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Un,
As you say, Casper are certainly not the darlings of the city. An AIM player without any institutional involvement apart from Daehan Pharma which I find very odd, especially as it’s more than 10% of their m/cap !! Trust is an issue and unfortunately, until they move onto other indices, the regulatory powers are negligible and they can do what they want with little recourse.
If the news is positive and the price is lower than your spreadsheet, that’s great news, but loads more. Shallow production is underpinning sp and everything else is a freebie. Poor 153 and back to 3.4p before bouncing again or good news, through 5p. Both outcomes are a bit opportunity as so much on the go.
Let’s see what next week brings.
I see that in retrospect CC. Also in retrospect I see that the real problems came from a lack of reliable information from CASP.
The whole market knows about that now, which is why the sp is moving so slowly in response to what would be, in any other share, very good news.
How many good RNSs will we need to move us up to a level which corresponds to the position on the ground (or should I say under the ground)? I think 600 bopd from 153 should move us to 6p. I think further successes in horizontal drilling in MJF should move us to 10p. Likewise at Yelemes with the licence maybe 12-14p.
These are still very conservative figures with current price of oil, but the market still doesn't trust CASP. However I think the deeps, which will put a rocket under it, will need a good long flow test before the true value of the share is realised. A8 flowing may put us up to 17-20p, but a 90 day flow test will put the whole field into the valuation.
Unc, I say it as i see it, not always right, just opinionated.
We fell out when it was at 14p and Kairat took that loan out and I started selling down, they sent out misdirections that it was ok and improving ( as i saw it ) so I flapped between the two rebought and sold as the price moved, stockholm syndrome with CASP should have dumped the lot at 14p.
Now after they nearly got it to go bust it's a very binary play, back in profit, production increasing, Shin as COO I can only see blue sky.
I'm much more cautious rocketeer, I'm only aiming for 1000% at present.
Just for balance CC, you really used to annoy me in the days when you blew hot and cold about CASP.
Nowadays you blow warm or boiling hot and I can cope with that much better.
in a nutshell, we'll be seeing 80p soon. an increase of 2000%
Mike - nothing is ever nailed on , especially on AIM as it is a shark filled tank to swim in, things change quickly, companies raise unexpectedly and you have to cut and run or add to positions nimbly, no one should blindly buy another's stock opinion as will lose all your money very quickly to the unscrupulous, what I don't do (not saying u do either for clarity) is ramp a stock as I am selling into a rise - thats a bit too cu*ty.
Unc - i'm touched, have some current favourites i'm buying now that I hope will come off in a year or so's time, generally small oil and food chain related, some I tweet about.
One I bought at 25p for its stability going forwards was OTAQ, still holding at 35/42p recent range, hasn't released its news getting but is gaining traction, first target 80p, it could go silly with the last RNS and I believe from my research it has further projects to launch which are alluded to in the same RNS. Market segments Oil & Gas safety equipment, Salmon & shrimp sea net security & feeding equipment, Annual Sporting events monitoring systems, all inventions and products have a duality in that they are repurposed from its original industry into another one.
GTC - Hydrogen Really decent BOD, great connections, Geophysical data for Oil & Gas industry & mining - world class existing & profitable business, H2Green new hydrogen business, Geo thermal heating, Digital farming. Been a bumpy ride, held what I bought which is again in profit - to catch up to peers it 10 bags.
KRS another I am still adding to on each dip, phosphates in world structural deficit which with the planned rising world population puts the writing on the wall, mine life of 60 years, economics proved it up over 10 years, Directors own 27% - no brainer as they cant make more of the stuff, Chinas banned exports as wants it for it own people.Price under placing of 0.12. - buy under that and wait for the market to hear the first sale news and multibag it - people say anywhere between 3 - 16 bags depending whose ramping it, warrants in at 0.18 will blow through them due to deficit of product, the funds from warrants then pays for the forthcoming mine in Togo if the Togo Govt keeps to its word, either way the USA located Diamond Creek phosphate mine still multibags it without Togo.
FDBK is of interest NHS banning pagers by December, may pay for Bleepa instead ?
LND finally waking up Eric Sprott said he was buying into it for the gold in ground value, drill it and sell it, think things are happening there now, in from 2p which became 20p on a consolidation 23/34p looks a safe place to buy ?.
Bids cut and run for the time being etc.
casp - holding has yet another shot at a deep, shallows looking better, with oil recovery looking good.
UOG - Directors overpay themselves and that looks to be the worst of it
Copl - derisked position as no numbers forth coming from Art, always slow with info and paperwork, takes everything to the wire with a JIT policy it
Hi DM, I have watched the shares that CC has mentioned on this board and he certainly has a very good record of selecting winners.
I made a decision a little while ago to put all my eggs in this basket. Prior to that I had what I called a portfolio of uncertainty, selecting sharres that were suddenly performing badly but which had enormous potential. I mitigated my risk by doing a lot of background research into both the company and the market.
This is of course contrary to all advice and conventional wisdom, but then I have generally done well by going against the prevailing view. Previously I was in CEY, POG KAZ and ARM. I tend to concentrate on primary production because it is easier to simulate. I cut my investment down to this one share because I was spending too much time on my poprtfolio and had other much more important things to get on with in my life.
I have stopped trading for two reasons. Firstly I found I wasn't very good at it, and secondly I found that it didn't make me happy. I buy and hold and then judge the best exit. Sometimes that means that i have to take large short term losses but it works for me.
My exit point for CASP is probably 2023, but I may sell a few meanwhile to finance travel or projeccts on the house. I will let you know what I intend to invest in next when that time comes, but it will probably be in renewables.
I shall probably ask CC for his advice at that point because of his knowledge in that sector, and his track record of picking winners. Of course i will then do my own in depth research.
UNC are you into anything else (I dont mean S+M/Dressing up etc) I had a few good tips off CC and made quite a few quid (Commission in the post CC) DYOR as some of his tips are carp, but others 25%-40% in a few weeks I will take all day every day ....... thanks CC
Only slippery when it comes to word play CC, which I was sure you would understand.
Like DM I have no agenda other than to put forward my honest beliefs and analysis of what is going on with CASP and to benefit from the same from others on this board. After a long period of being unsure, I even trust you now CC!
Watch him Muff hes being slippery and in your game one slip and you're in the ...
A misunderstanding DM, the suspicions I had were with the accuracy of the LSE reporting of trades, not with you! Unlike CC I didn't think you were a cunning linguist.
I share your view that CASP is on the up, but we don't exactly when, but probably before Xmas IMO
Hi CC, yep, got no agenda, just want everyone here to do well, I guessed this is going to go places next week ..... or the week after ...... or maybe next month ..... Ok Ok after the winter shutdown, so I bought a few more today 8-))
To be fair Muff plays it straight...
You can't believe anything you read these days!
I did notice your earlier post saying you had bought today but could only find one purchase of 123 shares, so I did have my suspicions!
Unc, loads of those "Sells"! are my Buys
25000 @ 4.115 / 4.01p max sell 50000
True market 4.01-4.115
K.K .
Whats the biggest buy trade you're being quoted?
Un, everything above 4p is a buy. I tested with a little buy and impossible to buy stock online. The 4.035/4.045/4.115 all buys.
Strange market today. Virtually all sales (unless one of you knows different) but the price is now going back up. Next week should be very interesting. 6p by the end of the week? Is that rampy enough or am I being overcautious again?
Can sell 100k @ 4.01 and can't buy any online. Playing games ready for next week news.
153 result upon us, barge rental ? i think that's close, A8 updates a couple more before perforating new intervals ? 3AB , more shallows and the star of 802, Market has got this wrong, big style.
4-4.035p, that's what you call a skinny market...lol No real volume available either side.
Time for news to do the talking. Poor 153 and sp retraces to early 3.4/3.5p range before bouncing as peeps realise that SY and more shallows to follow, possibly A8 positives? the barge etc ?. Way i look at it 20% decline BUT it will bounce immediately and i'll be loading up. Sold all the RDSB stock today, just waiting for a new home.
I don't think the market likes the dodgy A8 Well commentary - will continue drilling for now : - (
I'm hoping if the Primary Target starts at 5100m (200m gross oil column) we can pierce the top part of it and test it from thereabouts.
Market wants wants to know whats at the bottom of the Well.
Not a poxy 90 meters plus from four intervals. lol!
4p now.
Should I or shouldn't I hmmm........