London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I'm finding more & more Barrick Egypt employee posts these days (which add up to about twenty or so Barrick Egypt geologists I currently count as LinkedIn contacts) these being the most recent
https://www.linkedin.com/in/bishoy-awad-ab492b209/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/emamahm89/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/wael-mostafa-8a0629129/
Of course not all have Centamin roots (maybe 25%) but certainly indicates Barrick is fully operational in Egypt and pressing forward towards a goal. IMO part of that goal will be to take over Sukari while it's undervalued and geologically underexplored
Speculation aside lots of good posts on the LSE today that pass without comment. Perhaps the most balance I've seen of optimism vs alertness. Although some prefer everyone who posts only post on the positive and move on from past mistakes - there are plenty of future issues that are anything but positive. I see the risks being:
1) Doropo will not be profitable (read viable with current grades/volumes) as the estimate to build was far too low (and the new management knew it whilst continuing to publish outdated estimates)
2) Waste removal of the Sukari north hill is not fully accounted for in future AISC projections (and the new management know it) therefore costs will remain elevated even when the current Capital project is complete in late 2024/early 2025
3) The EMRA has yet to decide on the exploitation terms despite 18 months of negotiation. The process was originally given a 12 month deadline. Perhaps they are waiting for new owners of Sukari?
4) Centamin's dividend will shrink or be eliminated while debt is incurred to fund exploration, expansion, rising costs, falling gold price, etc.
These future risks represent a compelling reason for Centamin's BOD to welcome a buyout. A larger company with deeper pockets can ameliorate such risks for Centamin shareholders. Is that positive for current shareholders?
Most who've commented in the past say they prefer Centamin grow on their own steam - but is that even a possibility without preexisting diversification , lower AISC (bigger profit margins) or even the professional team capable of making it happen ?
Thanks as ever Cowichan Spoonington etc, you are right that the variety of views and lively debate has been stimulating. Viz a potential takeover, if Barrick wanted Cey why are they waiting while the company becomes steadily more expensive? Could the Emra half stake be off putting and could it be ongoing negotiations with them?
Come on Sotolo- you know any company take-over is way, way, way more complex than that- many more levers.
Thank you Cowichan!
I really cant recall any benefit or advantage to me as a shareholder in the past when any company I have held was bought out, or went in partnership as a junior member, quite the contrary. there was of course usually a bit of a rise or spike in share price that more often or not faded away if things didn't progress fast enough and if the merger/take over went ahead all the DOD did well or very well whilst the shareholders of the subordinate/acquired company got shafted , especially so with anything concerning" Barrick" as Bristow screws everyone, shareholders, workers, the local community and he goes shooting wild animals, awful man!
In this takeover I suppose it was an awful company being taken over by another but much bigger awful company!
https://www.raid-uk.org/blog/acacia-mining-faces-new-human-rights-problems-tanzania
Acacia which was locked out of negotiations, insists its board must approve any agreement reached between the government and Barrick, and has opened a trade dispute arbitration at the international court.
The said agreement is meant to end a $190bn tax dispute with Tanzania and allow resumption of normal business, including export of withheld gold concentrate worth millions of dollars.
Yesterday, the writing was on the wall for Acacia as the government declared the company was “unwanted in Tanzania.” It demanded that Barrick sorts out the stand-off if it wanted the deal.
https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2019/Further-Update-Concerning-Acacia-Mining-plc-Acacia/default.aspx
https://www.mining.com/barrick-takes-acacia-mining-back-as-buyout-deal-sealed/
Hi Cowichan,
No denying Centamin is on its a(rse due to the deliberate and ongoing, although denied mismanagement by the previous BOD, Pardey, Youssef and the El Raghy family shareholders.
The market cap of the company is halved, the share price is decimated and the depleted dividend appears a very likely candidate for a haircut, unless they intend to subsidise it by borrowing!
With interest rates rising the Centamin dividend looks to be less and less attractive and yet shareholders are told to be patient, the good times are coming , the previous management has run off with saddle bags full, long live the new management!
Of course Steve, but Barrick is keen on Egypt as Cowichan just reiterated, Centamin is still good value and if Horgan is to be believed the mine heading back to tier 1, however I was just positing that the Emra might be one of the impediments? Unlike Tibbs I have done well out of takeovers, as always take the money rather than stay in, that usually seems to destroy value as he says, and if that is 50 or 60% above share price before I much appreciate it. But of course as Cowichan again points out, one of the great assets of this board is the cornucopia of views
I totally get why you are upset Mr T , but I think you dont need to bang on about it so much. I dont think it does much for confidence. Also pasting up old things about the court case or whatever could be confusing as someone might think it is current and not historic.
A couple of thoughts about the wall and maybe try to look at a few postives, moving forward?
It really does look (to me) like the last lot, really went after the high grade stuff and then when the situation was Iffy, did one. Thes could have not gone after quite so much gold and cleared some waste away and carried on for another few years before the stuff hit the fan.
When you think about it, the high grading didnt really benefit Egypt/ Erma as things have had to slow down to try to rectify the mess.
Im guessing Martin Horgan was aware of the situation when he took over and it looks like he is trying to do things properly and also he intends to stay for a good while. Could he have carried on high grading for a couple of years and then got out, leaving the problem for someone else?
Regarding a take over? I think that the situation in Egypt, with the speed of legal matters, plus any profit share agreement would put most people off.
With the new licensing, I could see a small company hoping to get some gold out of the ground quick and then do one if a take over offer came in.
SOOO ---the positives? It looks like Martin Horgan is in it for the long haul (pardon the pun) and with the waste clearing is doing more than he has too, so he can get a full swing at things in the not too distant future. The situation with legal and Erma is likely to stop any takeovers.
Hopefully gold will rise and the powers that be wont be able to blag their way out off the situation by creating more money from thin air.
I think you once joked about the worth of physical gold and that it would only be worth the same amount of physical gold.?
We know there are notes for many times more gold than physically exists, so what happens if there is a demand for gold? What do you back it with?
Im getting old. I could do with Centamin getting their act together and gold rising as well------before I shuffle off my mortal coil.