The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Says on website mid Oct.
It would have been nice to have a trading statement at or before the AGM.
Tomorrow I guess!!!
Schroders comes to the rescue again....
I guess that the electricity price is the worry here. Although it’s worth tempering that Carclo have factories in other countries too.
Beta
More downward drift. We may need our tin hats over the next couple of days……
Let’s hope we are getting something positive with the AGM/trading announcement.
The company has a lot of potential that is definitely not reflected in the share price.
Did anybody notice the 170 000 share sale (I assume but can’t say for certain) reported after hours. A little unsettling so close to the AGM.
I’ve noticed that the forecast 2024 eps has been downgraded slightly. It was showing 5p per share (house broker forecasts I assume) but it is now been revised to 4.86p/ share.
Well this time around the banking agreement isn't as critical as a few years ago.
Might have been an opportunity to say hello and were doing ok etc.
We should see a good rise in net profit next time as the price increases will be feeding through. I though it was unlucky for the company that these issues came around at this moment in its recovery. What will also help is the reduction in raw material stocks as the supply chain problems ease. Please with the £13m ebitda though...jmo
Good spot Frank and thanks for the info. It’s gone very quiet here. A lot of shares appear to be treading water at the moment. Next key date here is 1st September so not long to wait.
Hi Beza,
New banking arrangements expected to be finalised by July 31 22. As per annual report.
Frank, what makes you say that?
Anybody expecting an RNS tomorrow?
Stockopedia
"It’s interesting to see that Carclo’s 2022 results and forecasts have been updated. " Where did you read that please?
It’s interesting to see that Carclo’s 2022 results and forecasts have been updated. For 2023 they (the house broker I presume) are forecasting a slight drop in revenue to £123M, a drop in profit to 2.5£M and a slight fall in eps to 2.5. In 2024 the figures are £133M revenue, £3.9M profit and eps of 5.3, which is a jump of 55.9% over the 2023 eps forecast.
Very interesting Wigwammer. Not being an accountant myself I’ll go away and try and get my head around the figures. Great to hear another accountants take on things. Speaking of figures have you looked at Bisichi (BISI) Mining? In short it’s a coal miner that needs coal to sell at about $110/ tonne to be in the black (pardon the pun). For the last few years that’s about all it’s been but Putins antics have resulted in RB coal prices moving to over $200. The west are currently scrambling to buy coal. Regards
It’s a poor piece of research beza, IMO... 1) they are too pessimistic about dividend reinstatement because they assume the actuarial deficit and related payments are fixed ad infinitum, when in fact they are reviewed every 3 years. The level of actuarial liabilities are highly sensitive to the discount rate - the IAS liabilities sensitivity for example is 16% for every 1% move in the discount rate. Using March 2021 data, the prelim actuarial assessment estimated the liabilities at around £250m, but since then the discount rate has moved from 2%, to around 4%. Taken on it own this would suggest a circa 30% or £75m reduction in the liability, nearly the entire actuarial deficit. A materially lower deficit would likely mean materially lower pension payments. Of course, this will likely not help much with the payments review to be completed in July, but does suggest that dividend payments may be reinstated long before the “decade” that small caps life believe is a clear inevitability.. 2) small caps life are wrong to state that using a PE is inappropriate for an indebted company. The EPS used in the PE calculation is AFTER interest paid, meaning the measure does adjust for interest paid and consequently the scale of debt… 3) small caps life have miscalculated their earnings yield. They state that even assuming 30% EPS growth gets them to a 3.8% earnings yield for next year. In fact, the reported underlying EPS from the year just reported was 3.1p, and adding 30% gets you to 4p. At a share price of 22p, this results in an earnings yield of 18.1%, far higher than the 3.8% small caps life state… in short, be careful taking anything small caps life tell you at face value, sounds like poor quality stuff.. ATB
What do you accountancy guys think of Carclo’s prospects after the results on Thursday? I’m a holder here. I’ve read an article on “Small cap life”, I think the author is a Mark Simpson. He puts the company on an enterprise value of 53p/share but then proceeds to say that the pension obligations will take up all of Carclo’s free cash flow for the next ten years making the reinstatement of a divi unlikely because the trustees will not allow it.
Market is unimpressed by anything just now. Not particularly a CAR problem, it is more or less everywhere a shortage of buyers Vs sellers.
Yes very good news. I particularly liked under Strategy: "In the short-term, the focus remains to grow organically in each of its existing markets, but in the medium to long-term this may be supplemented by accretive and synergistic acquisitions."
I've not come across 'accretive' before. Accretive: Characterized by gradual growth or increase.
I'm looking forward to an announcement shortly after 31 July 2022 about the agreement with the banks and Pension Trustees.
Happy with that - better than I'd expected given what we already knew about global supply issues and inflation in H2.
3.1p underlying EPS is very acceptable and a good base going forward given the new contracts being won and implemented in TP and the recovery in Aerospace.
Good to see $2.75m coming into the Group post balance sheet date due to a sale and leaseback of the Tucson TP site.
Also to note that the pension contributions have now peaked and will fall this year and next to stabilise at £3.5m. Great to see the IAS19 pension deficit fall by a third in just one year.
I can't decide whether to roll the dice and put another 5k shares in the pot lol - either way sure i will make wrong decision
Finally !!!!!!!!!!!
It won’t be pretty at the moment but as a long term share holder I want to know what the next 18 months holds .
Wonder what's happening? Normally we would have a notice of results by now and then actual results by end of June?
https://inews.co.uk/news/science/uk-covid-rates-weekend-cases-rise-omicron-zoe-app-1697797