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Apologies, the link got truncated in previous message, here's the full link:
https://cabpayments.com/site/assets/files/10774/cab_payments_fy23_presentation_final-1.pdf
Imagine if the RNS had some negative news & We would be seeing a massive sell off. Got a few more Today and will hold out for next RNS news.
Super strange, but also not too surprised, as the share price has been played for weeks now!
Patience will win big time here. Let the new 5% holder continue to buy more I guess lol
CFO buys - No impact
New 5% holder RNS - No impact
Brilliant results - Negative impact lol
Market wants growth, got it, profitable, yes, positive cash flow, yes massively, huge market opportunity, yep, competive advantages, got it, top BOD, Oh yes, growth industry, Fintech, yes, listed on Premium Market, Yes, any debt, ZERO. Ticks every single box.
And yet valued today worse than a LSE mining dinosaur Lol
Abnormal markets, can't go on for too long. A predator will come calling soon enough if this continues. With all the cash generated, dividends/share buy backs is a must. 4x EBITDA multiple is insane. For 2024 EV/EBITDA will be around 1. CRAZY
EBITDA - £65m
FCF -£55m
Growth - 25%
Remember had one off IPO costs in 2023
DYOR
(Same valuation multiple as Trustpilot, CABP should be £14+ today lol)
Going back over my notes from this morning's results webinar & slide deck, I made the following observations:
1. My BT concerns seem well placed. He didn't really inspire confidence and I thought lacked focus about the message. He lost his place at one point in prepared notes which didn't surprise.
2. RH (the CFO) seemed to be better although again some of the wording was a bit questionable (e.g. growth in core is not "potentially hidden" it's just "hidden"!). He did do a follow up to clarify some of the statements which I thought helped though.
3. Analysts in the room weren't openly hostile, but you got a sense they had identified some specific areas of concern that were being brushed over, so will be interesting to see if their guidance is lowered here as none of them seemed 100% satisfied with answers.
4. There was repeated talk of 83 new customers signed up, but no detailed explanation as to why 50% of those haven't done anything yet, what the wort-case timelines are to monetize them, or if this slow adoption really is "business as usual" or if there's actually some concern that these customers are customers in name only. This seemed to concern the analysts too.
5. Talk of customers moving up in to Top 20, but is this just another way of saying other customers drop out of the Top 20 because they spend less? They weren't able (or willing) to name the Top 5/10 corridors explicitly (45% of revenue) which was a concern. Is that hiding something?
6. Naira disruption to revenue (28m down to 18m) was offset by interest rate gains (10m up to 32m), but very little detail on impact for 24 when we know world is returning to lower interest rates. They did refer to it as "a drag" on 24, but 22 NII levels will leave a 22m hole in the bottom line, which is a full on RuPaul in my book.
7. Paraphrasing, but it sounded to me like the West African and Central African currencies had problems because the previous overly generous arrangements were amended to reflect reality.
8. Reduced dependence on Nigeria is sensible (was about 7%, expected to be under 5% in 24) but not enough made of potential for growth in similar developing areas such as Latin America.
9. Cost control mentioned as key but didn't really land the message, or why the need for yet more sales people to grow business. I wanted to see specifics about exactly what all these new staff are doing, and their success metrics.
10. ESG also mentioned as key, but numbers don't look great until you exclude Niara again. Yes it might now be 35% rather than -43%, but 35% of what? Needs $ figures too.
Overall it was adequate (I liked the EU/US stuff and the capital slides), but it really lacked "punch". It all feels a bit "smoke and mirrors". The lack of commitment to dividends even with huge FCF and reserves continues to raise alarm bells for me.
The slides are available on CABP Investors site->
https://cabpayments.com/site/assets/files/10774/cab_payments_fy23_presentation_
Agree strange SP action today......but I have zero doubt the SP will be rerating next month and the coming quarters....the FACTS are all there in the RNS. Bargain price at the mo. Invest and/or Hold for Gold.
Most folk looking at this can't understand the reason for the drop today. you'd think it'd be closer to 150 in expectation of the news to come.
have to assume it'll be a small daily rise from now until the news drops.
Debt free
Excellent platform and great reputation within the industry
25% increase in income
Final stage discussions with other tier 1 banks
EU licence imminent - Gamechanger -huge opportunities and new market for CABP to excel in
Holy Grail US licence on track for H2 - Game Changed
Ever increasing number of clients
APAC region now in focus as a fast follower
What is not to like......no brainer long term investment from my perspective....serious re-rate in due course. GLA
Would be good to see some Directors buying in the next day or so....
Topped Up,, Strong Buy and Hold
European Licence in the next month :-)
USA Licence in H2 2024
All good!
I'm happy with the update looking forward to get the licences over the line, this year.
Simply read the RNS in black and white.
Analysts and institutional investors will be on the call soon.
Profitable, churning out cash like no tomorrow, and zero debt for a £250m market cap company LOL
Transformational news on the horizon with the licenses.
And Dividends to come..
Weak hands out, smart investors will be loading up. (Same with Kingfisher yesterday, opened down to 224p on results, today 250p LOL). Funny old markets.
DYOR
A lot of positives here, debt free, in growth mode albeit a drop in net profit and a higher average tax rate. The next kick ups will be EU license and later US and I think they are keeping some good stuff back for the new CEO to fly the flag on. Probably settle around 100p for a while then start rising again is my sense of things.
Are these results actually significantly better than what they announced in October when it dropped to 48p? I'm not seeing anything massively different other than a firmer timeline for EU and US licenses.
So the fact that it hasn't dropped back to 50p instantly might suggest that any drop this morning is just going to be noise to trigger weak hands.
Probably best course of action is to hold and see how the day develops.
Any share price is all about future outlook.
Acquiring the EU and US licences in 2024 will have a significant material impact on income and profits. They are also in the final stages of discussions with other tier 1 banks. These FACTS will mean a significant rerate of the SP to above 250p-300p in due course. DYOR
SmallMoves, I agree with you there. The wording was absolutely abysmal. Anything he says should be checked by a responsible adult prior to release.
After reading the RNS I'm not surprised it's dropping. The sooner the CEO goes away and they get somebody who can open their mouth without putting their foot in it the better. Of the many annoying phrases in the RNS, this has to be one of the most delusional and shameless narcissistic notes I've read in a while...
"We did finish 2023 on a disappointing note, with negative surprises in two of our important markets. While we are not dependent on a short-term recovery here, we expect these to be important markets for us over the medium term. These changes highlighted a requirement for the Group to be increasingly proactive and influential at the highest level across the world, not only predicting change, but helping to shape effective regulation in the markets we serve."
In other words, in my new role and special advisor I'll be the one doing all the important stuff.
I think they are happy to take out the 10% stop losses set this morning and let's see where it goes from there. Since the over estimation of projected income/profit, this is an easy share for the markets to knock.
Stop ramping guys
Market trickery to shake some frightened holders into selling cheap. This morning.
Dropping by the looks of it
Other Matters
During the year, the Group undertook three activities of note which were covered in detail as part of the half year interim results announcement detailed in H1 2023:
1. The Group restructured its shares in issue to only have one class of ordinary share 'class A shares';
2. The Group undertook, as part of the pre-IPO shareholding restructure, a payment in dividends to shareholders; and
3. The Group also disposed of Crown Agents Asset Investment Management (CAIM) and JCF Nominees Limited (JCF) with effect from 31 March 2023.
In the year 2023, very few companies grow at the rate of 25%. Moreover they were busy sorting out IPO issues.
Presenting outlook will be given to new CEO. Probably new CEO will announce share buybacks/dividends.
EU licence in the next quarter and USA licence in H2 will be huge positive.
Im pretty sure they are referring to october where it dropped from £2 to 50p -market already knows about the 'disappointing note'
But they still grew income by 25%
US licence on track H2 204
EU licence imminent
These licences are truly game changing and both will be acquired in 2024.....amazing news. GLA