Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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To help matters 101 has popped out if his room lol.
£1 again - but no financials, or hard data, and no wish to challenge any of the points I've raised.
The SP could go to £1 everything is possible. But that will rely very heavily on the belief that the exit of Invesco, will have maximum spring board effect for CARD.
With the SP sitting at the 80's pre Covid19 £1 represents a major uptick. What in the latest the rns and first 4 months trading this year suggests CARD is in a better financial position now or indeed in 3/4 months time than it was pre Covid19.
101 may be right he may get his price, but 101 what is fair value is up for debate. That's the fun if these bb's
A blue day on Monday and 101 will be out of his room again singing to the rafters. However for those holding here. Remember this weekends debate when the interims are published some time later this year.
Looks like a even minded guy looking at past trading data, and medium term forward revenues based on stores gradually re opening, is on a different page to short term day traders looking for a quick return.
In truth we could both be right at some stage.
G
Question to genuine LTH's - did anyone buy in based on LC's Nov 19 share forecast of £1.70.
How are you feeling about their previous recommendation ?
Wonder what info and data they used to base their call. Or did they pluck a figure out of thin air !
Still their past dismal forecasting - some might say guessing, is no reason to believe we won't get a different outcome this time round.
Wasn't that what General ( butcher ) Haigh thought each time he sent the troops over the top in the 1 at World War ?
Monday could be a good trading day - futures are looking good ATM, cyclicals are showing the highest up ticks, over recent weeks. Sentiment is high, CARD could do as well as any. Who am I to say - I keep getting away with day punts on TLW - I'm bounce to catch a crab soon though lol.
You pays your money .....
G
Coronavirus: Oxford scientists working on COVID-19 vaccine 'near breakthrough' on antibody treatment
Good luck anyone shorting this....
Liberum Capital 100p broker update 2nd June.
So we all agree this is going higher short term.
Ammu123 - a little more on Liberum Capital and it's dismal performance on calling the CARD so over recent yrs.
LC have had previous forecasts of £3.45 & £2.75, though there may well have been shares is issue during those predictions.
In April 18 LC dropped its forecast on CARD from £2.10 - £1.95
Then in Nov 19 they had it as a hold at £1.70 despite their enthusiasm Invesco commenced it's exit plan on the 17th Dec, following the Tory election bounce.
Two months later in Jan the shares were selling at sub 90p.
Where did LC get it's info and data for a hold recommendation at £1.70 in Nov. Anyone who bought in at the time of their update, would have paid £1.55 per share. If you'd gambled say £10k on LC's forecast, you'd have only £3225 of your investment left today.
I got to say they've not been very good at this predicting lark, in the past have they?
But hey ho whilst Invesco have jumped ship LC now pumps for a BUY rating and a forecast if £1. To be honest under the law of averages they will guess it right some day. Remember though, some who listened to them in the past may not have the same faith in them that you do my friend.
G
Coronavirus: Oxford scientists working on COVID-19 vaccine 'near breakthrough' on antibody treatment
Good luck anyone shorting this....
Liberum Capital 100p broker update 2nd June.
So we all agree this is going higher short term.
Ammu123 - yes we all want progress on antibody tests, and a decent Govt co ordinated response to dealing with the virus. But it's entirely possible each and every one of us is facing one if two V's - the virus or a vaccine.
Both you and Icartz have had 3 hours to answer any of the questions I posed. You either can't because you haven't researched fully or won't because you have !
It's not a problem to me if you just say you are in here looking for a quick bounce on " the seller being out" or the broker rating, that's fine and why not. It's possible you could pick up a further short term bounce. Many probably have the same plan and you could do well.
But avoiding my questions on the rns and finances, may lead me to have no option put you in with 101 in his little room.
G
Coronavirus: Oxford scientists working on COVID-19 vaccine 'near breakthrough' on antibody treatment
Good luck anyone shorting this....
Liberum Capital 100p broker update 2nd June.
So we all agree this is going higher short term.
Ammu / Icartz - agree sentiment could send the so north in the short term.
In the short term Revenue holes, and increasing debts with the detrimental effect on the balance sheet can be glossed over. But when do you both believe they will impact, perhaps when any interims are published or even CARD confirms it has commenced utilising the CCFF.
Of course neither of those two issues will effect the short term traders, but they should concern the LTH's.
Icartz - your short term prediction of £1.00 values the company at £342 m - I'm not saying you won't get your price. But in the short term, that figure will not be based on fundamental trading performance. In truth there is unlikely to be meaningful data for some months. It will be on sentiment. It could be there will be many traders pulling a profit next week but to do so they will have to off load their shares onto someone else.
But that's trading for you, makes for fun bb's. Will pop out for a bike ride and look in later.
G
Yeah can see 70p short term....
Monday should be exciting since seller gone now.
Surely the seller being out will make the SP rise this coming week and could test 60p at the least. It was 56p last week.
Short term target is £1 so can see this realistically head upwards
Ammu - I agree it's hugely frustrating when legitimate posted questions are brushed aside, why is that do you feel ?
I've been a regular Card Factory in store shopper over the years, and it's customers like me that CARD will need in order to recover.
The seller is out and the buyer is in - hopefully Which should be evens on the sp.
70p a share gives CARD a mcap of £239.4 m with a balance sheet NAV of £221.5 m ( allowing full balance sheet value for the intangible assets in the books at £319.8 m ).Those are post lock down figures.
Often Co's have mcap' s over the value of balance sheet assets and you'll note I've not posted a SP prediction, I'm only focussing on the fundamentals.
You mention the warehouse and how busy it is and I provide you with the Co's monthly online income based on YR20 annual figures X3 divided by 12. Do you dispute them - please a simple yes or no - if no perhaps you'd provide your figures.
I asked you how much you believe the bank debt has risen from the £147.6m level in Jan,in the last 4 months ? Is it on an upwards trend or a downwards trend in your opinion ? A simple up or down will suffice.
I don't have a strategy, my friend I'm merely asking questions, but finding limited success in dragging out cogent replies.
Stores are shortly to re open on a phased basis which is positive. We need to avoid any bumps in the road in expanding the store openings.
Why do you feel it unreasonable to ask what you see as minimum total monthly revenue from all sources to achieve a cashflow break even position ? Surely all LTH's will be considering that figure ? Perhaps it's not important to traders, who'll merely be looking for a quick return before finding someone who they can move their shares onto. That's the key in trading shares is it not ?
G
Gerry,
copy pasting the same post and it’s getting a bit boring now.
You’ve made the point and now best to move on?
Why it would move into 70’s. One of the biggest reason is our biggest seller is out.
Secondly, cards has started opening stores in the a phased manner which I agree with.
Have you been to Wakefield warehouse ? Do you know how busy it is ???
They have never been busier and still recruiting fulfilment jobs.
Pfg move after investco selling out and I am sure this will to.
Good luck with your strategy!
Ammu123 - Agree the shares should hopefully been moved to another Institution. If that was the case it would have had limited effect on holding back the sp, as some have suggested. With an TR 1 pi's will have a clearer picture.
Sentiment could take the sp anywhere, in these strange times, whilst we have limited fundamental trading data, to go on Since the Finals. Why would sentiment take the sp, back up to 80p when the sp was trading at 75 p at the end of Feb. Prior to lock down.
Do you have a break down of monthly fixed costs, and the impact on the bank debt ?
The bank debt was £147.6m in Jan, how close to the RCF ceiling do you think it is now ?
What overall level of future monthly revenues, from all sources do you feel will produce a break even cashflow position, factoring in the HMRC rate savings, and div savings, but with stores re opening and both revenues and variable costs returning ?
We have a Card Factory shop on our high street, which I've used regularly, and I'd like to do so again. I hope CARD can get back up and running with or without access to the CCFF. much depends on any second or third wave.
In my mind, its recovery will lean very heavily on the RCF and CCFF, I'd suspect its balance sheet will look less attractive in 12 months time. Generally investors pick shares for income or growth. I don't see CARD being a Div / income stock for a couple years, as it will need to work on reducing debt, to strengthen its balance sheet. BTW what value those intangibles ?
Is it now a growth stock, to some I guess it is, but is this based on fundamentals or sentiment. I'd say its got good trading potential, in these volatile times.
G
Business report in the Daily Torygraph today - govt getting worried by all the after hours trading between IIs and BODs which cut out the private investor and manipulate the SP. We are being held at the mo around 50p - until the dam breaks we will not see a steady reliable rise in our SP.
Further to the "dark plot" of no Q report I can suggest that due to lockdown the independent auditors could not peruse the Prime Books of Account for CARD and rhousands of other smal and large companies so we may get the half year report or that may also be delayed ! No secret squirell plots here IMO
Regards all
PS - why do the travel firms not organise old people only flights to sunny holiday destinations - my wife and I have been in isolation for 10 weeks now with no end in sight and would be happy to fly to the sun and to have 14 days lockdown on return
Yes seller out and we should get RNS on new holder.
Should be trading between 70-80 before the next update
Like all of the retail sector CARD need to re open their store doors and try to get footfall moving.
The grim Jan trading update resulted in the sp dropping from £1.40 -90p, and it did not recover prior to Covid19. It convinced Invesco to exit. Surely their stake holding has been picked up by another Institution, and should not have had any material effect on holding back the sp. So we should see a TR1 soon to confirm this. The alternative is that Invesco many to dump its shares onto pi's, which is surely unlikely
Online sales ( not profits ) are reported to be up 3x since lock down = £5m pm. Store revenues down circa £70m in the same period, with variable store costs also down in the same period.
I see a post stating all salary costs are being covered by the Govt. its actually 90% of store staff. not warehouse staff and those working from home etc.
The bank debt under the RCF stood at £147.6m back in Jan. Expect this to be moving close to the RCF ceiling of £200m by now. As though variable costs can be managed fixed costs need to be paid. There is the CCFF, but this comes with its own issues and conditions.
Does anyone wish to break down the lease costs on a monthly basis on the 1000 + stores and warehousing.
CARD needs to get those stores re opening and pray we have no second and third wave, and start to get some measure of footfall into the stores. I suspect we will now need to sit on our hands until the autumn / winter for any relevant trading update, when CARD will hopefully show how they have managed to absorb the 6.2% increase in monthly store wages following the increase in the Living Wage from this April.
G
Is there a list of shops been published for the first to open.