the entire eurozone.
Germany’s headline consumer price index struck an annual rate of 11.6 per cent in October, well above economists’ forecasts of 10.9 per cent. Italy’s raced to 11.9 per cent, against 9.5 per cent expected, and France’s rose to 7.1 per cent, topping forecasts for 6.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, economists said the full effect of inflation in the eurozone had not yet reached consumers and was likely to stay in double-digit territory for some time, keeping pressure on the ECB to keep raising interest rates.
“We think that the ECB focus on the likelihood of recession, the assessment of the 200 basis points of tightening so far, and the typical lag in monetary policy transmission all warrant some caution going forward,” said Fabio Bassi, chief European rates strategist at JPMorgan.
It is rather amazing to see the lift in theprice of common household items, the rising of taxes (or attempts), the incredible price rises in commodities, and energy, the freezing of salaries (been going on for a long time unless you are in IT) and the stupidity of the ruling classes in listening to the dicates of the chattering classes now amplified and distorted by social and mass media to the point of being deafening and stupifying.
We have people roaring about renewables when we do not have the metal supply from the mines (which have not been found) to make this happen, let alone make it happen according to the all in costing which has not been released. IN Oz we have sample supplies of gas, uranium, clean coal, sunlight yet we dont have access ot the gas we own (its all been privatised withthe notable exception of West Australia) and we are not allowed to develop a nuclear industry because of reasons which are not clear (depsite royal commisiosn to investigate and recomend that we do?!) - not enough work done? http://nuclearrc.sa.gov.au/app/uploads/2016/02/NFCRC-Tentative-Findings.pdf
Back onto the mines of the future for the energy of the future, apart form the fact they have not been found yet.
The latest IEA market analysis highlights the fundamental disconnect between fantasy and reality when it comes to renewable energy targets. The report concludes that the industry needs to build 50 more lithium mines, 60 more nickel mines and 17 more cobalt mines by 2030 to meet global net carbon emissions goals. All this in an environment where it is becoming increasingly problematic to develop new mines in many parts of the world
https://nabtrade.podbean.com/e/is-the-commodities-boom-here-to-stay/
Mind numbing leadership, is the new global pandemic issue (again).
New idea: Lets have a war with China?
the gnome
Bob
Block caving is defintely not exclusive to Newcrest. It has been around for a long while and is in operation by several other companies. It is the mining method of "future choice", but how well it works is someting to be very wary of.
Typically, cave mining operational costs are a tenth the cost of conventional underground mining methods. Despite the low operational cost, cave mining is highly capital intensive. This is because a large underground infrastructure platform needs to be established before production can proceed. For example, Codelco, Chile’s state-owned miner, will be investing $5.6 billion to convert the century-old Chuquicamata open pit mine into an underground project (Casey, 2019).
How well the block caving can be implimented is alrgely a function fo the ground weakness and natural break. For instance in one of the mines I worked in, it was very difficult to stop the ground from caving as it was too broken! which meant we got a lot of overbreak. In another, the bolck would not cave to design, which mean large slabs of ore could be dangerously suspeneded in the roof, requiring a lot of attention and slowness and danger.
To balance large upfront capital expenditure, the mine must have a high rate of production and tonnage per drawpoint once the mine is in operation. The Chuquicamata mine in Chile, the Resolution Copper project in Arizona, and the Grasberg caving complex in Indonesia are some of the biggest cave mining projects, targeting a production of more than 100,000 tonnes of ore per day.
While caving methods can be used with any type of commodity, the key considerations are grade distribution, geological and geotechnical characteristic of the ore body. It is the primary underground mining method used for extracting large copper or gold porphyry deposits. Considered as dense, less than 2 per cent of nearly 2 billion metric tons of ore within the Resolution Copper project is believed to be copper, making it the fourth-largest undeveloped copper deposit in the world (Philips, 2016).
Smaller orebodies can still be economically mined, if they have sufficient height and metal content to justify the capital expenditure. Northparkes in Australia, Palabora in South Africa or New Afton in Canada are successful operations with a smaller footprint and daily production.
What is often not mentioned is that the fracturing in a lot of mines, is subvertical, meaning it is undersampled by vertical drilling. This means the real fracture pattern in a block that one wants to cave is not well known, and this is a major reason of FU's and failures.
Newcrest is mining a low grade inhomogenous orebody at Cadia. Their head grades are declining, their recoveries are declining, and the mine is getting deeper. Good luck with that
https://miningdataonline.com/property/185/Cadia-Valley-Operation.aspx
https://www.ausimm.com/bulletin/bulletin-articles/what-every-mining-professional-needs-to-know-about-block-caving--t
Hi Don,
Held Newcrest through many ups and downs and came out in 2018.2019 above water.
The AISC figures currently are rather alarming and as you say copper has held them up although declining now from its peak. One aspect which I find of interest is their exploitation of block caving . which they claim is exclusive to them . Can you offer an insight on this.
Regards
Bob
In terms of cost savings the market has little to choose from - the gold industry as a whole facing the highest production costs ever
For instance in Newcrest's Q3 results:
Telfer $1,895 AISC
Lihir $1,436 AISC
Red Chris $1,766 AISC
if not for Newcrest's integrated copper production averaging out the group's costs these mines' would be screaming 'crisis'
I guess in many ways most of us must be pleased with the CEY SP considering the gold dollar price has dropped and has been predicted I guess by some BB pundits to be in the 60/70's.
Has the market, started to really change sentiment on progress/hitting targets and cost savings.
Anyway, I am looking forward to 2023/24 for a significantly higher price please
CEY is boring as batsh*t at the moment & is likely to be so for a while yet before we see any significant improvement (or another major f up).
We may as well spend some time taking the p*ss out of each other, at least it provides some amusement :)
Well Sotolo I have put up with your posts so its equal.
You telling me to be quiet ,is strange. :-)
Major European stock equities were above the flatline in the premarket session on Monday as market participants awaited the release of data on inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) in the bloc.
Frankfurt's DAX rose by 0.41% at 7:11 am CET. The CAC 40 gained 0.34%, and London's FTSE 100 was up by 0.14% at the same time.
The euro lost 0.19% against the dollar, to change hands to $0.99472 at 7:14 am CET. The pound sterling traded 0.14% lower against the American currency, to sell at $1.15955, a minute later.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AB
Happy Monday y’al
Mr Bond, one can sensibly hold shares in a company one believes has great prospects even if one believes the board isn’t great, Cowichan is entitled to his opinions which I, like Bob, appreciate reading, as from all who post here, even if I often don’t agree with all of them. Now enough.
I, reairterate do you think the comany and CEO stupid - obviously yes.
The option if you do hold is .Guess.
Thanks goldgnome - your expertise in the mining industry (and many other things, really) is invaluable to us LTH's
Best, Don
Thank you Bob - I appreciate your ever constructive input
Best regards, Don
The key aspect of the gold assay is not the total amount of gold in the sample, but rather the total amount of extractacble gold. Its the extractable gold you make money from, the total gold can be misleading.
The other v important part is the sample size, especially with nuggety gold.
The delays in the Lab are not suited to the gold industry, and really prohibit true optimisation of various processes.
cheers
the Gnome
For an admirer of Barrick.
Not surprising connard. :-).
Hi Cowichan
Firstly please ignore the trolls on here who are not on the same game plan as the serious investors on this board . Your professional insights as to the mining industry I for one take very seriously albeit lacking the in-depth knowledge you have.
I do however have a good memory and the diesel subsidy was an integral part of the Centamin start up. As this was a contractual obligation (now subject to litigation I believe) I am at a loss as to why the IMF has not raised this in respect of its ongoing funding of the Egyptian industrial future.
Regrds
Bob
https://www.centamin.com/media/2873/cey_sukari-site-visit_presentation_011122_final.pdf
It would be nice to know which companies/people are coming to visit Sukari
For what it's worth Barrick's CEO Bristow times his yearly MENA visit (Ma'aden/Jabal Sayid)
around now. Plus he'll be in London Nov 3
"Barrick Gold will release its Q3 2022 results on Thursday, November 3, 2022. President and CEO Mark Bristow will host a live presentation of the results that day in London, UK, at 11:00 EDT / 15:00 GMT, with an interactive webinar linked to a conference call."
Yes, I said the same thing last year - so it's weak, yawn. There, I said it for you connards
Weak.