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This has to have been a terrible investment...especially those in at 2 quid......
I concur, an absolute stinker of an investment and a result of the management never being completely honest with the shareholders or the market!
For some of us longer term investors, the previous management made Centamin a hugely profitable investment for which we remain immensely grateful.
Don’t want to rub salt into the wound but I will anyway for a giggle 🥳😃
Hi Keeplugging
It's understandable on the information and media releases made available by the previous management and indeed the brokers analysis predicting a share price at nearer £3 why people bought in at £2, but unfortunately Andrew Padey, the BOD and indeed members of the EL Raghy family were glossing over how they were achieved by high grading and failing to have in place a fit for purpose methods or any method at all of adequately dealing with waste ore, also the open pit walls angle of inclination were too steep and there was inadequate surface water drainage at the top of the open pit, this all contributed to the inevitable and narrowly avoided near catastrophic pit wall collapse when the crack in the open pit wall became so apparent that it forced the previous management to confess their years of bad mining practice!
You may be aware that in the original Sukari agreement profit share didn't begin until all CAPEX costs in the building of Sukari had been recovered which would have been all well and good if the original open pit and the underground operations had been developed to the correct speciations for long term operations, but this wasn't the case.
So do we now have a situation where the new management through the deception and poor mining practice of their predecessors are having in many respects to redevelop Sukari from scratch which incurs a huge increase in CAPEX , this I suspect is very difficult, if at all possible to recoup from EMRA who were likely of the impression all major CAPEX had been repaid!
In view of this could the management now trying to renegotiate some extension of terms in the LOM plan
(That is he 15 year tax holiday coming to and end in 2025 but it also says that PGM will submit a 15 year extension as well. )
You may recall Hendersom's postings recently warning of some unannounced bur impending bad news, I wonder ?
The Suakari potential problems were exposed in 2015 & 2018, it is now apparent they were justified!
https://rb.gy/5qo6z
You clearly have no knowledge of the full history of Centamin and the outstanding accomplishments of the company’s founders and previous management turning a piece of desert into a billion dollar mining operation.
Despite your obvious lack of knowledge you continue to repeat ill-informed and erroneous opinions based on nothing but your own misery and ill will.
Why don’t you examine your own investment principles and practices and work on improving those rather than continuously searching for scapegoats to satiate your seething rage over poor investment decisions - this course of action may well lead you to profitable investments.
Spoon who threw you a banana....you have no idea what I'm doing ...I certainly didn't buy here at 2 quid like some others did.
Reading this bulletin board just once in a while is now painful.
What ever happened to the Golden flip flop party Mr Tibbles was planning, I suppose I can throw mine in the waste bin now.
For recycling of course.
Hi Keepplugging,
It's quite true looking at the full history of Centamin there there were some outstanding results , unfortunately they were unsustainable and the esults from 2018 have been erratic, unreliable and rated from disappointing to dire up until now!
True the previous management were very successful at cutting corners, glossing over the true facts misleading the shareholders and filling their own boots just before bailing out as the cracks appeared in the gloss and the pit wall, but that said they had exclusive knowledge of the true state of Sukari which obviously retail share holders did not!
Lets face it if the previous management had done things properly then they wouldn't have needed to bail out and the Centamin share price wouldn't be languishing at around 80p with POG @ $2000!
It is clear those that invested here at 2 pounds were investing on nothing more than feeling there was going to be a future profit, in other words following the sheep sentiment, sadly as so often,they did not look very hard at the fundamentals nor consider the risk, buying such a overvalued share ,at the time.
Yes I admit buying 10000 at 180 ,and not selling after the news. But I own many many more ,maybe to many.
But thats life, you live and learn. Invest only what you can afford to lose.
Like it always says investments can go down,be warned.
This one now is bargain basement buy.
If you cannot stand it get out ,and do not invest anymore in the market ,especilly now.
As Andrew Maguire says ,"how much physical do you hold".
Naguib Sawaris claims to own 20 to 30 % in physical, like housing , a secure investment.
IMHO.
If you read my post in context and took it in before flying off the handle you would have realised that my comments were in response to Tibbs post & not yours.
I neither know nor care what you are doing but I do like bananas if you would truly like to throw a couple my way :)
You might want to have a look at what happened to First Quantum in the Panama. Down 30% today
Hi Mizolgit,
It is depressing, Centamin is in the spittoon of the "Last Chance Saloon!" and is likely to remain there for some time, in fact it may end up down the lavatory pan the ways things seem to be going!
Wish we were only down as much, from the highs Cey is down well over 65%, the free cash flow is now a trickle and the dividend is table scraps!
Possibly Endeavour will make a bid again!
So Tibbs what magic wand would Endeavour have used to get the mine back on track? The good news as I see it is that Horgan and his team are close to the end of their 3 year investment plan and on track to get the mine back to generating cash.
Guess as I have said before we will have to wait to see if we are close to coming out of the dark and the next three months will be the next start hopefully of getting back on track .
Horgan said it often enough "Exciting" "Fantastic" hopefully we will be agreeing with him in the not too distant future.
It's nice to have a positive few on here Dasut.
Obviously we only know what we are being told, but it was the same with the last lot. Remember people were talking of "golden flip flops" , saying "Josef (joseph?) is an honourable man, "Good times are coming. Good times are coming", "Turning out cash like a demented cash machine" and saying they would not consider selling their shares for " less than £5"
So among all the gloom now, it is nice to have your view on things.
I would still like to see regular director buys though.
Hi Paul, fair comments , those times seem so long ago now and show how wrong one can be at times, especially when it comes to knowing who really has integrity.
Dasut also has a point about whoever took over Centamin as Sukari was in a bad state, but then Endeavour also has its problems!
The presentation was OK and they did try and tackle most of the questions (there were a lot!), although possibly blaming the market for the lack of share price performance is an easy ‘out’ and the value catalysts looking forward seem OK ,but not massively value changing, unless there are things yet to be disclosed.
Martin and Ross are well paid execs – look at the annual report and you will see what they earn, so they should buy when they can, but that said that they are so often ‘inside’ so it may be difficult for them to do that., or maybe what they see from the inside makes them want to keep their compensation in cash…who knows?!
Yes Mr T--they do seem a very long time ago. We have been bent over and shafted by the last lot. It shows that even people "In the know" didn't know that much. As with most people "in the know" and people predicting, they are right until they are wrong. I think of all the people and all the stuff that has been said on here , even the last few years ------and how often it has been wrong.
Maybe Dasut will step in with something a bit more positive after he reads the next bit?
Gold is hard to find.
Centamin found gold at Sukari and managed to mine it.
Sukari is still the 3Km bit, not the full 160km bit.
Law 32 is either forgotten about or just wont matter.
Therefore there should be the full 160km to go at when they want to.
I am assuming that there will be similar amounts of gold in the full area as the current Sukari area?
So should we be positive about that?
Hi Paul,
i honestly don't know. what I do know is though that it seems that those running mining companies , indeed most plc's always seem to do very well even in the bad times and do even better in the good times, despite being paid very handsomely they get awarded bonuses when tomes are bad and even more when tomes are good and all for just for what they are paid to do anyway.
Of course its not just industry now our chancellor Jeremy Hint who has frozen the income tax threshold for most ordinary people for the next six years wants to lift the cap off bankers bonuses, the very ones who who are usually responsibly for most of the financial crises and whom the ordinary people have to bail out time and time again!
Tibbs
Hi Dasut,
I agree no magic wand could fix Sukari, but that aside if a few would be suitors expressed interest in buying out Centamin it may at least be a catalyst to invigorate the share price or at the very least encourage others to look at the true potential and value of Centamin.
Tibbs what do you feel still needs fixing because where I am sitting if they achieve 4th quarter production the corner has turned and the new teams have set their own goals to achieve? Major capital expenditure at Sukari coming to an end and a good straight forward new resource in the offing at Doropo.
I am more optimistic than I have been for a long time, not jumping with joy but from a mining perspective I can see some light which reminds me of what I discussed with the Pharoah Gold teams back in the early years.
Next three months are however critical for the BOD to gain confidence from the market.
Hi Dasut
Considering you past processional involvement and knowledge of Sukari an very glad that you should feel that optimistic, lets hope your gut feelings are justified this time!
This needs an explanation Re discussions to alter the original arrangement?
The Annual Report shows payments/disbursements as follows:
$35M EMRA profit share
$24M Egypt royalties
$58M shareholders
So a pretty even split last year -
There is a lot of $ being spent and then 'capitalized' via the Capital waste clearing as non-sustaining the EMRA does have the opportunity to allow or deny a portion, thus Centamin not being able to recoup it, resulting in a payback schedule to the EMRA?
IF such a discussion is ongoing for a significant amount (i.e. if the EMRA demanded Centamin only be able to capitalize a stripping amount equal to the original LOM plan of 5.3 to 1 - I would expect CEO Horgan would be required need to make a clear announcement to shareholders of such a cost-recovery disallowance.
Traditionally these are the kind of things that get buried into the fine print of the annual report see an example on page 152 labelled key audit matter here:
https://www.centamin.com/media/2940/centamin-ar22.pdf
There is more details on the hows and whys regarding stripping costs being allocated as capital on page 182 - where it also notes that the rise in such allocations was deemed as significant!
So this would seems to raise a red flag at the EMRA) 2021 being $59M and 2022 being $141M?
There was something in the report about the 15 year tax holiday coming to and end in 2025 but it also says that PGM will submit a 15 year extension as well. IDK how a 50/50 profit split agreement could also be expected to pay income taxes and why such a holiday and extension would be needed - but I suspect it's not relevant to the share price yet.?
Tibbs my expertise isn't the fine print relating to creative accounting so bow to your knowledge as I say in my submission from a mining perspective.
Like many of us I have been in CEY for 10 plus years some at the low 45 pence 70/80 and all the way to probably 1.60.
Anyway, I have averaged a bit but still higher than this.............It would be good to see the corner finally coming please god and some positive for the future please. Even my patience will wear thin 2024.
Paul
The good times did come when the SP hit £2 given the price that I first got in at in 2008 was 30 pence. So when I got in the mine was a licence to print money and did very well until a few of my old contacts left the business one tragically died and the other took a well deserved retirement.
Unfortunately we then had a period of a few years where the over promoted geologist followed his nose looking to make a name for himself based on production rather than looking at the wider picture and long term and led us up a blind alley. Those who got out on the high won't think he did a bad job but those who held on think differently.
The rest is history, what we can't get away from however, if it hasn't been mined it is still in the ground so a valuable asset that unfortunately is buried deeper than necessary hence the additional cost to expose, there again is it an extra cost or is it a delayed cost?
Fair comments Dasut,
I have submitted the qusrtion to Centamin IR anyway, no reply as yet.
Tibbs