Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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At the Denver Gold Forum
https://www.goldforumamericas.com/company-session/3042/
One year graph starts and ends in the exact same place. Most of the time Centamin performs in a similar fashion to Barrick Gold.
Extensive war crimes are being committed in Sudan as the conflict between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) ravages the country, Amnesty International said in a new report.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1138692
Ukraine helps to stand up to Wagner
Ukraine's intelligence services may be behind a series of drone strikes and a ground operation against Wagner-backed rebels near Sudan's capital.
https://tinyurl.com/mumt8h6z
Capd share price performance is completely dislocated to how the company is performing.
the main headwind is effectively the perception of african risk – particularly in west africa where there have been a series of coups (latest one in gabon, where they are now working for fortescue, a huge iron ore company and a big load & haul and drilling contract).
the reality is that they have a much larger non-african footprint than they are getting credit for – saudi arabia, north america and ****stan with barrick, a big chunk of their labs business is in canada, etc. and these are large contracts which will grow – look what happened at sukari! the drilling business is also the highest margin for the moment – msalabs will have significant margins once it gets to critical mass, but is growing very fast and that lowers the margin in the short term. but drilling is at 28% margin.
London-listed Centamin commissioned a 36 MW solar plant at its Sukari gold mine, located in the Nubian Desert near the Red Sea in Egypt, during the fourth quarter of last year, resulting in immediate cost savings and reductions in carbon emissions, CEO Martin Horgan has said.
At the release of the company’s report for the quarter ended December 31, 2022, on January 19, he noted that the commissioning of the solar plant would result in a potential cost saving of up to $20-million a year at current fuel prices.
Centamin said this also reflects inflationary pressures on the contracted waste-stripping programme, specifically from higher fuel prices.
https://tinyurl.com/2z9ckmfv
Due to the high energy prices, gold miners’ margins are going to be squeezed.
The junior gold miners have generally fallen out of favor, noted Cook. Even good news can turn into bad news for a junior miner.
https://tinyurl.com/43ku96z7
Rising debt and debased currency will push gold prices to record highs
Along with gold, Strand said that investors should look at the precious metal mining sector. Investor sentiment in the mining sector has struggled as the gold market has been stuck in neutral territory through most of 2023.
"Gold miners are cheap to buy, which makes them a great value play. They have also lowered their debt substantially, in contrast to companies in other sectors, for the last 10 years. With high dividends and a lot of M&A activity, the sector is really getting into gears," Strand said.
https://tinyurl.com/3mma8pbt
And to add Tony, no SP EVER works by simple statements like ... in the past when the SP was "nnn", gold was "nnnn", inflation was "nn" and so on- you should have figures this out by now.
Centamin, along with ALL other STOCKS and investments have to compete against one another for investment to mention one simple thing- it's like a department in a business saying "we can turn £1m into "£2m" in 6months, and wondering why they are ignored. They will be ignored when other potential changes in that same busniess yield far more with less risk.
Tony,
my argument makes complete sense if you read my posts correctly. Do you not understand that inflation reducing is still prices increasing, albeit at a lesser rate? (I've mentioned deflation before but not recently).
I am saying that the drop from 220 at the highs around 3years ago is NOT just to do with the wall (which Mr T constantly bangs on about) and would be sub £2 now even without that due to inflation etc.
Mr T,
Stop putting words in my mouth and READ my posts correctly as they are written.
Post 1 EXACTLY as I wrote it and NOT how you are deciding to twist it:
"There is no way this SP would be >£2 if it was not for the wall issue.
It would have suffered like the rest from inflation etc."
Post 2 EXACTLY as I wrote it and NOT how you are deciding to twist it:
"Miners are VERY HIGH RISK investments!
They all are and each have their own issues, CEY is no different.
Waiting for a "silver bullet" to cure issues and raise SP is simply unrealistic, the long term institutional investors follow the presentations."
Hi Tornado,
Thank you, yes correct , it was in answer at Steve, I take your point about inflation although that is likely always going to around it isn't the reason the share price dropped off from the highs prior to the pit wall crack , you obviously see the true potential of next year once the waste contract costs return more normal levels and the benefits of the redesigned Sukari operation becomes apparent !
p.s,I just noticed in my last post the good old spell check had corrected inflation to something completely different!
Tibbs
Mr Tibbs
I am not the one saying the share price was due to inflation and I presume your comment was to Steve. The argument by Steve does not make sense to me as the inflation difference now from H1 is quite small. The average share price in H1 was 106p. The company is trading 17% less on the SP when income earned overall has been greater in Q3 by around $1.5M dollars by my estimates. The retreat is because certain entities have sold off gold miner ETFs and put it into 5% interest earning bonds instead. Buyers of Centamin currently have a potential 17% upside plus a future dividend.
So the present share price is due to inflation , true inflation has some effect but over 50% come on and neither does a few pence here and there in the value of the pound against the the dollar, there will be fluorinations some more severe at times than others , but never over a 50% drop.
If that were true then all the institutions would have bailed out long ago and the mine would be on its way to being mothballed, but anyone wants to believe that than surely they ought to be reconsidering their position.
Lets wait and see what happens next year
So in your opinion had it not been for inflation then the crack in the open pit wall and the huge CAPEX for the complete open pit recuperating and waste clearance would have had no or negligible effect on the share price ?
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, we shall just have to wait see next year.
In one week the pound has dropped 2.91% against USD. The company earns USD and is priced in sterling pounds. So 88p last week is now with 85.5p. Centamin is getting no benefit in being priced in a devaluating currency. Furthermore the pound is expected to decline further against USD. It can not go on like this it makes no sense. If the pound was equal to USD on parity would it go up 20% or continue to stay where it was and then reduced further in price for good measure.
There is no way this SP would be >£2 if it was not for the wall issue.
It would have suffered like the rest from inflation etc.
Were a crock of s--t
We now know what happened regarding the waste clearance and "high grading" in the past.
It seems that every time Centamin got tipped by a newspaper that it would briefly jump and then something would happen.
When the share price went up to over 220p it was because people were being told that production figures were still going up. Didn't the ex police chief who had a job there mention 680,000 ozs?
As I have often said, Sotolo was expecting the SP to go up to £3 from the 220p --------WHY? It was probably because Sotolo was believing the hype?
Maybe if Sotolo is reading they will comment on this?
You have to ask whether people would have being buying shares at the time if the wall was known about and that the claims of increased production figures we a crock of S--t?
I speak the facts as they were at that time, every mine goes through crisis from time to time with the same result.
Other miners along with CEY are in the same boat .
SP is no real indicator of anything other than the buyers and sellers,apart from the institutional holders and they have stayed put.
Mr Bond, why mot admit it you just like disagreeing for the sake of it , over bought indeed, come on you know as well as any long term holder this was over £2 and would have easily remained so were it not for the crack in the pit wall forcing the admission that the mine had been poorly managed and high grading without adequate waste clearance for far too long .
This resulted in a loss of market confidences and a huge increase on capital expenditure for am estimated 4 years, true some traders did exit because of this but then what's new ,traders always enter and exit what ever the company or share price.
I'm sure though that members would appreciate hearing your reasoning as top why the the massive reduction in waste clearance costs with increased operational flexibility and accessibility to higher grades along with reduced diesel and haulage costs wont result in a rise in profits and indeed the share price.
Thank you
Hi Paul,
I also hope we get a vary decent Q3 and if so then possibly a rise of 10p or so would hopefully be possible and a welcome change, but that's just table scraps, what's needed is a steady rise by 50p or more as the waste clearance costs normalise and Sukari is proven to be operating with with more flexibility to deliver sustainable decent guidance .
Inflation unexpectedly fell last month despite fears about rising petrol prices ahead of the Bank of England’s next decision on interest rates.
The consumer prices index (CPI) dropped to 6.7pc in August, down from 6.8pc in July, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The Bank’s own forecast previously predicted that CPI inflation would rise to 7.1pc.
The fall came even as motorists contended with rising fuel prices amid a global surge in the price of oil, driven by supply cuts in Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey had suggested earlier this month that inflation could increase given that prices went down in August last year but up this August.
Policymakers will decide whether to raise interest rates from 5.25pc on Thursday.
Major European stock indices showed a upward trend during premarket trading on Tuesday, as investors digested Eurostat's report on inflation in the area and the latest OECD report on GDP. Later in the day, shareholders will also anticipate US Fed Interest rate decision.
The German DAX gained 0.16% at 8:00 am CET and the UK's FTSE 100 rose by 0.09% at the same time. France's CAC 40 was 0.23% higher while the Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 0.24%.
The euro and the pound traded flat compared to the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for 1.06810 and 1.23875 respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / RR
Happy Hump Y’al
I think I will not invest in gold anymore. Stick with tech stocks
Gold is hard to make money. USA will never let the gold price jump over 2000 mark. Us and allies has to much to lose. Paper gold wins
Yes Tony ,beer and skittles if they could get away with it.
Time will tell all, lord help them.
Https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/united-states-national-debt-tops-33-trillion-for-first-time.html#:~:text=The%20debt%2C%20which%20equals%20the%20amount%20of%20money,the%20debt%20topping%20%2433%20trillion%2C%20the%20department%20said.
Debt going up fast and a shut down planned for 30 September as highlighted when the downgrading of the USD was made.
Just imagine if all governments could run massive fiscal deficits and how good their GDP data based on debt growth would look. Next year it will be bread and circuses time probably for both USA and UK. I wonder what our currency will look like in September 2024. UK sterling lost the 124 handle today on USD. I suspect 120 cents for a pound by Christmas if we are lucky. Gold in pounds probably at a much higher price.