The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Tornadotony called it - incomplete data on market screener or just glitchy - whatever the reason this is the website data shown today:
Van Eck Associates Corp.
110,273,580 9.519 % 123 M p
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/company/
The Federal Reserve's aggressive "higher-for-longer” monetary policy stance continues to take its toll on gold as prices hold near their lowest levels since March.
While the precious metal has room to fall lower, one bank remains optimistic that despite the near-term weakness, prices can still rally above $2,000 an ounce next year and higher through 2025.
In her latest precious metals commentary, Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, said that gold prices have fallen more than 11% from their May highs above $2,000 an ounce as the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook has pushed long-term bond yields to their highest level in 16 years. December gold futures last traded at $1,833.60 an ounce, relatively unchanged on the day.
https://tinyurl.com/5eprrzh7
Exactly the same as last night.
Get used it .
Not far off the 52 week low ,quite concerning
Https://www.usagold.com/daily-gold-market-report/
$250B increase in one day. End of next week we can hit $35 trillion at that rate. Wow USD stays stronger as well. like Alice in wonderland stuff.
Not far off the 52 week low
Daily RSI hit low 19 earlier today but managed to close at 20. The lowest in 13 years I have seen on gold was a daily RSI at 18. I have never seen the daily lower. The weekly RSI has just dropped under 33. I write it on here as not how massively oversold gold is on this day.
Centamin plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, mining, and development of precious metals in Egypt, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Jersey, the United Kingdom, and Australia.
Snowflake Analysis
Flawless balance sheet and fair value.
Rewards
Trading at 60.3% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 13.23% per year
Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 69.7%
Risk Analysis
Unstable dividend track record
Profit margins (9.5%) are lower than last year (17%)
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-cey/centamin-shares
The analysts said that central bank demand is on course to see healthy demand for the year.
“This recent buying suggests that we have now firmly moved past the net selling we saw in April and May, which was primarily driven by heavy, non-strategic selling from Turkey,” said Krishan Gopaul, senior analyst at the WGC, in the report. “We are therefore confident that the long-term trend of healthy central bank demand remains in place.”
However, while demand has been robust, Gopaul noted that buying activity has been limited to a small number of central banks. China continues to dominate the market after it bought 29 tonnes of gold in August.
https://tinyurl.com/2h8unwws
Constant slipping. Simply wall st says:
Trading at 60.3% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 13.23% per year
Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 69.7%
so we're ****ed then!
Yes Robina ,seems you could be right.
Though there are many buys of just a few shares , maybe hoping to keep the price steady or hoping to raise it.
Dont worry ,at the current SP ,which is 20 pence less than the figures in the fundamentals which the basic value ,are just the crazy market makers .
Thanks Mr T,
I feel that controlling our population to a sustainable level for this planets resources is the main problem to solve over the next millennia .I hope that we can achieve this by peaceful means. I think that I have done my bit, in that all my children are our foster children. Mind you ,our children have produced 5 grandchildren ! I feel that every child must be a wanted child.
But as a liberal I am happy to listen and consider other points of view.
Hi Nunquam,
It's all well and good for people to claim that they are doing their environmental bit to save our planet by making changes in their lifestyles and habits including buying electric cars without realising that their manufacture and use are the cause of as much possibly more environmental impact and damage as the conventional ones they already have,
Yet people could make a really big contribution to helping to curb the destruction that mankind inflicts on the planet just by not producing so many children without considering the implications and the extra drain on the planets limited natural resources .
Off course in order to achieve this then out of touch politicians have to create a society which is fairer and the wealth in counties the world over rather than being hoarded by the political and other elite's is shared with the masses to provide proper opportunities , education, housing ,health and social care.
There seems to be more buys than sells today. Maybe it's just a blip.
Thursday even! 🙄
Equities in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Thursday in anticipation of the latest update on Germany's trade balance, one of the indicators of the state of the European Union's largest economy.
The DAX went up by 0.33% at 7:32 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 gained 0.34%. The CAC 40 grew by 0.33%. The Eurostoxx 50 increased by 0.44%.
The euro rose by 0.20% against the dollar at 7:35 am CET to sell for $1.05242. A minute later, the pound sterling climbed by 0.21% against the greenback to change hands for $1.21601.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
Happy Friday y’al
Weekend dead ahead, enjoy!
Japanese investors are also bucking the global trend of exiting gold exchange-traded funds, with bullion-backed ETF holdings continuing to enjoy strong growth since 2020. Japan added $18.3 million to gold-backed ETFs in August, bringing total AUM to $1.8 billion, according to data from the World Gold Council.
https://tinyurl.com/bdzn6tbb
"When Western investors wake up to the growing debt risks in the U.S., we will start to see investment demand for gold pick up," Robertson said. "I think we might be close to that point."
While Robertson remains bullish on gold, he said investors should pay more attention to the precious metals mining sector.
"Gold should always be a core part of your portfolio as an important insurance policy, but the miners right now are attractive financial assets," he said.
Robertson pointed out that gold's lackluster performance has contributed to significant pessimistic sentiment in the mining sector, creating substantial value for investors. He explained that according to some analysts, the mining sector has a discount of more than 72% compared to the broader market index.
"You still have to be selective when it comes to finding the right companies, but there is incredible value and opportunities for investors in the mining sector," he said.
https://tinyurl.com/4jyehnkn
Take a look at 5 year gold SP.
Then look a Centamin SP price.In 5 years
Compare !
In dollars of course.
Now exporting US goods ,because they artifically manage to keep the Dollar unrealsticaly high ,leaves its goods uncompetive- hence less export trade.
Time they let foreign markets ,decide.
Otherwise far less exports.
Whatever they have left the world wants , that means not a lot.
But it run up to their election year. ;-)
Insto's hold about 70% of CEY. Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index (!), and it follows they are strongly influenced by the index. Index is strongly influenced by POG. POG is down about 7% in the last month... The index is down 9-10%.
ETFs ... The third consecutive monthly outflow from North American funds – of US$2.7bn (-44t) – was the largest since September 2022 (-US$3.2bn, -60t). As the US economy continues to defy recession expectations, with resilience in household consumption, the 10-year Treasury yield rose further.
WGC Aug 2023 survey revealed that 24% of central banks intend to increase their holding reserves in the next 12 months.
No Tier 1 gold discoveries made in the last 5 years...
So it depends a lot on time orizons, and a few imponderables ...
good luck punters
the gnome
Thanks Cowichan
I would think it would be required by the market regulators, to inform the market of a top 10 movement. In Oz we have wording ... Under Listing Rule 3.1, an entity must disclose all information concerning it that it becomes aware of from any source and of any character, if a reasonable person would expect the information to have a material effect on the price or value of its securities.
Gold Price futures are all over the place in the sort term, but in the longer term all are up. Compared to other sources and experts, JPMorgan's forecast is higher than the average consensus forecast of $2,100 per ounce for 2024 and higher than most other forecasts that expect a moderate or a negative change in gold prices. A fair weight of money.
https://russellinvestments.com/au/blog/making-sense-of-us-dollar
There is huge appeal ot me ot break away from the US$ hegemony, and it is hard to think this will not happen. It introduces unfair assymetries into the market, China is rapidly expanding its global trading reach. It is well recognised that China has become the world’s largest trading nation. Less appreciated is the effect this has had in displacing the United States from its traditional dominance as a trading partner for other countries around the world. China’s economy is far more export driven than the US, it is deeply enmeshed in global supply chains, and has been growing much faster.
https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/charts/china-us-trade-dominance/us-china-competition/
In terms of policy drivers, many factors have been at play. But China’s 2001 accession to the World Trade Organisation has clearly been central, with the number of countries trading more with China than with the United States increasing rapidly thereafter. The US has been very unhappy with this for obvious reasons, and I think this drives a lot of the sabre rattling from the US, but rattle all they like, once the dragon awakes...As Napoleon said, "That is a sleeping dragon. Let him sleep! If he wakes, he will shake the world." He is well and truly awake, and the opionions of conflicted experts and "social influencers" in the west won't count a lot. The sun will rise in the east.
Aside ...Dont you love the US tipping system in the restaurants and arond....the minumum suggested tip is 20% now. Why dont they just pay people properly...full employment LOL
good luck
The Gnome.
Cowichan not doing enough homework and it would not be the first time marketscreener have given incomplete data.
Https://www.vaneck.com/uk/en/investments/junior-gold-miners-etf/holdings/
On this particular fund I could find 3m Centamin shares you may find them listed in other gold funds,
Centamin Shares Moved From Strong Hands To Weak16 Aug 2023 16:25
I see Siko's rebuttal to my posts about Egypt have garnered many 'likes'
I am glad Siko is still posting and setting the record straight about the facts on the ground
However, the bitter pill many private Centamin shareholders are refusing to swallow is that strong hands (institutional investors) have already made their decision to sell. Like I posted before the major shareholder info on Centamin's website is not up to date. Institutions that had held for over a decade have SOLD over 200 million shares. Now many of these shares are in weak hands. What does that mean? It means many new holders won't hesitate to sell when spooked. They are not in for the long term.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/company/
Centamin's management (chiefly Mr Horgan) has faced a confidence crisis and lost the trust of many mining analysts/portfolio managers - one remaining of which is reassessing her position. Actually THE largest position (currently Centamin's largest shareholder) You can contact her yourselves:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/imaru-casanova-75b58b64/
I will not be surprised if in the coming days and weeks she decides (if she hasn't already) to significantly reduce her Centamin holdings (nearly 10% of Centamin's float). When this happens it will be just more bad news for Mr Horgan and the share price stability going forward.
Can things turn around? Yes! The Market does not have access to the information Mr Horgan has access to. Step out drilling, geophysical surveys, satellite deposit resource figures and grades, the legitimacy (or not) of the bonanza zone, negotiations with EMRA, negotiations with interested 3rd parties - all is not lost. Yet, Mr Horgan hasn't made the choices that pleased the institutional investors - and many of the unanswered questions I've raised over the last few years are still unanswered (or the answer is not favorable)
Imaru talks about her promotion to manager of the VanEck gold ETF group of funds here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQ-8sNJeYlo