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Pull back overdone now and previous data earlier was key
Data released at around 15:00 was cause - data causes changes not charts :-)
Good question. So much for the NFP numbers. The market is pricing in a pause, but the bond yields still went up. Wasted the short position with just 0.6p gain.
Gap may be closed Tony so why is gold falling further?
The gap in USA gold chart now closed and gold now moving up.
Centamin and gold deserve to be higher on those Non farm pay rolls. How Centamin is not in the 90's after USA open makes no sense to me.
13:30 data looks good so far... looks like pause is more likely after this... although some revisions and commentary yet to come
CAPD have a contract in a very unstable country, Egypt. CAPD value could plummet any day. I hear from Cowichan the big investors are cashing in at Centamin, one of their big contracts. Too risky.
Berenberg have a 171p valuation and a Buy - they remain very positive:
"Shares in mining services provider Capital Ltd have room to double in price, after an in-line set of interim results, Berenberg said.
The investment bank has a 'buy' rating on Capital shares and a price target of 171 pence per share. Capital was down 2.8% at 83.00p on Wednesday afternoon in London. The stock is down 13% over the past 12 months.
London-based Capital on Wednesday reported pretax profit of USD23.4 million for the six months that ended June 30, up 55% from USD15.1 million a year before, on revenue of USD154.3 million, up 12% from USD138.1 million.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, adjusted for the accounting treatment of leases, rose 10% to USD43.9 million, from USD39.9 million a year before, though the Ebitda margin narrowed marginally to 28.5% from 28.9%.
The results were in line with guidance that Capital had given last month, with the revenue figure having been already provided by the company. Berenberg said Ebitda of USD43.9 million was in line with its own estimate of USD43 million.
Capital held its interim dividend at 1.3 US cents, which also was as Berenberg had expected.
Looking ahead, Capital guided for full-year revenue of USD320 million to USD340 million. This would be up from USD290.3 million in 2022. Both Capital Drilling and Capital Mining expect to see revenue growth in the second half of the year, it said, due to the start or ramp-up of existing contracts. These include the potential restart of disrupted operations at the Meyas gold project in Sudan.
"Capital has delivered a solid H1, underpinned by continued strong performance on the Sukari waste mining contract, and in spite of the shutdown of operations at Meyas Sand following the escalation of conflict in Sudan," commented Berenberg analyst Richard Hatch.
Capital has mining services contracts with London-listed Centamin PLC for the Sukari gold mine in Egypt. These were expanded at the end of 202.
"We continue to be encouraged by Capital's consistent addition of both drilling and mining contracts on high-quality assets," Hatch said."
Good drilling news overnight from CAPD investee company Awale's Odienne project, where CAPD are the drilling contractor:
Https://money.tmx.com/quote/ARIC/news/7422487696303553/
This is a key NFP- as it's been a while since the FED met and this is the last NFP prior to their next decision point. So far, since they last met, the key data points have been positive in terms of displaying tightening working (and hopefully this has WORKED (past tense)), so pause remains most likely.
Powell has always maintained the data led stance- so need a meet or miss today.
Interesting post Tornado, long term holders seem to have been waiting for ever for a substantial and more importantly a sustainable rise in share price, so lets hope is finally achieved in 2024!
By way of background, USA lost 21M jobs during March and April 2020. Around 1/3 of those jobs came back on line after the first lockdown. USA reshoring activity came into play in 2021 and 2022 and delivered 600,000 new jobs mainly in manufacturing and probably more in 2023.. As Covid-19 issues retreated the non Farm pay rolls surpassed the Covid-19 job losses. Biden claimed the net increase was 12 million jobs. however the NFP numbers register around 4 million. The huge fiscal programmes in USA probably aided to NFP numbers in Q2 of this year. The NFP have delivered a lowish number of 200,000 jobs or less in 2 prints in a row. If we get sub 180,000 this afternoon a trend will be forming. However the print 12 months ago was 500,000 jobs (2019 run rates were usually around 200,000 mark reflecting modest growth rates). The first hurricane has hit Florida and a number of stand by jobs will have been activated. The peak hurricane season commences from early September to late October. A low NFP number would show more significance supporting the trend with this situation as a backdrop. A very high number could suggest the opposite with the FED hiking again in September. So far this week it has been in favour of a pause and we could have an NFP number that is in a no man's land of say 250,000-270,000 jobs and gold does very little in response.
If CEY drops during September, I believe we get a relief rally on the week Centamin delivers a Q3 report. Long term holders hopefully to be rewarded in 2024 if Centamin delivers well on drill results and manages to replace all the reserve ounces that it has mined out during the year.
European shares traded mostly lower in the premarket hours on Friday as investors were digesting the last political movements in the UK and economic remarks of ECB and Bank of England authorities. Manufacturing PMIs from the EU, UK and Germany will be released today as well as Swiss CPI.
The DAX and CAC 40 both lost 0.33% at 8:01 am CET, and the EURO STOXX 50 moved down 0.31%, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.28%.
The euro traded without changes against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for $1.08456. In comparison, the pound lost 0.07% to go for $1.26647 at the same time.
More to come...
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AC
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend…
Gold flat at $1940
Let’s see if the market will give us our 2c divi back
Nice to see you have 2 friends ,tibbles.
Until they show their spots.
With just over 30 minutes to go it looks like a dodgers win.
The gold market is not seeing any significant moves in reaction to the latest inflation data. Prices are holding near a three-week high following weaker employment numbers on Tuesday and Wednesday. December gold futures last traded at $1,972.40 an ounce, roughly unchanged on the day.
Elevated inflation pressures could force the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish bias; however, many analysts say that there is a growing risk that the central bank will be force to end its tightening cycle before inflation is bought down to the target range. Market expectations regarding Fed rate hikes remain relatively unchanged following the PCE data. Markets see the Federal Reserve on hold next month and see a 50/50 chance of a 25 basis point move in November.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-08-31/Gold-prices-holding-steady-as-US-PCE-inflation-rises-0-2-in-July-up-4-2-for-the-year.html
“The quits rate, which is a much better guide to future wage growth than the openings-to-unemployed ratio, clearly signals sharply slowing wage growth, consistent with an array of other indicators. Given that the full effects of the Fed's tightening to date is yet to work through into the labor market, this suggests to us that any further rate increases would be overkill."
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=CEY&share=Centamin-PLC
Hi Paul,
Agreed, if things are going as planned at Sukari then needs to be a significant increase in updating and informing the market and shareholders , also some meaningful share purchases by directors could only help any upward momentum!
Keep well!
Tibbs
Need some continued good good news on inflation- fed pause is now more likely, let’s hope impacting data delivered continues up to the decision- inflation’s been stickier than a super sticky thing! The last thing we need now is higher rates impact lessening- the increasing expected impact needs to continue.
It's nice to get another dividend even though it is a smaller one, but it's a long wait until the next one now :-( .
Hopefully with the waste contract coming to an end and a few other things, costs should start to come down and profits go up and we will get a decent dividend from now on.
With the recent fall and rise in this, I was expecting a few "bought this at 80 and sold at 90"---------"Great trading share this" and "So predictable" comments.
They are almost lacking on this board recently.
Re invest the dividend for me-----reduced my average down to about 106 and look forward to a FINGERS CROSSED, much brighter future.
Equities in Europe traded mixed in the premarket as the Eurozone was about to reveal the preliminary report on inflation in July. Germany was also scheduled to announce its newest performance in retail sales and unemployment.
The DAX rose by 0.17% at 8:00 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 and the CAC 40 stood flat. The Eurostoxx 50 gained 0.26%.
Both the euro and the pound sterling stood flat against the dollar at 7:59 am CET to sell for $1.09178 and $1.27163, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
Who knows - maybe the terms aren't as good for the Mali people as they should be
that said, investors in B2Gold, Resolute & Hummingbird deserve fiscal reliability in order to spend 100s of millions in risky exploration
Very true Tibbs - without the 'blind eye' or outright support of stronger nations these repressive leaders wouldn't be able to continue unchallenged
Not free’
Africa has a number of countries designated as “not free” where regimes receive strong UK support.
One is Egypt’s military junta, which has arrested as many as 60,000 political prisoners since overthrowing the country’s democratically elected President Mohamed Morsi in 2013.
Morsi died after being put on trial and his son Abdullah is believed to have been assassinated by poisoning. Last year Egypt hanged 152 prisoners, including activists from Morsi’s party, the Muslim Brotherhood.
https://declassifieduk.org/britain-backs-most-of-the-worlds-repressive-regimes-new-analysis-shows/
Since 2015 the UK has sold £10 billion worth of weapons to the world’s most repressive regimes. Our government has sold arms to 35 of the 48 countries identified by Freedom House, a US based human rights institution, as “not free”.
Our UK government claims to stand up for human rights and only in March Dominic Raab, Britain’s Foreign Secretary, gave his support to the UN’s global ceasefire. While claiming such niceties, the UK continued to export weapons of war, helping to feed and sustain conflict across the world.
https://www.stopwar.org.uk/article/the-uk-has-sold-10-billion-of-weapons-to-the-worlds-most-repressive-regimes-in-the-past-five-years/
A good and interesting post Cowichan, as a source of information you are doing a great job, thanks.
But surely all is not bad in Mali, the article does say:
"The shortfall is around 300 to 600 billion CFA. So if the facts are established, it will be a question of re-negotiating what is renegotiable and recovering what is recoverable," Sanou said on state TV. "When we go into negotiations with the companies, it is possible that we will obtain 300 to 400 billion," he added."
Or is that a smoke screen?