Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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I took a punt on this a few weeks ago despite it being on a downward path. Was just hoping it may return to £1+
Simplywallst says its undervalued. So we're &*£@ed!!
Fair comments Somnamna,I am certainly guilty of becoming too emotionally attached to this share and far too trusting in the integrity and indeed mining professionalism of the previous management, but that said credit where credit is due Pardey and the previous senior management were certainly dab hands at glossing over the true facts and stringing the share holders along with promises of good times just around the corner!
In hindsight long term holder are now all too aware of just what was waiting for us around the corner and it certainly wasn't a good time but a very costly and drawn out reality check!
But possibly its understandable why long term holders should forget the danger of becoming emotionally attached to a share when considering the Eygptian political turmoil and all the other challenges they faced together and got through!
I realise had we had Steve's attitude towards this share then likely most of us would have bailed out a long time ago along with Josef and the others, but we were all far to decent and far too trusting, but as we now know the market and certainly the company directors have scant regard for either of those virtues or qualities!
But that said it is they who are still the stinkers!
Lets hope though that at last before too much longer Centamin will finally deliver rather than disappoint!
The point about grid connection is that whatever energy is available it will be much cheaper and much greener than trucking diesel to sukari and running piston-engined generators off it in 45C.
European stock market indexes traded higher in premarket trading on Friday as oil prices slightly decreased but were on track for a 2% weekly increase. Investors are currently analyzing inflation data from Germany and Spain and consumer confidence in the Eurozone. Furthermore, a significant amount of economic data awaits investors in the region, with particular focus on the September inflation report for the eurozone.
The German DAX gained 0.59% at 8:00 am CET and the UK's FTSE 100 rose by 0.16% simultaneously. France's CAC 40 was 0.13% higher while the Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 0.23%.
The euro was 0.11% above the dollar at 7:59 am CET to sell for 1.05766. At the same time, the pound sterling gained 0.15% against the greenback to sell for 1.22214.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / RR
Happy Friday y’al
*Dividend Day 🔔
Enjoy your weekend!
Of course, the process of getting to this position has been very complex.
As for future… GLA… stick your own markers and data points
Yep- gold price is lower than 3 years ago, the bond yields are massively higher, and due to inflation the costs of mining are massively higher.
No wonder the SP is suffering like the whole sector.
Basic economics- when your costs rise much much much more than the value of the product you are selling.
I don't doubt what you say Tony, but as a, partly unintentional, long term investor I am wary of buying more.
My own fault but for part of my investment I have been caught in the it will be better in two years syndrome.
My current average is 110 per share. In the more recent past I am using a more focused and unemotional approach to trading, so may top up, but when is the right time to do so.
Thank you Cowichan for that informative post,, all very relevant stuff!
- the waste moving coming to 'an end' will help both
- connecting to Egypt's electrical grid may not help either
in regards to the latter;
"Egypt generates almost all of its electricity from fossil gas and oil (almost 90% in 2022). Electricity production is rising rapidly, driven entirely by increasing fossil gas generation. Renewables made up 11% of the mix in 2022, with only 4.5% coming from wind and solar."
So then, connecting to the grid is not exactly a home run for the environment - and maybe not worth the risk given energy prices in Egypt will likely only rise. also there is the risk of more energy interruptions
Egypt Buys Oil Hedge to Stave Off Volatility as Economy Squeezed
In a recent statement to Bloomberg, Egyptian Finance Minister Mohamed Maait revealed that, taking place during the current fiscal year, Egypt has hedged its oil supply. While not disclosing further details, the minister did note that Egypt’s imports total about 150 million barrels of oil a year.
As one of the few countries to do so, Egypt engages directly in the oil derivatives market to lock in supplies, wrote Bloomberg. These are closely watched by options traders and dealers as they can make the governments involved significant market players, the news site explained.
Earlier this month, an unnamed government official was cited by Asharq Business who revealed that Egypt purchased hedging contracts covering 35 percent of its estimated oil imports for fiscal year 2023/2024 against the risks of rising global oil prices.
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/127270/Egypt-to-hedge-oil-supply-during-FY2023-2024-finance-minister
Options in gold will be known in Friday's COT report. They clearly went short when the market was deeply short already. The relationship between TLTs and gold broke down in 2022 and is documented by Sprott. The reason for the breakdown is that physical gold within bullion banks is extremely low. What they are now doing with gold is highly leveraged and playing on low sentiment. It would not take much bad news for the public in many countries to buy gold. Gold in pounds is still a lot higher than it was end of June and early July. Only in America is it cheaper as those bullion banks need to buy at a good price and they need a lot of it. Hang in there and be prepared to raid your piggy banks.
The share price was higher ever before all the original Sukari CAPEX was paid off.
Its the cost of the waste clearance that doesn't things though and the value of the UK pound which is buggered against a rising dollar backed by debt and money printing.I
The decline over the last three days is only a partial story of the recent demise in gold pricing. Gold declined by approximately 3.8% in September alone. According to many economists and analysts, the current belief is that gold’s traditional role as a haven asset has all but disappeared. In light of U.S. equities trading under immense pressure as witnessed in the Standard & Poor’s 500 which is on track to decline by 5% this month, gold has no longer filled the void in times of uncertainty. Investors seeking safety amidst the turmoil of US equities have turned to cash and US treasuries which are offering the highest fixed income in years.
https://tinyurl.com/54mpvd5w
Why would they when they get continually paid great salaries and bonuses irrespective of comp at performance? They clearly invest elsewhere…
Put your hands in your pockets and buy some shares! It's a bit different actually using your own money to buy instead of being awarded "free" ones every year.
Yes sotolo regarding oil costs being higher,
The company accounted for it in the AISC target. Hopefully increased production will help a little. The company Capex may have been higher. The analysts have not revised the earnings forecast for this year. A good 3rd quarter may well have cleared 11.5c for 9 months with a low target of 3 cents in Q4. Around $15M or so in other savings was hoped to be delivered in H2 and that may help as a partial off-set in other higher costs. Tony
Major European markets traded mostly higher in premarket sesión of Thursday ahead of key economic data. During the day, investors will receive reports on consumer confidence in the European Union and the German CPI. Finally, the ECB will publish its latest economic bulletin.
The DAX was flat at 8:02 am CET, while the CAC 40 added 0.26%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.09%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading 0.18% higher.
At 8:04 am CET, the euro and the British pound were flat, selling for $1.05068 and $1.214 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Tony you are half right, however the costs in sterling have risen over the same time, particularly oil
Bitcoin? Few would answer yes.
How about gold? Same.
Ruble? Yuan? Euro? Yen? Good luck.
So what threatens the USD?
One could argue the strength of the USD is derived from the belief the USA is the strongest militarily, economically, etc.
So then the question becomes, has the US dollar become de facto gold?
If yes, then nothing - no downturn, no debt, will replace it.
Excess debt issuances can always be repurchased by the Fed - so perhaps the economic catastrophe that will 'one day' be good for gold - never arrives.
PS Just thinking out loud - I know nobody invested in a gold miner happily considers anything but a bullish gold view as the world crumbles under the wight of debt (alas, I also have several gold juniors in my portfolio) still one must plan for all scenarios
USA hedge funds tried twice to break yen. Looks like USA Treasuries were sold off in support. Somebody wanted this unnecessary event to happen. It will be interesting to see if Japan buys gold heavily overnight and replaces sold USA Treasuries with gold. It will be interesting to see if China also off loads USA Treasuries on the Asian markets. Perhaps USA wanted to blame somebody else for high interest rates, but they have clearly provoked what has unfolded. All in time for a nice USA government shutdown with a scarcity of data.
The hedge completes June 2024 and although waste stripping end this year it would be typical of Centamin to overrun a month or two and earn more money in Q4 by spending less on the waste disposal contract especially if the counter party wanted that arrangement if other contracts were getting put back.
Stocks dropping last few days and gold dropping with it.
Like I keep saying, sticks dropping and the common rationale for it not good for gold and certainly not good for cey- again recent events proving my point … again…
Am guessing the extra waste costs drop off before the hedge hedge does and the hedge removed the risk, which will be much lower once done
Gold price retreat from $1966 to $1897 is say 3.5% drop which is how much pound sterling has dropped against USD during September. The pence earnings per share is remaining the same.
SP continued to drop as gold dropped under the gold hedge- however, of course, the hedge amount will be reflected in to actual figures which is good.
Will be interesting to see what happens for the duration of hedge if gold continues to drop and of course, not so interesting if gold remains below, esp if significantly lower, when the hedge runs out…
Perhaps that $6M that was spent in July comes back into play. If Q4 was 1800 average per ounce then the $6M is repaid and the coverage in H1 is free. Average sale price in Q3 likely to be near $1920 per ounce. Probably any sell for the rest of this month is now hedged at $1900. If they hold $1850 average sales price in Q4 the annual average sell price would only fall to $1910 area. If earnings are 11p a share then 8 times earnings takes us to 88p. Previous PE multiple was 16. 50% reduction in multiples does appear severe.