The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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NextGen Nordics 2024: 40+ banks registered to attend
01 March 2024
NextGen Nordics returns to Stockholm on 23rd April, and at seven weeks away from the event day, 200 attendees have already registered.
Among the registrants are a number of representatives from different banks. Included in that are several central banks, such as Bank of England, Central Bank of Iceland, Riksbanken, and Banco Nacional de Angola.
Other banks attending include Afreximbank, Ålandsbanken Abp, Ålandsbanken, Bank Norwegian, Bank of Åland, Bank of America, Bankgirot, Bluestep Bank, BNP Paribas, Citi, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole Egypt, Crown Agents Bank (£CABP), Dahabshil Banking International, Danske Bank, Doha Bank, Handelsbanken, HSBC, Ikano Bank, JP Morgan, Landshypotek Bank, Länsförsäkringar Bank, LF Bank, NOBA Bank Group, Nordea, Nordnet Bank, SEB, Skandia, Sparbanken Syd, Standard Chartered Bank, Sveriges Riksbank, Swedbank, TD Bank, Union Trust Bank, and United Overseas Bank.
A number of notable non-banks have registered including BIS, Bottomline, Getswish, Elavon Klarna Bank, Terrapay, Transfergo, TSYS, Januar, Nordic Payments Council, and Yapily
Our sponsors and exhibitors will also be in attendance, including our lead sponsors Visa and Banfico, as well as Intix, LexisNexis Risk Solutions, NICE Actimize, PPI, Mastercard, Swift, FIS, Tietoevry Banking, and Worldline, and of course, exhibitors Neterium, Crosskey and StoneX.
https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/43787/nextgen-nordics-2024-40-banks-registered-to-attend
Does anyone else believe that the share price is not acting quite as you would expect on the run up to the results out next week? I can understand that it has been subdued while the 5% holding was being acquired by Working Capital Advisors. I can only assume that they may be contiuing to build their holding this week.
Good luck all.
Quite intriguing to see how they have managed to hoover up more than 5% of the company on the cheap. Guess those £1m buys in the last few weeks must be them. They have been working this price level for several weeks now.
WCA have spent best part of probably £10m+ to acquire this stake. Coincidentally they would have had to spend nearly £45m to buy the same no of shares just 9 months ago at IPO.
Back to IPO levels, and this investment firm is making a brilliant return 🤑
That's another ~13m shares gone from the free flaot. That's nearly 70% of the company held by the BOD and top 5 Institutions, if the smaller ones are included it probably comes to 80-90%. Shares floating around are non existent, perfect storm brewing for an almighty rerate back to a respected level.
RNS Announcement Friday just before close will have caught most out, next week will be interesting once this news is registered...If ever there was a better vote of confidence! Will they continue buying. Wonder who else has been buying, the gap to anywhere near fair value is simply massive. CABP hardly on any PI's radar, but best multibagger opportunity on the LSE Premium Market in the next 12-18months.
Just the 1 week left now, 🤞 all the shenanigans can end.
DYOR
What is the great news. Not seen anything?
My understanding is that a US banking license can't be issued if any one party controls more than 25% of the shares. That's why CABP can't be private, and why people believe that Helios will be reducing their 45% ownership to 25% this year.
However, it's likely that Helios assumed they would be able to dispose of that 20% at near/above the IPO price. That's clearly not going to happen without some major shareholder returns first, which of course is unlikely without the US baking license. So a catch 22 situation.
Now, from a Helios point of view there's a few possible plays from here:
1. Declare a special dividend, big up 2024 prospects and get the share price up to £1.80 or so. Sell the 20% for less than Helios wanted but it's better than nothing. Then CABP go full steam ahead on the US license. The cash starts flowing in, and the share price heads north of £5 by 2025/2026 ready for Helios' exit plan.
2. Build the share price back up through dividends, new customers, expansion into new markets i.e. grow through traditional methods. Once the share price is back up to £3+, Helios reduce their holdings and CABP goes ahead with US banking licence. This all takes time and outcomes are not guaranteed however before the 2025/2026 exit.
3. Helios finds a wealthy external organisation that really values the services CABP can provide to them i.e. another bank such as Santander, and they buy the 20% at a figure somewhat closer to the £3. Helios would have to offer them something in return to justify paying over the odds, but it's doable. Just like Option #1, the US license goes ahead and share price climbs ready for full exit.
4. Pivot, scrap the US banking license plan and take the company private again. Helios would then "just" be getting the returns they had previously and they would have all that IPO money so wouldn't have done too badly out of things really. However, to do that CABP would basically be throwing away their entire strategy, which would mean the CEO's position would be untenable. They'd have to fire him and replace him with somebody new for sure...oh wait... Another thing they'd have to do would be get over 50% of shareholders to back the de-listing, so they'd need somebody with at least 5% of shares to add to their 45%...oh wait...The question of how to then exit in 2025/2026 is tricky, but a full sale to another PE or to another bank would be a possibility.
My belief up to now was that Option #1 was the most probable outcome to recover from here.
However, I'm starting to think Option #4 might be looking like a very attractive Plan B to Helios right about now. The slightly reassuring thing is that CABP were FTSE 100 and I think all parties have aspirations to return. Option #4 is the sort of thing you'd see on an AIM stock not FTSE 100, and investors have long memories if they get burned, so this would be a risky move if CABP and Helios want to return to the big leagues in the future.
It's squeaky bum time f
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if it goes private wouldn't that put a stop at the plans of becoming a clearing house in the US?
I also don't think it can be taken over unless someone offers well above £3 (probably ~ £5). The current valuation is joke and Helios won't accept anything that will undervalue the company.
Great news!
Both individuals of Working Capital Advisors are from Singapore 🤔
CABP better not be taken over!!
Been saying for a while, it is a Cash Cow.
5%+ free float gone just like that. Last few weeks just been a simple transfer from impatient holders to these big boys.
That's a nice percentage, hopefully they are in the know lol
As suspected someone has been quietly building a sizeable position
Another 5% of free float gone
Could get very interesting 🚀
A good time to top up now CAB is in its closed period and those with insider information are not allowed to trade. Should see a significant re rating end of the month.
Summary
- CAB Payments is undervalued and trading at a PE of 5 after its recent 72% price decline.
- The company has experienced rapid growth - 79% per year from 2020-2022 and 25% in 2023.
- Their scalable, transparent, and cost effective products have a customer retention rate of 96% and net revenue retention of 150%.
- CAB (Crown Agents Bank) Payments (OTCPK:CABPF) is an undervalued (P/E of 5), rapidly growing (25% YoY), and out of favor (down 72%) global money transfer business hiding within a 191-year-old UK bank.
- Bhairav is one of multiple high profile, and experienced leaders brought in to lead CAB. A few of the others are: Ann Cairns (Chair), Richard Hallett ('CFO'), Joseph Hurley ('CCO'), David Mountain ('CPO'), David Parker ('CIO'), Richo Strydom ('CTO'), Noel Harweth (Director). If these names don’t mean anything to you maybe some of the team’s experiences do: President of international markets at Mastercard, Global Treasurer at Citigroup, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, Chairman of Deutsche Bank, Director at National Australia Bank, CEO of Travelodge, CFO of Barclays Africa and senior roles at institutions like RBS, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, United Nations Migration Agency, and Discover Financial.
- THE EXPERIENCE, NETWORK AND KNOWLEDGE OF THIS BOARD AND EXECUTIVE TEAM IS MORE IN-KIND TO A $100 BILLION DOLLAR LARGE CAP THAN A $250 MILLION DOLLAR MICRO-CAP
- CAB’s management team is aligned with shareholders as they IPO’d with a clean balance sheet, outside of a 7% minority interest
- CAB’s payment and FX products have multiple advantages over the incumbent correspondence banking system that accounts for 80-85% of the cross-border payments occurring today. CAB products are scalable, transparent, fast, and cost less
- If CAB’s product has a durable advantage, they are operating in a market estimated to be $56 - $271 trillion dollars and expanding at 7.3% per year. CABs advantage lies in emerging markets, which has a market size of $2 trillion and CAB’s current market share is estimated to be only 1-2%.
- The current valuation appears low and I expect CAB to re-rate higher if they continue to execute and diversify their geopolitical risk. To put their current price into perspective, it is 1/2 the valuation of regional banks (P/E 10), and 1/8 of their fintech payments brethren Wise (P/E of 45) and Shift4 Payments (P/E of 50). Flywire (FLYW) which is not perfect, but a business to business comparison has an expected 2024 P/E ratio of 123
- How long can CAB continue to hold a P/E of 4-5 when their peers are valued 2-24x more. If the re-rating does not occur through investor demand, CAB could buy back their own shares as they are estimated to cash flow more than £50M in 2024 while growing revenue 20-35%.
Look forward to share buybacks, with the tight free float, low liquidity, should get very interesting 📈
7 days remain, tick tock...
We're thrilled to have been shortlisted for the Technology Innovation of the Year category at the Professional Pensions Awards.
Congratulations to our pensions team and this year's finalists. We've got our fingers crossed! 🤞
You can find the full shortlist here: https://lnkd.in/euPUJ4u2
#TeamCAB #Shortlisted
After today just 9 trading days remain 😉....
Listening to a Robert Peston podcast this morning talking about the LSE being massively undervalued due to major structural issue I.e. Institutional holders have moved away from UK companies. CABP is a prime example of significantly undervalued companies on every single metric, if in the US, CABP would be worth billions.....
Premium Listed Company ✅️
UK Banking License ✅️
Significant Growth - 25% in 2023 ✅️
A Truly World Class Management Team ✅️
Recently quoted they have the knowledge expertise and skills to be running a $100 Billion company ✅️
Profitable ✅️
Huge FCF Positive - £37.9m in H123 ✅️
Consensus FCF est: 2024 - £73m/2025 - £106m
Cash - Should have £140m+ by end of 2024 ✅️
Clean balance sheet after IPO ✅️
Significant growth potential - 2 Licenses pending anytime ✅️, currently have just 1-2% of the total market ✅️
Types of Customers - High quality and growing customer base, made up of G10 government entities, some of the world's best known international development organisations, global remittance companies, emerging markets financial institutions and, increasingly, major market banks ✅️
Territories - Operate in 150 different countries ✅️
Significant Blue Chip Customers - 74 New customers between Q1-Q3 in 2023. Eg New clients in several regions, including Santander Group/PagoNxt. Signing client agreements with the three largest exchange houses in the United Arab Emirates etc ✅️
Super High EBITDA Margin - 57% in H123, is this one of the highest on FTSE ✅️
Recurring revenue - 96% 3 year retention ✅️
ULTRA low P/E - Less than 4x for 2024 ✅️
2024 EV/EBITDA Est - Totally disconnected to Fair Value - Current Market Cap £250m, Debt N/A, Cash £140m, EBITDA £83m = 1.32x 🤯 Yes 1.32, it's totally mind blowing ✅️
IMO Dividends/Share buybacks will come in 2024, then it's a full house, there will be no stopping ✅️
We kind of know 2023 results, more interested in 2024 guidance. Maybe also get Q1 trading update next month. With the expansion, new clients onboarded, 2024> could look spectacular. H1 23 growth was 94%, with a reset in H2 and new licenses granted, structural shift to specialist providers like CABP, and like they said expansion in US and Eurupe, growth in the next 12-18months could be phenomenal.
DYOR
10 more working days until CAB Results.
I'm predicting an average price increase per day so 115p by 26/03/24. IMO - DYOR etc.
Https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/nigeria-sees-surge-forex-inflow-overseas-remittances-rise-2024-03-08/
ABUJA, March 8 (Reuters) - Foreign exchange inflows to Nigeria rose to $2.3 billion in February, the central bank said on Friday, fuelled by renewed interest from foreign investors and a rise in overseas remittances.
Africa's largest economy has been experiencing crippling dollar shortages that have pushed its naira currency to record lows in recent weeks and forced the central bank to devalue the naira twice in less than a year.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) spokesperson Hakama Sidi Ali said foreign investors bought at least $1 billion of Nigerian assets last month, bringing total receipts of portfolio inflows to $2.3 billion. That compares with $3.9 billion for the whole of 2023.
CBN data also showed overseas remittances more than quadrupled to $1.3 billion in February, compared with $300 million a month earlier, Sidi Ali said in a statement.
"All the different measures we have taken to boost reserves and create more liquidity in the markets have started to pay off," CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso said in the statement.
The CBN's series of measures to boost forex liquidity include limiting how much banks can hold in foreign currency, capping their net open positions at 20% of shareholders' funds, and outlawing street-trading of foreign currency.
Higher forex inflows have continued in March, Sidi Ali said, driven by increased investor interest in short-term sovereign debt after the CBN hiked its key interest rate by 4 percentage points to 22.75%, the highest in around 17 years to tame soaring inflation.
At the CBN's Open Market Operation auction on March 6 when it sold securities worth 1.053 trillion naira, bids from foreign investors accounted for 79% of the total, or $530 million, Sidi Ali said.
Reporting by Elisha Bala-Gbogbo; Editing by Leslie Adler
Looks like a rectangular bull flag forming on the 5d
The smaller free float moves the shareprice faster
A strange day at the office all round! 450k of sells to 150k of buys with the share price only dipping by a few pence before bursting upwards at the finish. Trades going through for 102.8 to buy before 4pm and then up to 110.8 before close. No idea what was behind that but I am hopeful of a steady rise up to results on the 26th. Gla
Why the sudden uptick in buys for the last 30 mins?
I have been holding since the big drop and bought in a it seemed cheap and not sold since, so looking forward to a continued rise with results hopefully very positive!
Our VP of Emerging Market Financial Institutions, Mauricio Munguía is representing Crown Agents Bank this week at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and IDB Invest annual meetings of the boards of governors in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic.
From the 6-10th March, economic and financial leaders from 48 member countries of the IDB gather to discuss development topics covering climate change, economic growth in emerging markets, social and financial inclusion and so much more...
Reach out to Mauricio for a meeting and to find out more about the event, see https://lnkd.in/d4q9c3h
#idbinvest2024 #development #growth
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/activity:7171149752338776064
From Linkedin
Last night during the Central Banking Spring meetings, Simon Huckle and Barkot Tekle from our Emerging Markets FIs team, hosted a roundtable dinner on behalf of Crown Agents Bank.
With moderation provided by Judith Ndissi, the session explored the complexities that exist for central bankers in settling foreign debt commitments whilst managing valuable international reserves and the solutions available that allow for funding international payments from local currency liquidity.
Special thanks to Judith and to all who attended this engaging session. We look forward to following up further with the solutions discussed and an action-packed second day to close out the event.
#centralbanks #fx #solutions
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/crownagentsbank_centralbanks-fx-solutions-activity-7171167315072331776-QE6W?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
The tradeable free float of shares still looks very small which is ideal for a big move up...
Haha THE IRONY of some!
Someone who has incessantly posted on the GGP board, including daily share price commentary and even starting a new thread about share price predictions ROFL, trying to give someone else advice LMAO. COMICAL.
I will do as I wish, thanks, apologies if some simple facts hurt Lol
""THE EXPERIENCE, NETWORK AND KNOWLEDGE OF THIS BOARD AND EXECUTIVE TEAM IS MORE IN-KIND TO A $100 BILLION DOLLAR LARGE CAP THAN A $250 MILLION DOLLAR MICRO-CAP""
Bhairav is one of multiple high profile, and experienced leaders brought in to lead CAB. A few of the others are: Ann Cairns (Chair), Richard Hallett ('CFO'), Joseph Hurley ('CCO'), David Mountain ('CPO'), David Parker ('CIO'), Richo Strydom ('CTO'), Noel Harweth (Director). If these names don’t mean anything to you maybe some of the team’s experiences do: President of international markets at Mastercard, Global Treasurer at Citigroup, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, Chairman of Deutsche Bank, Director at National Australia Bank, CEO of Travelodge, CFO of Barclays Africa and senior roles at institutions like RBS, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, United Nations Migration Agency, and Discover Financial.
Plutus, please calm down. You have no idea what the company will decide to do with its excess cash this year or any other year.
You remind me of a friends Yorkshire Terrier that used to get so excited when I visited, it would wee all over my shoes. Whilst it's nice to see someone enthusiastic, your contant stream of copied and pasted posts are giving me flashbacks of urine soaked shoes. I'm sure you mean well.
No need to reply, I won't be able to see it.