Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Uncertain,
Golf and fly fishing, definitely missing out imo. Luckily we're all different. Just had a look at their website and hopefully the 21 year old single malt and the 'LTD' is a cracker. I like most whisky but have a liking for the peaty Islay malts but have a diverse collection and you may even find the odd blend too !
The valuation on the deeps is a finger in the air job. If they can substantiate that 58km2 then you can start talking far bigger numbers and who knows what's in the Devonian.
FY results will be out in next 2 weeks and i suspect that 154 will be part of that if positive. Somm wants the CARP results out first but the way they've reported recently eg the domestic price move, they will want to dilute any poor news. I believe people will start to buy this week pre news and i'm hoping that it's not as disastrous as many expect. Also the numbers are 6 months old now and the 2021 financials with gross oil trading @ mid $60 average must be healthy providing they're maintaining shallow production.
Come on Mr Shin, need you to take control of all things operational and articulate how you're going to turn things around.
Does anyone have knowledge or experience on fracking oil wells? I've never come across fracking when it comes to oil.
What are the success rates and timescales on fracking?
When fracking for shale gas in the UK, it was met with huge criticism due to seismic activity.
Not into golf or fishing KK, but give me castles and a dram any day. We went to the core tasting at Lochranza. The 21 year old was very good indeed, and I took home a limited edition "Licensed to Distill"
I agree that with 4 deep wells @1500 bopd we would be well over 25p but it would be on the basis of more to come, not net profits and a P/E of 10 which is what I use. The P/E would shoot up well above that of course because more would be expected. The 25-30p range would apply to an MJF output in that range because more would not be expected from MJF
At todays prices:
$70 per barrel x 1,500 BOPD
= $105k per day gross or $38.3m p/a per deep
--------------------------------------------------------------
4 deeps gross $153m
Surely we'd be looking at >25p per share.
I wasn't in GKP at the time, but would be bouncing off the walls if we followed suit.
Oil at 2021 high, actually highest since April 2019 and another $8 sees it through 2018 levels. Before that, you have to go back to the period 2005-2015 to see higher levels and they were calling $200 back then ! IEA is calling for more output from Opec+ citing considerable increase in demand in 2022 ! Maybe we get to see3 figure oil again and all we need now is for Caspian to produce some.
Isle of Arran, now that's a luverly place if you get the weather. Only been there a couple of times in my golfing days. The Ayrshire cost a boat ride away, Troon, Turnberry and some great municipal golf courses too, add in some fly fishing, whisky and good company, can't beat it.
Uncertain, i take it you went to the castles and had a dram or 3 of Lochranza (-:
Back to Caspian and 4 wells @ 1500. If that came to pass, the sp would go way past 25p, the hype would be ridiculous and you'll have the rampers talking about elephants, billions of barrels etc. A pipe dream at this juncture, just got to get that first one over the line and investors in Caspian will start to have some proper fun and make some money on the journey.
The oil price rise trend line is remakably linear since last spring. There have been minor fluctuations with infection rates and vaccination rates but the overall trend is very consistent. The question is - what would stop it. Forward purchases now are for the early autumn and prices usually rise into the northern hemisphere winter. I would say $90 by the end of the year. Mind you I have been drinking a little of the whiskey I brought back from Arran.
I am back from my holiday with my dodgy spreadsheet! 4 deep wells at 1500 bopd each on top of our exsiting output would put us in the 25-30p range IMO but KK is right to say that the hype can kick in at this stage, and we could well see it go higher.
NAV?? NPV??? No my spreadsheet really isn't that sophisticated!
Fairly intelligent discussion here unlike ADVFN where all thats going on is mindless cheerleading !
The original projection for a5 and 6 was 3500bopd but dumbed down after all the issues. You can work out the lifetime value of one well over the license period at export netbacks of $45 on a 60:40 or 70:30 ratio. Haven’t got the production license as no wells yet and won’t apply for it until they have 3or 4 wins. Or even better still, you can ask Uncertain as he’s bound to have it in his spread sheet to work out the NAV, I’m being lazy !
That's a difficult question as a standalone deep success is the start of the process. The appraisal process and CPR will define what's in the ground, it will give the P1/P2 numbers which will define value. The initial seismic suggested that the reservoir targets were 100mmbls but it's been so long, i can't remember without checking the last IP (Investor Presentation). They are well overdue an update and hopefully our new COO will oblige. The 58km2 statement and the data collected showed the oil column @ c 100m for the wells drilled on A block to date. That's a huge find and much larger than the initial expectations but as we all know, that's yet to be confirmed and they'd need to get A5 flowing and 2 appraisals in order to undertake a new CPR and P1/2 numbers.
f your question is really what will happen to the share price on a deep discovery @ 1500 bopd, then that also is difficult but history has shown that 25p was achievable but as you know, hype played it's part back then. The difference today is that they've drilled 2 other wells, major drilling costs paid so if they could flow one, why not 4 with A9 plus future wells. If they can prove the 58km2 statement, the hype would be off the scale and it will get ramped, the Devonian will be in play and the share price will get well ahead of true value as happens in most cases. Also, they're far further ahead today than they were in 2013 from an operational perspective, know far more about the geology, the A block is far bigger than estimates from a reserves perspective and they have other assets like 3AB, CE and MJF that didn't exist then.
Re the Investor Presentation, i'd ask any investor to read the last one so that you could see what was expected. I find it laughable, actually fiction compared to the current position but the only way they change this is by proving up the first deep.
Loads of potential but at this juncture they need to flow that first deep to open Pandora's Box, that's when the real fun will begin . In the meantime, there's upside from MJF if they can get back on track with productive wells and who knows what will happen with 3AB and the CE opportunity. They need a competent partner for A9 or if they go it alone, they'll need an Appeal refund, SY back online and MJF with healthy production so they can fund from cash flow.
Clear as mud...lol
I
Not sure why I had 6500 on the mind. Thanks for your correction. Assuming we can obtain a well producing 1.5k bopd, what do you envisage the market cap should be?
I did a dummy sell today of my 400 000 shares & for the first time ever they wanted the lot. This gives me confidence that something is happening? It’s been a very hard slog for us long term holders but we all know the potential of what lies beneath. I believe it’s all about momentum & one good RNS can change everything in our favour so fingers crossed. Good luck all
KK how nice to read a balanced sensible poster however I think most of us who post now are all genuine and good people. I would say I am a mirror image of you and wished I had traded more rather than holding for the big one and fear of missing out. Unfortunately that is my weakness and have made the same mistake in ODX so I honestly think I should knock trading on the head and keep my money. However that said I am not selling what I have here until there is a definitive result negative or positive. What I now have here if I lose the lot I am prepared to do so and will hold until I either lose or we flow the deeps and fly. Keep the faith lol.
Unfortunately that will not happen and current expectations are that A5 will be the best we’ll at c 1500bopd. The only way they get a well producing those numbers would probably be from the unexplored Devonian .
The key to success will be to prove up Airshagyl block and I’d take 4 wells at 1500bopd and then a CPR to evidence their 58km2 statement, that would throw that cat amongst the pigeons !!
Discussion: If we flowed one deep at a rate of 6.5k BOPD , in terms of share price or market cap, where do you consider it to be? $70.00 x 6,500 BOPD = $455k Gross per day / $166m p/a
I'm reading also.
Oh yes, i forgot to comment on FK. From his posts, he was a prolific ramper who only saw one outcome. Not objective or pragmatic and openly talking to Clive, that isn't good as history has shown. He'd shout down any negativity and only one line of attack, that's what i call delusion. Plenty wrong with Caspian and plenty they've done wrong, mis communication, contradiction, lies etc but i still believe we get a profitable result, especially from this level.
Nothing wrong with trying to assess the highs and lows and from your posts, you've done that effectively to lower your average price, that's smart trading. My point about insincerity is when individuals mislead others when ramping when selling and de-ramping when buying.
My strategy has failed to date as mine has been largely buy and hold. Not to say that i haven't sold in volume, i have when i see considerable risk but i have more stock than i've ever held at this point in time and have been buying at the bottom. Could i have traded it and accumulated more stock, yep. Would that have been a smart thing to do ? yep but there is always a risk and a but and i'm happy to have lowered my average considerably by buying the lows. I only win if Caspian win and my approach is investment v trading and i'll call it as i see it but it's my money, my responsibility and as you like research, DYOR is essential as there is only one throat to choke !
I maintain that KO wants success or maybe needs success more than me and i'm investing on the basis that he'll achieve success at some juncture. Not been an enjoyable ride for the LTH but i still see light at the end of that tunnel and personally i believe it will get brighter, if it doesn't it's every investor's loss.
Enough about me, good to see oil having a go at $73 and who knows $80 may be achievable in the short term although i believe it won't go much higher but we'll see. About time Caspian delivered some communication that excites their investor base and there's still enough in their asset base to deliver a healthy return for many, hopefully sooner rather than later.
KK - insincere or trying to judge which way the tide is running ?
Too positive for 14 years and you are thought of as a flawless kicks type character, too in and out with the waves and you get accused of being insincere .... no easy answer is there.
Evening CC,
Yes, I suppose my posts do but it’s been consistent for 14 years. It’s the insincerity that I dislike, great one day, crap the next. I get down on Caspian and criticise them but I still see the opportunity I first saw back in 2007 and post to that agenda.
Hoping that our new COO has a good partner in mind that could finally solve the deep conundrum and I stay invested til I see that’s no longer a possibility.
KK ... so should I take it that your posts are to suit your agenda or you different from everybody else on here :) ?
I'm not after recommendations...lol, just some good debate and there's usually plenty of it on this BB. Shame that Adrianz doesn't post anymore or MO as i believe they were good contributors much that many ramp/de-ramp to suit agendas.
I feel that Caspian have turned a corner and hoping that the 1.5p low will not need a re-visit ever again. Caspian have a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory so hoping that they clearly outline plans and include some good operational developments to boot .
No you aren't talking to yourself KumKuat and just fyi, for me at least, I really do appreciate your postings!! That at 14:48 today re the anticipated 2020 results was, to me at least, very informative/encouraging. The 2020 results should be out in the next 7/10 days looking back at past few years ... ??