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''but 20p is even better.''
yes it was - now up 40% from the low of 2 days ago
Like most I am shocked at the sp post-Ukraine invasion - I thought 30p was a great buy but 20p is even better. Still can't see any material change to Car's future prospects (and thus, won't be selling) given that factories are still running 24/7 (bar the effects of rising inflation on costs & wages)...and even though free covid testing ends in UK at the end of March there are still many parts of the world (ie. Latin America & Asia) where lfts will continue to be in huge demand for some time. Whilst Ukraine is consuming everything in the news a disaster is unfolding in Hong Kong. Exports to China? Let's hope so as their home-grown vaccine shows no affect on Omicron and their zero-covid policy is starting to unravel. That may be natural justice to some but there still remains huge demand worldwide for medical plastics due to the backlogs caused by covid. Just my view but there are big rewards for those who keep the faith in the medium/long term.
I don’t want to get into a long conversation about it but a pension deficit is NOT debt. It is a far longer term liability, managed by trustees who can act with considerable flexibility, and generally understand the need to maintain a healthy business to protect future contributions. Carclo appears to have a supportive relationship with the trustees. So if the assertion is that the pension deficit should be added to the EV in the same way net debt is, that is a rather subjective assessment, and not one that all educated investors will agree with.
Since I have to post to correct my self I will elaborate:
I meant Ev/Ebit for hays of 8 not PE. If you consider that is close to Carclo, especially if the CAR sp recovers a few points then what is the difference?
Hays have net cash of 200M, are buying back shares, and promising to pay around £100M in a special dividend (that is over 5% yield at todays SP). Those are the extras you get somewhere else at the same valuation metric, so does make CAR look expensive. Would look even worse if you pick a super small cap, or O&G company, I just used Hays because it is average.
Im holding CAR but better places to put your cash IMO.
@Jolly, Well done on calling the price 25p. I calculated the EV/Ebit around 7 now - that was last night so could be a little lower, but yes when you look at other companies with similar numbers, they don't then have the debt. I couldn't put more money here, when there are I3E, even companies like Hays with shed loads of cash and a PE of 8 or 9 look a little better. I was checking out BILN last night (where you were posting), but may have got back to fair price.
Carclo is an ok investment, but fact is there are just better out there. I am still invested here, see no point selling at a big loss. But wont be averaging down until this starts to turn or can be valued on new metrics.
I think its the same old boring and painful cycle of small caps always taking the biggest hit as we enter a bear market. I am still currently a holder......but have lost most of the profit I made on the way up......I don't need to sell.......but my past experience has been that these can go much lower......even though the company has positive news. Its all to do with market sentiment......and the general trend. Almost all shares are down at the moment....and it could get a lot worse......and for some long period of time!
cos it still isn't cheap on ev/ebit rel to comps imv
It's an odd one for such a big drop!
Dunno, maybe just a panic market reaction to the end of the COVID plastic boom. Hmmm?
Hi larrs,
There are a few interesting post over on ADVFN.
I get the feeling that investors believe it's current market sentiment with folks who got involved very early in this recovery, when the share was 5p ish , locking in any profits.
Like some others, I believe we will bounce back as we get closer to, and when the results are posted but as we all know the share is not without its risks. Jmo
Why is this flying down? Also why is no one talking about it here....?
Thanks Steel, 24/7 working at the factory is a good sign. So is the sp support at 31p. If we can wait out the situation with world markets we should, hopefully, be rewarded with a fully charged and recovering manufacturing company with excellent future prospects.
A lot of the smaller companies are down significantly recently. Having reviewed 2 other companies last night, I increased my holdings on those companies. One company (SRC) stated revenue 107% increase from last year, and still trades 25% below recent price. I therefore think that part of this drop is a correction of sorts, which is affecting all small cap equities currently. However the good ones will bounce back, and I expect Carclo to be one of those. The lack of any update prevented me from adding more here, in contrast to SRC for example with far more recent good news.
There is also the possibility that this has been shorted, but the the borrowed stock was under 0.5% so not declared. The post by Rivaldo, could be answered that it was shorting? Very easy to drive this type of low liquidity stock down, and it may also have happened last time it touched 30p, then swiftly rebounded?
Not worried here, very tempted to buy, but own rules prevent more here currently.
Had a site visit late last night, full night shift working. Plenty of cars in the car park.
All very positive.
much better to work with EV and EBIT
tp 25p
Interesting move up today, with 300,000 shares traded already on an otherwise quiet Friday morning.
Would buy but for the spread, always seems to bounce back. but buy is 31.67 a 5% rise would still be selling at a loss!
Mcap £23M
Est 2022 EBITDA £13M
Doesn't look excessive to me....
so how does this justify high rating??
Hi Steelwatch,
Would be nice to see t/o up to £130m+. My own assumptions are a bit lower but still good especially with all that's going on in this complicated world. I can see the £130m especially if the framework contract is going well. We should also see further progress on the pension and borrowing side of things.
My estimate FY22 (assuming no surprises) for UOP is £7.5m to £8m and Underlying EBITDA of £13.7 to £14m.
Finally, I doubt we will have a trading update until after year end. Probably early April. Though, didn't we already have one I in disguise when our CFO added to his shareholding.
My opinion only.
I am not expecting a trading update any time soon. Year end is 31st March, Last year the update was after YE, on the 27th April.
I think this will start to build up in price now, making steady highs until the update. We might get to 45p on no news at all.
If things are going as well as hoped, then the update could launch us to Peel Hunts estimate of around 60p from memory.
The Peel Hunt estimate is discussed on the other board site, if you dig back a bit.
From the interim results :-
"Nevertheless, the Board currently anticipates full year underlying trading will be slightly ahead of expectations, with the one-off benefits of the Covid-related grant income and contribution from discontinued operations incremental to this."
I am still thinking that turnover could reach the 130m+ for this year, with an increase to 140 m + next, given continued fair trading conditions.
A nice and steady recovery being made, director buys are a great confimation of this.
2 - 3 weeks would seem appropriate in this instance, ( share buy pre a general trading update).
Given that they have alteady RNS'd that they are ahead of expextations.
So any time in the next week or 2 would be ok for an update.
Directors can only buy at a distance from any price sensitive news.
Was hoping to get some around the 32p mark, but bought at 35p today. I wonder if any more director buys may crop up?