The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
SC you have yet to prove yourself right. You have never got an SP assumption right, they have always declined. Look I am not trying to discredit you it’s just facts. I have never added, taken part in the OO and only hold 51% of my original holding and hope this climbs and I think it will , I’m not as confident as you, but will not gamble on this BOD delivering the goods.
If you have added then you’ve got bigger coconuts than I, good luck on that one.
Carlf: I have bought heavily since the Percy-1 spud result because I believe the SP will increase to more than I paid every time i bought since then. I have yet to be proven wrong on my statement when the SP was at c0.5p (worth 5p now) that IMO the SP had little scope to PERMANENTLY fall below that level. I still believe this is the case, but I'm not suggesting you should agree with me.
The OO/II dilution created a negative. But the positive was c$10m cash to reset CEG. Day traders live in fear of such events as they don't want to lock their capital for months. I don't care. Neither do I care if the SP hits 2.55p today, as IMO there's a lot of triggers over the next few weeks to potentially increase the SP substantially. Some I listed this morning. And Auctus analysts can see 12p near term potential without a full SWP roll out, let alone a major in the data room or a Bahamas farm-in.
I don't read tea leaves, but I do analyse stuff deeply, often sharing my opinions here.
GL
Starchild
But one could argue your just avg down your share price because everytime you buy in big, and say it’s such a bargain and at floor level it tanks again ..?
And if 25 percent of yesterdays buys was you and it’s still went negative with you trying to prop it up then the future is quite abysmal.
But how many times can one person be wrong coz been months and months now since you’ve been seeing this light at the end of the tunnel , yet so far just gets more and more distant but that being said I hope one day you are right just so I can claw a bit of money back out of this compared to what I’ve put in
Saffron 2 cost CEG $3m capex. Assuming $70 PoO , less $20 extraction costs = $50 gross profit per boe.,….
• 100boed: $50x100x360= $1.8m/yr
• 200boed: $50x200x360= $3.6m/yr
• 300boed: $50x300x360= $5.4m /yr
Deduct from the above gross profit:
(a) Additional G&A unless partly included in the $20 above
(b) Well maintenance, repair, weather downtime
(c) Transportation
(d) Storage if applicable (why sell for $70 if $80+ on the horizon?)
(e) Taxes and royalties. Although CEG is sitting on an $85m tax credit as at 31/12/19, some payments are due on every barrel. At >$75 PoO, an additional 18% SPT is due for $75+. It used to be @$50+ in CERP days.
Rhetorical questions:
1. How quickly will CEG get an ROI on its $3m capex if S2 production is 100, 200, or 300boed? I would argue even if only 100boed, an ROI can be achieved in 2-3 years subject to PoO >$65.
2. How fast can CEG self-fund Saffron 2-9?
3. When will an updated CPR be done for reserves?
4. When should CEG access reserve based or infrastructure lending?
5. Will pre-pay be used as in a bull market it may be inexpensive. Or store some crude in anticipation of a PoO increase?
6. And/or will CEG use its Bizzell facility in full or in part by the 31/7/21 deadline, where the funding bar is currently set to 8p SP? Remember the Bizzell deal is a slightly unusual CLN as only a maximum half can be converted to shares, the rest is a traditional repayable loan using shares as security (at 12% if I recall).
Depending on the answers, will CEG hit its target of 2500boed by Dec 2021? And if it does (or is projected to do so by 1Q 2022), where will the SP be by year end assuming PoO is +/- $70/b? What if it’s $90? And what if CEG gets a Bahamas farm-in 4th qtr?
Yesterday, more than 25% of all trades were mine as I purchased 500k more shares in 5 x 100k chunks. Why?
My analysis: PoO will meander its way to a large increase, Saffron 2 will NOT be a failure, Stena will settle in cash/shares, the Percy-1 autopsy will be OK, and the Bahamas license will be renewed opening the door to farm-in interest. In the unlikely event the Gov does not renew, CEG will sue for gazillions all the way to the Privy Council (if need be) which will be settled out of court (re-instatement of licenses, CEG concessions and cash) if the opposition wins the May election.
Refer to my previous posts for in-depth analysis, but always DYOR and make your own trading decisions, as I could have misread the tea leaves.
Watch this space.
IMHO. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Bohemia: your figures do not add up again. If 200,000boed, royalties are 12.5% for first 75k, then 15% for the next 75k, then 17.5% for the next 50k. Average 14.69%! Plenty of pie for CEG to share with a major and Gov, to make everyone fat and happy. Comparable, if better ROI for a UK major with a 75%-25% split vs 100% North Sea.