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@NigeCo... I wrote InvestorEase in the late 1990s (pre-internet days). It became economically unviable when the LSE started charging over 30k a year in license fees, so I had to stop it. Although I still use it myself for my personal portfolios and keep the databases up to date.
IAPR, "InvestorEase" That's a blast from the past mate, I used to subscribe to IE's about 15 - 20 years ago. I thought that they had gone out of business?
@ Velo
This site shows the Altice among the shareholders.
http://www.investorease.com/tr1sa.php?token=bt.agf0e97ab2332
Casa' - from Simply Wall Street.
The first I've seen to incorporate Altice as a key holder automatically on approved processed data.
In the absence of an RNS, would appreciate anyone's finds of any other sites now fully listing Altice as a bona fide holder. Cursory glance at the LSExchange but found nothing.
Hi Velo where's your data from ?
The first "recorded" change in shareholders of Altice being legally now on the books is out this morning, showing Altice at 12.11% ownership ( 1,200,000,000 shares) in pole position, demoting DT to 2nd position with 12.07% holding, and 3.85m or so, less shares.
If correct that it's now all gone through, then an RNS from BT might emerge before the week closes. Top 25 holders has gone up from 56/58% ownership to just under 67% ownership.
Will post the new top 5 or so, holders either tonight or tomorrow morning.
Good comments Casa,
If media reports are to be believed Drahi was interested in OpenReach at a price of £20BN but was knocked back, so the next best thing for now at least was to buy 12.1%, or options to acquire this stake. Could Drahi's intentions still be to purchase OpenReach at a later date? Also, why didn't Drahi act when the share price was on it's knees at 100p, why wait for the share price to almost double before he made his move?
Coffee's working! Couple of points to add to my earlier post .
Dessy's list of other significant holders must by implication include some who have taken the other side of the Drahi deal ie they have agreed to make their holding available for sale at a price somewhere above last weeks, to bank a profit. They may have held for a while and be well in the black . This means a bit of double counting in that those holdings are not IN ADDITION to Drahi's but form part of it, and of course if the transfer of control takes place , will not necessarily drive the SP higher , so we might see a pause in upward momentum soon. There is also the risk that Drahi , having stealthily accumulated could equally stealthily exit , with a profit. The transparency of the market only applies to us mere mortals.
fleccy .... yeah re OFCOM , I've had my second cup of coffee now and functioning at near normal levels... ie from poor up to nearly adequate!!
Casapinos I agree with your theory about Drahi's share ownership, as there clearly hasn't been any evidence showing significant purchases, apart from the 7th June. Just to correct you on one thing though, it's OFCOM, not OFGEM, that regulates BT.
There is a much more complex story behind Drahi's position than has so far emerged. It is very obvious that he didn't get from zero to 12% in two days , 'cos he isn't actually at 12%.
His initial approach to the BT board last week was to disclose that he "CONTROLS" 12% of the equity and indeed the holding RNS's to detail a transfer of OWNERSHIP just haven't turned up .
In order to construct his position in darkness, he has apparently done deals to take an option on a number of shares , which are still technically and actually "owned" by others , he has maybe CFD's or other indirect means of control. This has not cost him the ~£2-3 bill. full ownership would have been but offers the same degree of upside.
The net effect of this approach is broadly the same as ownership in that he has a significant say in the future direction of BT and if they don't go along with him he can, if he chooses, and is willing to pay up to execute on his various indirect holdings , vote them in his preferred direction .
What that direction is, is not clear yet except that it is to make a profit. We all recognise that BT has been chronically undervalued, in some cases for good reason. I posted here some considerable time ago that the depart of Dame Sharon from OFGEM was BT's best news for years and so it has proved, the recent OFGEM rulings are more sensible and substantially beneficial for BT . The Covid "ill wind " has blown BT a huge amount of good in the recognition of the need to "Fibre up" the UK and the long term rumours of the spin off of Openreach , even if it never happens, is hugely SP positive.
As a shareholder here and one who has taken the opportunity of the Covid effect on FTSE stalwarts like BT, LGEN, LLOY,....to add significantly in the expectation of a return to normal valuations for boring companies which make reliably large sums of money each year, I expect the BT SP to progress, it may be no more than Drahi seeing the same very obvious investment opportunity or something much more dynamic , either way it is good for holders.
Can just about manage another post.
I should add, despite anything untoward occurring, all the trend line timespans, and indicators et all, are tonight tremendously strong.
Be in no doubt about that. Bullish strength in the SP abounds in all disciplines.
It's just the accounting of one very big buyer's influence into that mix.
Hi Velo,
I agree with all your comments below mate.
Yes going back to our conversation on 6th June, I don't think anyone could have predicted a BT share price of 200p 10 days later. BT had already had a good run up and without news of Drahi's purchases I don't think we would be where we are today, closing at 200.20p but I will take that. Yes it was fairly obvious that Drahi hadn't acquired his 12.1% holing over two days, if he had the share price would have sky rocketed.
I read an article that claimed that Drahi always takes control of all his shareholdings. So I guess the million Dollar question is will he take over BT at some point in the future? Will he increase his shareholding further with intentions of bidding once his 6 month period is up? Interesting times ahead for BT shareholders.
(Concludes) > > >
. . . He didn't attain 12% in 2 days as he alleges, banks and institutions have come forward to disclose he commenced first buying via their resources in March
- precisely the time I got caught out on a false negative thus selling only to buy back-in days later, as he Dracula, started buying heavily - and it showed in the accelerated uptrend straight after a dismal start to the new year. Makes me wonder if he wasn't already present back in November 2020?
- as that would be the big kind of buyer to turn round a 5 year declining SP.
But the SP kinda, sort-of, just started a big, big, breakout in general, all on its own, in November last year? yeah, right :)
A profile of him published in the media 2 or 3 years ago sums up his modus operandi that's brought him the success to where he is today:
- as a buyer in the morning and a seller by the same afternoon.
I'm not anti-Dracula. But his reputation precedes him. He gets what he wants. But if ever he needs funds elsewhere, the damage of his withdrawal from BT wouldn't be pleasant IMO.
* Bull trend is too acute.
* SP is still in overbought condition.
* And there's a triple witching hour approaching, where north becomes south and vice versa. I'd rather be in a downtrend entering triple witching hour than the opposite. The days after Friday will tell. Maybe nothing at all will occur.
If Drahi has supposedly ceased buying - then what or whom, is propelling the SP higher and higher?
If not Dragi then has to be other major institutions.
As said, now the big buyer has promised he has had his fill, that's it, no more. Then continuing acute uptrend he induced, is still just "too acute" for my liking.
Hi Nige,
Saw the SP intraday in the 200's and was looking to post: That's it! Gooooooal
(Couldn't as I was up to my armpits in telephone calls helping someone with their private pension withdrawals).
As I'd intimated in an earlier post, that it's not the closing the summer at 200 that would be the decider, but merely as an intraday high to 200 would be enough for me. It did both today.
The market et al, including myself, have been utterly blindsided by Altice. Never saw it coming. His presence couldn't be factored in, in advance.
Without Drahi Dracula, my projection (not a forecast) was a likely outcome of not 200 by summer end.
But as said, once it was in the higher 190's, you didn't need confirmation to realise something else momentous was afoot, but Altice preceded that by a country mile.
So 200 it is Nige!
Good on yer!
BINGO!!!
It was one of Drahi Dracula's subsidiaries that was leading the initial talks of an Openreach potential sale; the one that threatened the sale would take place the easy way or the hard way if I recall correctly, and here is the owner of that subsidiary now - on the BT board!
He's known for replacing entire BOD's not to mention being tight with staff, so any future division/disquiet, felt amongst self-serving BOD members maybe, could, then galvanise a part-sale of Openreach to dissuade him from action; and would not ultimately surprise me should a part-sale-only be considered.
He didn't attain 12% in 2 days as he alleges, banks and institutions have come forward to
Bugger! Will I ever fit a post on one page!!! (continues > > >)
He's not the messiah. He's just a very naughty boy :)
6th June Velo.... "I expect decent progress in the last 3 months of this year; not spectacular, but steady. Worse case scenario over summer? = Hold."
Hi Velo, while I always respect your comments and opinions. I feel very bullish about BT short-term and long-term. I think that BT will be 200p plus by end of summer. It will be interesting to see who's right on this occasion. I wouldn't mind a pull back in the share price as I intend topping up, so I see it as a win, win situation.
----------------------------------------
Who would have thought it that the above conversation on 6th June when the BT share price was at 177p? Only 10 days later or in fact 8 trading days that we have closed at 200.20p at the first time of asking. Wow, go BT.