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Funny enough tried to get on the other day but the wordpress link has disappeared from my emails . Can you email it to me again ,Certainly need to get up to speed !!!
TEF ticked all the boxes for me because of its transparency allowing you to appraise the individual devleopments and their merits or otherwise . Huge interest factor also which perhaps is not the best investment strategy !
Hi cyberduck
No large sample stats, but that is the point of my system (to identify the surges / slumps).
My original idea was watch Sp movement before / after RNS's. One that stands out in particular is Rdw. They only produce about 2 RNS's per year, IntRes (about 24/01/20) and FinRes (01/09/20).
Almost always a surge in Sp after both (but particularly Fin Res) - Buy about 5 weeks before, then sell 1 or 2 weeks after.
Check out last 5 years Sp movement between those dates.
I have a 5 year plan for each company displaying Relative Strength by Date, and a comparative plan of Relative Price and Relative Stregth by date for last 8, 5, 3, 2 and each year showing all my 5 companies.
This combined with my planner (which recalcs results of different investment plans, Historically), produces my investment plan.
But most importantly, keep up with developments, cos this is only a guide. For instance Last year surge in tw after PreFins, (this year possibly tomorrow) but slump after PreInts (due to quality problems).
I have no Float in tw now cos don't think they will be great (cos of quality and / or weather).
Can't do anything about Politics / Media / Brexit, so basically I ignore them.
BoL
>For companys in table av inc 44.9%. By moving a float between them (at best times) I still think I can make at least 20% more than that ie 65% + with Divis on top of that.
The difficulty is picking "the best times". Is there any large sample statistical evidence that there are "best times"?
Hi strictly
As my table below shows, you could have simply invested in bdev for a year and make 57.4%, add on divis then over 65%.
For companys in table av inc 44.9%. By moving a float between them (at best times) I still think I can make at least 20% more than that ie 65% + with Divis on top of that.
Next results are tw and psn PreFins, but not optimistic (cos of weather delaying completions and both still tackling quality problems). Got a little float in psn for divi and no float in tw.
Think both could drop after PreFins, then buying opportunity? More like Day trading (which is not what my system is about), but if weather has affected results it will affect all builders, and the rest will underperform as well, but 1st 2 will recover as this becomes apparent. Last to report, a decease in estimates will be expected. Main point is it doesn't affect fundamentals.
I see no reason for any decrease in Builders Sp growth this year, (basics remain the same, demand far > supply, low interest rates and mortgages readily available), and sooner or later the market will realise Builders are massively undervalued. This alone could double their Prices.
BoL
Sain,
I don't know if you still read the blog but, if you do, why not sign up for Strictly Wacky Races for 2020...?
If you do, you'll almost certainly up your investment game - you can see the results that the new investors there have achieved there last year with several hitting over 60% by the year end...
I think the likelihood is that this will be a much smaller year share-price-performance-wise, so my next task is to try to manage the expectations of some of the newer blog readers/investors, some of whom may be thinking/hoping that it's going to be like this all the time now that THEY have joined...!
Strictly
Hi SainVision
According to my system relative Sp 04/01/19 = 100 then RSp 27/12/19:
Bdev 157.4
Rdw 151.2
Bwy 145.0
Tw 138.6
Psn 132.1
All good returns, surprised SME's doing so badly.
BoL
100p dividend being paid tomorrow.
Wow new 52 week high I feel like a ******* for not following suit and joining the ex Teflites here last summer Fair play to Strictly he certainly has had the measure of Bellway for sometime
Oh boy anouther year with cliff edge or not on our basic trade relationships.
We used to be lions ruled by donkeys. Now we are Lions rules by a single donkey with a 5 year mandate to rule as a donkey. Not really an improvement.
Still I expect interest rates will stay low and there will be some simulative spending and maybe some further help to private house sales.
I expect Labour will emerge as a slightly more centrist opposition and slightly more credible candidate for government in 5 years time but I'll take my investment calculations on that closer to the time. For now Labour are not significant from our point of view as investors.
House of lords can cause government some trouble and will be interesting to watch. Centrists within the Tory parliamentary party will be interesting to watch. They can't be happy with this hardening up of a cliff edge. Don't know if there are 80 of them willing to defy the whip though.
I suspect we are at the mercy of Boris for 5 years. To me that means our housing shares will rise but not as much as they could have. Glad I have my EU start up and global tech stocks as over 1/2 my portfolio so that I am not 100% dependent on Boris. I'm not getting my million pound isa any time soon but still have that as a 10 to 15 year plan. First leg up will be helped by our UK builders whom are still 40% to 50% undervalued. After that I will need to switch to faster growing stocks.
Big week ahead.....what will the SP be at close of business on Friday?.
Demos,
I did wonder.....!
Now re-sent, so hopefully received..?
Strictly
Sorry Strictly ... messed up. Should be demosblog456@gmail.com ! Thanks
Demos,
"...so I'd like to join Strictly's blog if poss ..?"
....................................
I've just sent you an invite from the blog together with some notes in an email.... just come back to me via email rather than here unless you dont't receive my missives...
Strictly
I believe there's a quarterly review of the composition with movers in and out based on market value. Last review was 4th September with changes taking effect 3 weeks later. So early December for announcements, not sure about a fixed date though. All depends on if BWY can maiantain momentum in market value compared to those likely to drop out.
demos if bwy were to be upgraded to the footsie 100 when would you expect such an announcement. are there fixed dates for such events?
Having lost a tidy sum on TEF, like a few others on here I guess, I can't afford to repeat the experience. I'm impressed by the deep analysis of the sector and the common sense approach so I'sd like to join Strictly's blog if poss ..? A temp e.mail address is demosglog456@gmail.com
Hopefully I can contribute to the blog in time.
BTW, good input from Facevalue .. entry into FTSE 100 would be major boost for BWY. Just bought some on the basis of that possibility. Cheers
Thanks steph,
So do they break down their percentage holding in these companies and the price paid? The stuff I read was pretty high level. I still say you need to know this and evaluate each company.
I am sceptical in regard to valuations and I wouldn't trust the valuation just because another VCT had paid such and such amount. I've seen too many investors get carried away with valuing tech. I come from a computer science background and I've seen people who don't understand hooked by the latest in gobbledygook. Just reading the article shows you how little VCT's actually know about tech. They were asking what AI is back in 2015.
thanks
looked at a IC write up of the Woodford Patient Fund and an upgrade on anouther part of their portfolio balanced the downgrade. I suppose it happens. GROW also has 2 downgrades in it's core portfolio balanced by much larger upgrades.
I consider GROW a stonking buy at 20% below NAV/share, a great buy up to NAV. Still an OK buy up to 20% above NAV/share and a bit of a toss up after that. Broker ratings suggest should be trading above 20% above NAV/share. I suppose on the steady pattern of NAV/share upgrades since the 2016 float.
Besides the history of upgrades the quality of the core holdings of GROW give me confidence that NAV if anything is understated and lagging. I enclose below just one of their holdings which is an absolute star. Can't buy into it any other way.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit
below from the interim results of GRWO.
Graphcore
Graphcore, the machine intelligence chip company, announced the opening of their new Cambridge office and plans to hire 500 new staff. They have also expanded into Beijing, China, and Hsinchu, Taiwan.
The company has developed IPUs (Intelligent Processing Units) which enable unprecedented levels of compute. In May 2019, the company announced that Dell was one of the first customers to build an IPU-based Dell platform, combined with Graphcore's Poplar software stack. This platform is due to launch in Q4 2019, ready to ship to customers before year end.
Post period-end, the company announced their collaboration with Microsoft Azure. This is the first time a major public cloud vendor is offering Graphcore IPUs which are built from the ground up support next generation machine learning. The development is a testament of the maturity of their patented IPU technology.
>The more I look at it the more I am convinced the NAV is conservatively calculated and there is hidden treasure as we had for TEF
Steph, did you take a look at the Woodford Patient Fund? Surely the same arguments apply to them too? You'd think they would have had the pick of the best tech companies around yet they didn't have a great record (but perhaps you have to be more patient?). Why are you so convinced it is different with GROW?
With these funds apparently keen to invest in small technology companies (and taking a cut of the investment money themselves) you have to wonder whether the values are realistic. Or are they just paying more each time the company asks, creating the impression of growth in value?
I think you'd have to look at each company that the fund invests in and ask yourself whether what has been paid is realistic or is there just so much cash around with those hoping to find the next Google or Facebook that people are paying silly prices? But are you actually provided with this info.?
Are there any of these funds that have been going for long enough to look at how many of their investments work out? Technology has always been around so you'd expect so. I can remember a couple these type of funds folding after the tech bubble burst. Do you know if any have been going since before the financial crisis?
I held shares in PurpleBricks for a while which is slightly different but the original owners raised capital in several stages. There were some investors pre-IPO but they eventually got listed on AIM at £1 per share from memory. Later on they raised capital by issuing new shares at £2.20 a share and investment funds were falling over themselves to get some. A few weeks later the owners sold some of their own shares at £3 because investment funds weren't satisfied. Then a while later they raised more capital at £3.60 and the original owners also sold some then too. In terms of the business, things didn't quite pan out the way investors hoped and the shares are now trading at about £1 (after being around £5 at one time) and the original owners have now sold all their shares.
Sain will tell you about another online Estate Agent which was about to have an IPO. Before doing so they had one final round of crowdfunding and I think the reason they gave (or one of them anyway) was to reward the investors who had supported them up until that point. A few months later they called in the receivers.
BWY ranked 106 at last FTSE review in Sept, the next review is due on 4th Dec, could Bellway make it to FTSE 100? This more than likely would lead to an increase in SP as FTSE 100 trackers could then buy BWY shares to reflect their tracker funds.
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php
I do my own decisions and im sure the psn advise will be correct in the longer term
Short term it is a crap shot on sp’s