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HI all, any ideas why gold was up on Friday when stocks were collapsing because of the over heating US market. I would have thought gold would go down ? I note bitcoin took a dive late on - but that was well after the event ?? Gold mirrored silver at the usual half beta level. NDX fell in sync but never recovered. Palladium and crude seemed to be doing their own separate thing. I am a bit baffled - as usual the financial papers will explain all long after the event !
Blimey, a 0.48% drop on the s and p, 0.37% dow drop and a 0,8% nasdaq and you call this a collapse?
I think you need to look maybe at your use of language- I'd call it normal movements on the data delivered this week, caused this type of price action.
All very normal.
To help, below is an example of what I'd call the start of a collapse-
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/the-sp-500-futures-hit-limit-down-at-5-percent.html
And the US markets are not "overheating" either, again based on data demonstrating economic conditions.
16 February was options expiry in USA markets.
On expiration day, traders can employ various strategies:
Selling a bear call credit spread: This involves selling at an intraday top and profiting if the underlying stock price drops.
Selling a bull call credit spread: Here, you profit if the underlying stock price rises, especially at a possible intraday bottom.
The options expiry moved gold futures higher late on which implies selling on gold bull call credit spreads.
The gold market may open closer to where the price was when China was off for the week as a result in Asian markets. If so I would expect the Asian markets to bring the gold price down to London close after they fill their market gaps when they open. It then favours a small move up on gold so that all gaps are filled in the Asian, London for the USA markets open. We shall then know the true direction of gold on Tuesday imop. The miners could well be flat if such movements do occur with gold futures.
Thanks Tornado, I agree its with your verdict - basically golds bounce off of 1200 was just a "technical" trade we will see more pull back if inflation in the states continues to threaten. I can't currently see an end to that without serious job losses in the US - and that of course means even more serious job losses here !
Gold futures beating Nasdaq futures at the moment. No smoke without fire !
So much for options theories and gold going down then lol- it’s gone up hehe. Yet again and again and again and again….. go on the data guys, not old cliches.
“ If so I would expect the Asian markets to bring the gold price down to London close after they fill their market gaps when they open”
Asian markets have closed the gap in the gold chart just as I said could happen. We now waiting for the gap created in the London market to close later this morning. It is so far going as I said it would. Steve I know you have your way of doing things that works with the way you invest and trade. We all have our methods that we find work for us individually. What is great that we share what we know about our methodology. The key is finding out what best works for our own way of investing. Most models that we use work 80-85% of the time and you were honest enough to say you have to reverse things occasionally. Gold direction is likely to be down this week is my opinion especially if SP500 retreats.
USA market is shut this afternoon. So the adjustments may await for tomorrow to all realign.
Tony you said
““ If so I would expect the Asian markets to bring the gold price down to London close after they fill their market gaps when they open”
Well so with gold at 2022 and the U.K. market close was about 2010- how is 2022 lower than 2010? Plus gold opened higher too.
I’m pointing out the hit and miss of approaches other than data- and so your a mile off 80% -
Only have to trad the evidence here over the past 12months- I’d say more like Ray below 50%
Not having a dig, I just deal with facts and they speak for themselves
I only post to help
I use a different trading platform for my crypto than my traditional stocks. The platform also cater for stocks but charges are a tad higher.
The platform boards are saturated with people’s chart theories, patterns, trading cliches and people making the odd success on chart then getting hammered when it fails- it’s absolutely saturated with these theories which simply fail.
Millman said that with U.S. markets closed for the President’s Day holiday on Monday while China’s markets reopen again after the Lunar New Year holiday, traders may be positioning themselves for a higher move in the short term.
“China will be trading for basically a whole session before US markets reopen on Tuesday,” he said. “Maybe the thinking behind this move is they don't want to get caught on the wrong side of it.”
Turning to next week’s economic news, Millman said that with the FOMC minutes the only significant release, he believes gold prices are more likely to decline than to rally.
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-02-16/analysts-doubt-golds-strength-next-week-retail-traders-dont-stop-believing
Meanwhile, China continues to assert its dominance in the gold market. According to a report from the World Gold Council, China’s gold market set all-time highs in several sectors in January. The WGC noted that 271 tonnes of gold was withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange last month, the busiest January on record and the third-biggest in the exchange’s entire history. Total holdings in Chinese-listed gold ETFs hit a record high last month At the same time, the People’s Bank of China continued to buy gold for the 15th consecutive month.
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-02-16/are-investors-swapping-their-gold-bitcoin-inflation-fears-rise
Steve
Gold went up to where Asian markets closed and doble topped. They did not come back down all the way to the London market close as USA market is shut until tomorrow. The gap in the London market remains and can either be closed during the day or by tomorrow morning open. I forgot USA market was closed this afternoon.
“ If so I would expect the Asian markets to bring the gold price down to London close after they fill their market gaps when they open”
Enough said.
I've looked through you past predictions and approx a 25-30% success rate is demonstrated, a country mile off an 80-85% success rate claim.
So many new people are pulled on trading based on chartists and their amazing predictions and so on- they lose their shirt.
This is all very sad.
Steve
My positions in 2023/24 are well up despite set backs. Portfolio overall up 6% plus dividends this year. I do not guarantee any forecast hence the word probably, possibly, may, could or whatever. It is all opinion and your time scale is very short. You claim a lot of success in how you do things and good for you. I know what works for me overall. All the best Tony
(Let us close this topic as a lot more interesting events could well unfold in the market).
I don’t, of course, post all my info here, but if yuou look back at my posts here on my views I’ve been right way more than wrong and it’s proven in the posts. I also post what data to watch and why- admittedly I only post a little of my data points, I don’t want to give them all away lol.
From your posts, the evidence shows a very poor predictive trade approach- the clear evidence is in your posts.
To make the profits you claim which I’m not disputing, but I am saying it’s impossible based on your posts here, so must be incredible success else unposted to get anywhere near your claim.