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This will open down probably 10/15%
My bet we revisit the 75 area soon
I really don't like the way they phrase some of the things that get put in these announcements.
Are these surprises something new vs. the outlook at IPO time, or surprises vs. the outlook after the October announcement disaster?
In other words, are these two new surprises (in which case why no heads up in at any time in past 3 months), or just ones we already know about (in which case calling them a surprise is a rather naive choice of words).
They'd better have a decent explanation for this at 9.30, and also I want to see some projections for 2024. On the plus side, there's a firmer timeline for both the EU and US licenses now.
Gross income increased 25%
EU licence approval imminent
US licence on track for H2 2024
In the near term we continue to focus on geographical diversification, establishing new market footprints in the United States, Europe and further developing our presence in LATAM. In future we will look to expand further establishing a presence in the APAC region.
We onboarded 83 new clients, of which 42 clients generated income in year, while 41 clients are expected to trade early in 2024.
We are in negotiations with several major financial institutions and expect some of these to begin operating with CAB Payments in the very near future.
So no guidance which looks dodgy
Brilliant. As expected and more, so much info. Key points below.
Investor call at 930am will be enlightening.
The Board will actively manage capital allocation with an emphasis on growth, but will also consider distributions to shareholders at the appropriate time.
EU licence in final stages
US license H2 2024
Adj EBITDA £65m
Free Cash flow £57m
Growth 25%
DEBT FREE.
The Group remains debt free with no debt securities in issue, we are proud that our debt free and highly-liquid balance sheet enables us to move in an agile manner to seize on growth opportunities
In 2023, we onboarded many high-quality clients, including Barclays, Inpay, Plan International and SNV Global, joining such institutions as Save the Children International, the Norwegian Refugee Council and PagoNxt/Santander.
We are in negotiations with several major financial institutions and expect some of these to begin operating with CAB Payments in the very near future
We have some sizeable clients we have already signed up who are yet carried out their first transaction; we will seek to guide them rapidly and smoothly through the activation process
DYOR
Financial and Operating Summary:
· Gross income1 increased 25% year-on-year to £137.1 million (2022: £109.4 million).
o Income growth in all four client segments.
o Wholesale FX and Payment FX income 1, when excluding Nigerian Naira, increased 28% year-on-year
· Adjusted EBITDA 1 £64.6 million, up 17% (2022: £55.0 million).
o Adjusted EBITDA margin1 47% (2022: 50%).
· EBITDA1 down 12% at £43.5 million (2022: £49.7 million), largely driven by IPO related costs.
· Total active clients increased 12% to 509 (2022: 456).
· Banking partners increased 16% to 331 (2022: 287), including 17% growth in payment partners.
· EU licence in final stages. US licence timeline H2 2024, providing significant market opportunities.
A presentation webcast and live Q&A conference call for analysts and institutional investors will take place on March 26th 2024 at 9.30 am UK Time, and a webcast of the presentation will be made available on the Group's website at Investors Home (cabpayments.com), where you can also register for this event.
No actual guidance on outlook unless someone can find something?
Profit after tax down 29 %
CABP needs to announce a good divi to get this going tomorrow
@Honest_Money - Let's hope they have at least achieved the 25% increase that they promised after the downgrade.
Plenty .of people seem happy to offload prior to results. I've kept the faith. Even Vanquis managed a 5% rise today!
Gla.
Market doesn't trust them - need to regain that trust
Or of course, no rally at all and a push lower before results day. Quite bizarre. Any other company reporting 25% gains would be flying. Maybe they are being punished for.being over optimistic with their 40% projection last year. I certainly hope they've learned their lesson. Best to promise a little less and over achieve.
Gla for tomorrow.
Still waiting.... Not too promising for tmrw?
GLA, hopefully the shorters get burnt xD
I think last week strange raise could indicate where the SP will go after results. I hope will quickly go up. But I know market doesn't like Cab and they still try to punish them (we can see this every day). As they have office in US and hope they will list on NASDAQ this year.
Standby for the usual afternoon rally...
Up from 107.20 to ??
Can easily drop if the market dosn`t like the results even though they may be in-line with expectations. Set aside some cash to buy more if drop is back into 90`s. Price is in limbo at moment waiting for results so no results leaks as yet ?. A rise or fall near end of trading Today may give some indication...
This share has underperformed for the last few weeks now, on the run up to results. Same pattern every day. I can only put it down to a mix of shorts and the large buyer that has been accumulating stock. (See previous RNS.) It is very strange that this has continued through to today.
This share is acting more like an Aim listed stock than FTSE. I have a gut feeling that the share may spike on opening in the am tomorrow morning on results and then drop back to sub £1. I do hope that I'm wrong of course.
Gla
The Full Year results are published tomorrow and from what I can see there's no unexpected surprises left in there as all the bad news has been communicated already, and the 25% growth figure re-iterated recently is above the best case scenario announced in October even though the Nigeria market was way trickier at end of 23 than anyone could have predicted.
Thinks look to have massively turned around in Nigeria so far this year, so surely the guidance for 24 is going to be significantly higher than for 23, and that's got to have a positive impact on SP/capital re-allocation?
Assuming all the above is correct, then it doesn't seem sensible to me to be shorting this stock on Tuesday morning as there's potential for a large upswing in the SP back up towards IPO price.
What am I missing here that the shorters are factoring in to their calculations? They must still think there's a reason why the SP is going to drop further to make the short position worth the risk? e.g. refusal of banking licenses, bigger competitor entering key markets, closure of Nigeria market to 3rd parties entirely etc.
Or have they all actually got out already and gone long, but just not got around to telling anyone yet?
Juicy future outlook with rate cuts
Emerging markets have seen foreign investment slow sharply, as investors shift money to more established economies like the US in response to higher rates. Central banks in countries such as Egypt and Nigeria have already raised their own interest rates aggressively to try to compete, a path others may have to follow if they hope to bring investors back, he said.But those moves - which sent rates to more than 20% in Egypt and Nigeria- will not come without local costs, he warned.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68619144.amp
Along with the decision, Fed officials penciled in three quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of 2024, which would be the first reductions since the early days of the Covid pandemic in March 2020. The current federal funds rate level is the highest in more than 23 years. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many forms of consumer debt...The plot indicated three cuts in 2025 – one fewer than the last time the grid was updated in December. The committee sees three more reductions in 2026 and then two more in the future until the fed funds rate settles in around 2.6%, near what policymakers estimate to be the "neutral rate" that is neither stimulative nor restrictive.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/03/20/fed-meeting-march-2024-.html
Results going to be better than expected,, I'm fully loaded and if I do get a lower buy point,, I'll definitely going to grab it,,
The share price is definitely being restrained. Over the last 2 weeks we have seen hardly any movement at all on the run up to results. On the 7th March we were at 107.40 and it has done the same pretty much every day. Slightly up on opening, then drop a couple of pence, rally after 2pm and finish around the same as the day before. I have not seen this with any other share that I have held. Its either shorts playing or possibly the big buyer hoovering up even more shares on the cheap. It could be a premeditated mixture of those two things. Something has to give at some stage. Especially when the results come out. But the way it is at the moment, I am half expecting an early morning spike on the day of results, followed by a swift reversal to 90p. I hope that I'm wrong.
Gla.
A quick reminder of the facts before next week.
One of the smallest free floats around, rerate could well be spectacular.
Premium Listed Company ✅️
UK Banking License ✅️
Significant Growth - 25% in 2023 ✅️
A Truly World Class Management Team ✅️
Recently quoted they have the knowledge expertise and skills to be running a $100 Billion company ✅️
Profitable ✅️
Huge FCF Positive - £37.9m in H123 ✅️
Consensus FCF est: 2024 - £73m/2025 - £106m
Cash - Should have £140m+ by end of 2024 ✅️
Clean balance sheet after IPO ✅️
Significant growth potential - 2 Licenses pending anytime ✅️, currently have just 1-2% of the total market ✅️
Types of Customers - High quality and growing customer base, made up of G10 government entities, some of the world's best known international development organisations, global remittance companies, emerging markets financial institutions and, increasingly, major market banks ✅️
Territories - Operate in 150 different countries ✅️
Significant Blue Chip Customers - 74 New customers between Q1-Q3 in 2023. Eg New clients in several regions, including Santander Group/PagoNxt. Signing client agreements with the three largest exchange houses in the United Arab Emirates etc ✅️
Super High EBITDA Margin - 57% in H123, is this one of the highest on FTSE ✅️
Recurring revenue - 96% 3 year retention ✅️
ULTRA low P/E - Less than 4x for 2024 ✅️
2024 EV/EBITDA Est - Totally disconnected to Fair Value - Current Market Cap £250m, Debt N/A, Cash £140m, EBITDA £83m = 1.32x 🤯 Yes 1.32, it's totally mind blowing ✅️
IMO Dividends/Share buybacks will come in 2024, then it's a full house, there will be no stopping ✅️
We kind of know 2023 results, more interested in 2024 guidance. Maybe also get Q1 trading update next month. With the expansion, new clients onboarded, 2024> could look spectacular. H1 23 growth was 94%, with a reset in H2 and new licenses granted, structural shift to specialist providers like CABP, and like they said expansion in US and Eurupe, growth in the next 12-18months could be phenomenal.
New offices, new roles. Capital reallocation on Tuesday would be amazing, or indication later on in 2024.
Easily see this as a multibagger by end of 2024.
DYOR
Totally agree.
Just look at today, Premium Listed Company, yet £60k worth of shares have traded, what's the point.
Forget the US, where it would be worth a few Billion atleast.
When simply compared to other UK companies its valued at a fraction when fundamentals are several times better. Lol
Totally broken Market for CABP. Only thing you can do is continue to load up I guess, and expect a quick catch up very soon.