Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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The Reserve Bank has discovered its projections are overly optimisitic and worng (surprise?), and the realty being painted is very pessimisitic, and will be revealed in the next 3-6 months. Especially if you are in Tourism, Hospitalities and Universities (but they already have been "optimised" for the new economy), ... and now the Iron Ore and Copper price is tanking. AU$ diving.... on the race to the bottom.
Western Australia’s mining giants are facing allegations they have covered up sexual assaults and harassment by failing to adhere to reporting obligations under workplace safety laws...another "shock" to the resource industry, after the blowing up of sacred sites! and the increasing impossibilities of getting clearances to do any work (exploration, site development, expansions) on the surface in Australia. Drugs/gun running could be next? Higher EBITDA margins, and no ground distrubance...LOL
The HYPE is never ending: Latitude CEO Ahmed Fahour is confident Australia will hit its vaccination targets and is preparing (hinted strongly?!!) for a wave of “revenge spending” in Sydney in the run-up to Christmas as consumers finally can enjoy the things they have been deprived of during lockdown. .. debt?..reality please? ...HYPE of course ...because earlier this month he paid $200 million for a tiny start-up called Symple, deterred neither by its dubious spelling nor its mere $5 million in revenue...away we go...ho ho...OPM's.
A little more than a year ago, epidemiologist Tony Blakely was one of the loudest scientific voices supporting Premier Daniel Andrews’ bitterly contested campaign to eliminate COVID-19 in Victoria (after his initial distasters which he failed to take responsibility for, and thats another story of course, he could not remember? think 8 second attention spand, 5 second memory?).
Professor Tony Blakely, previously a supporter of aggressive elimination, says a more moderate approach could lead to better health outcomes (gulp) On Monday, with police pepper spray from a weekend anti-lockdown protest in Melbourne lingering in the city’s consciousness, the Melbourne University professor took the daring step of suggesting what amounts to Victorian heresy: the time may have come to stop battling COVID-19. Probably has worked out that as a tax payer he (or descendants) is going to have to pay for it LOL..for the next 100 years?
Bitcoin topped $US50,000 on Monday for the first time since mid-May as the spread of the delta variant of COVID-19 forces central banks to push back timetables for tightening liquidity taps. Liquidity, there is that word again.
And gold? My medicine has taken hold...
Could I boldly suggest that it will go higher, and much higher?
best
the Gnome
Wow ..quite a bleak picture you present ..you are probably right in all of your assertions apart from the share price ..this will act on momentum and at the moment it is still downwards although less so
The share price should follow the gold price...it it had any sense.
My comments are tongue in cheek and a parody of the stupidity being exhibited endlessly by the mass media (hysteria) machines. Really they have been, and remain, the most worrying global pandemic!
Edward Bernays would be restless in his grave at what is going on. Edward's (for the unitiiated) best-known campaigns include (not limited to!!!) a 1929 effort to promote female smoking by branding extra thin cigarettes as (extra sexy) feminist "Torches of Freedom", and his work for the United Fruit Company in the 1950s, connected with the CIA-orchestrated overthrow of the democratically elected Guatemalan government in 1954 (we dont want to go there! as its a long story)
Go gold !
best
the gnome
Ah ok gold. I have got you now. Am I right about the single mine with 12 years of reserves available ?
Sorry I posted the 12 year life of mine remark on the paper loss thread
n accordance with the Concession Agreement, a “Commercial Discovery” was declared in
November 2001 following the submission of a feasibility study by PGM; EMRA and PGM then
agreed on the borders of the area to be converted from exploration to exploitation lease
comprising an area of 160km2. The Minister of Petroleum approved a 30-year lease in respect
of 160 km2 on 24 May 2005, extendable for a further 30 years upon PGM providing appropriate
commercial justification.
The Sukari concession is shown in Figure 4.3-1. The concession covers an area of 160 km2
gjsrg. Yes I saw that ..but the company seem to be underplaying this in their accounts and annual report , so at this stage it's just a future speculative play ?
Why , are things at a more advanced stage than I have suggested ?
The category to watch for me is the Inferred Resource, and I would like several things to happen on this front.
1. CEY adds to the Inferred Resource
2. CEY adds to exploration discoveries in the and proximal to the mine lease.
Who has the ground
1. directly south of Sukari
2. NW of Sukari (Atud)
Noted: 79k m of open drilling and 49k m of underground driling, but no resource / reserve upgrade so I assume this is coming fairly soon.
Pleased with the way they are reporting hole intercepts, but would like these to be flagged as those inside the known resource shell, and those outside in future. Ditto for the confusing and amateurish dgm on slide 21 of most recent publication. Again are the shown intercepts in or out of the resource shell? I should not be left guessing. Like to see a clear presentation of what they see as the upside of the business beyond 12+ years into the future. Simply where is the next 1 million ounces, where is the next 5 million ounce position.
Whatever happened to the 3d seismic survey of the permit, much waffled on about by Pardey ?
Any business running in recovery mode with EBITDA margins of 50% is a great business! I could tell you quite a few companies not running close to this. (Harmony Gold, Equinox, AngloGold). Companies that are in this range are Centerra, Newmont, Barrick, B2Gold) ... so in good company, and undervalued as a business.
At a guess the large companies which need to grow would love to acquire a gold miner with Tier 1 asset that operates at 50% EBITDA margin, low p/e with 10+ year mine life, and exploration upside and infrastructure...
Go gold and CEY
the Gnome.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/208725/net-profit-margin-of-the-top-mining-companies/
best
the gnome
Goldgnome - amen and amen to all the points you've raised. In the past Pardey took pains to say Centamin wasn't in the business of bloviating like other miners. I used to think that was a more honest way to run a business but now I see it different. The more information the better. One item of particular note: The final open pit dimensions - surely these are due for a revision? Given all the positive resource intercepts that seemingly extend well beyond the current pit dimensions by hundred(s)? of meters. I am hopeful September's Life Of Mine review will tackle these and other not-so-minor details. Cheers
Gnome, while MaGuire always seems to call that gold is about to rise, and should randomly be right half the time, tho sadly rather less with current gold, while Sunshine and Todd Bubba who mostly call it down have been more lucky or prescient, you calling a rise is a different matter, streets wiser and not in the business of buying or selling gold. So I am encouraged!
As much as I am not seeking to be pessimistic here , it does help to take a more candid assessment .
As things stand , there is only one proven mine which is progressing towards the end of its cash flow phase . A 7% divi over the remaining 10 to 12 year remaining life of the current mine doesn't even recover the current share price .
Either Doropo or the exploration of land in the Arabian Nubian yield has to produce more positive news than appears the case at present .
If it does so, then the share price will rocket upwards, if it doesn't, and pretty soon , then further declines are inevitable at some point . Other considerations are of course future gold prices and for sterling holders, exchange rate between the £ and $
More informed views on future prospects welcomed
Do some more thorough research, or some might take you as a shorter. lol.
I am not a shorter Mr Bond any more than you are a trol so feel free to enlighten me and others on this board with your wisdom.
I do take your point though and my comments are quite contrarian to the optimists , but we all have stakes here, and it always pays to be on the cautious side.
Yes it seems they are positioning themselves very well for what is going to be a very interesting LOM presentsation in Sept, - next month!
The Pit dimensions will come from consideration of the conversion of Resources to Reserve study, and under the Resource and Reserve upgrade. All v interesting stuff.
I have not seen enough detail to know about block cave options for underground, they seem to be focussed on reporting higher grades, of commercial grade-thickness intervals suitable for narrow (although are thick!) veing mining, but there maybe other ways to mine, in what could have been an extensively brittly fractured intrusive?
I would like to see the expenditure expenditure profile for the LOM, and exploration targets along the profile.
Also, like to be very clear on what the LOM radius of operation is, from an exploration point of view, and like to see some description of the targets and their respective rankings within this on a map.
Should be very positive I suspect, The bad linen has been aired.
best
the Gnome
I am expecting a very well thought through presentation,
To perhaps state the obvious, Sukari is not a single mine. It is a mining operation with several mines, and in each, several working faces. Great to have these optionalities in the mining operaiton, and this is what the Mine Manager/General Manager and CEO have to work up/develop,juggle, balance risk, mix Geomet zones etc...
The new CEO discussed possibilities of accessing tunnelling's from the open pit when the clearance of excess "Waste" would make the West face safe.
But was honest enough to say ,he nor anyone was absolutely certain of quantity.
But that's mining.
At least if on track next month production of higher grades should start to ramp up to normal.
Fingers crossed everyone.
I think Andrew is right, but his timing maybe not right. The consistent loss of purchasing power of cash, over decades, has and is only going to get worse. The endless printing of money, creating assett bubbles in just about any asset (but cash), is breathtaking. The "new" move by the Fed to talk up a "new target" of lower (Quality?) unemployment is a distraction from their real business, and does nothing but further undermine the veracity and real-world rigour of their approach, and breeds continued mistrust and lack of any basis for respecting the gentlemen. They have to develop a far more convincing narrative and then rigorously follow with actions, to deliver outcomes that do not involve equity and housing bubbles galore
In Australia the RBA (our Central Bank), is now busy lowering their predictions (Modelling!?) on growth, by more than 50% (woops, sorry), but still do not have the key variables realistcally modelled. Our Universities are berefit of International students which has come as a shock and invalidated their sloppy business model, the hospitality industry is begging for help, and I just returned from a concert by a wonderful pianist, who was overjoyed to have an audience, although they all wore masks, and sat 1.5 meters from each other.
Our Prime Minister says people should be able to travel interstate to see loved ones at Christmas, as he continues to pressure state and territory leaders to stick to the national plan to start reopening the economy once key vaccination targets are reached. His pressure todate has produced pathetically little, and given we are now the "Un-United States of Australia", hard to see nation building, cohesion, national GDP growth or anything like this happening anytime soon.
Interesting to look at the 30 year gold price graph and it has been a steady trend up, with a large spike at about 2012, when the money printing ran (more?) riot. But really the money printing is still the biggest game in town. The 30 year gold graph has remarkable resemblance to the 30 year US Government Debt, and with Biden now doing trillions (I think in his wisdom dispensed with the small stuff, billions) with some weird and wonderful policies (and we won't mention Afghanistan)
So yes we can buy equity assets, and houses, and land, but somehow the pollies come running and tinker with all of this, and the walls come tumbling down.
So leaves the old reliable , that, ... yes goes up and down, but long term more up than down, So its all in the timing, but if your view is longish, rather than a quick one nighter
best
the gnome
OK putting in drives from the open pit ha been done a lot. Look forward to the LOM study
good luck to us all...
the gnome
People frightened to sneeze less we go into lockdown for a few years!
Mr Bond that is unkind, better to say to candid investor that we remain here as we expect new exploration to increase the life of mine
Hi Mr Gnome,
Kees Dekker has always been of the same opinion that Sukari encompasses many different area's of potential gold reserves.
As we are now well aware the type of coordinated and strategically planned type of working between the CEO the mine general manger you mention was certainly lacking in the past, Pardey was out of his depth and Youssef was mine manager in name only, both were unfit foe post!
Hi Mr Gnome,
To be fair anyone who actually has anything to do with Andrew on a more personal or face to face basis soon appreciate he is a very decent chap, he does try not to talk above ordinary people's understanding of what is happening in the markets in these broadcasts, difficult though considering what goes on by the second over the week and how much control the manipulators actually have!
I have no problems with Andrew M, and in fact love his presentations. There is a lot of detail, that he divulges, that is very interesting and pertinent to short term trading. To perhaps state the obvious, I am more into longer term thinking and positioning.
He brings into the picture a very fundamental question. If the powers that be (including my beloved economists), believe in the power of the markets, then they should have put top priority into making sure each and every market is a fair, level, fully informed, market place. Proper functioning of the market place is fundamental to design, and of course it is not ... almost by design! I appreciate its an outrageous idea.
If it is so dysfunctional (by design), just who benefits, and is the benefit fair and reasonable. So Andrew brings into view the contrived and invisible hand, and it is not a fair and reasonable market. So why don't we scrub it ina dn do something a lot better?
best
the Gnome
Its interesting with the LOM, in terms of what you go after in as to Resources and Reserves. To a degree, it imaybe a poor decision to portion significant money into discovering 30-50 years of mine life, as opposed to optimising the present and near future cash flow, maintaining EBITDA margins etc. Its a balancing act, often overlooked. I recall one high grade mine in Western Australia that only ever had 2-3 years mine life, but had so over 50 years! Another I worked on, had a mine life of 2 years when I started, then a life of 8 years after another 3 years had elapsed, and is still mining and discovering gold 37 years on!
Gold mineralised systems on the scale of Sukari, can go on and on, and typically do, but how much money do you put into defining mining reserves 10-15 years out into the future using money of today? And of course the other aspect is what happens to the POG and the cost structures over this tim period. The history of mining over the last 30 years have shown than on average the EBITDA margins have increased, so Gold Mining has become a better business, and hence more attractive investment propositions. See what Kees thinks about that statement?
Its a call that they may allude to, in the LOM discussions. If they don't I will ask the questions.
best
the Gnome
hi MrBond,
I also recall those statement's from Martin Horgan, they give the impression of a CEO with integrity who knows what they are doing!