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I'm seeing at a 1.2% premium
Combined EBITDA of enlarged Group is £160m based on street expectations (888, BWIN+£70m synergies) Put it on 10.5x EV/EBITDA gets you to an EV of £1670m Net debt of £245m Implies share price of enlarged 888 = 200p BIG UPSIDE TO CURRENT BWIN SHARE PRICE IF ONE DOES THE MATHS, WHICH FEW HAVE BOTHERED DOING
QueenElvis, My view is and always has been a basket case and I have never really had cause to alter that opinion. This has been a prolonged and sad demise of a company that was at one time a market leader. Some long term holders will have seen a huge reduction in value iniitally after the UIGEA and then again after the ill-fated merger and may be tempted to hold post takeover to recover some value lost previously. I was a fan of 888 and held it for quite some time and I believe that they are a good company with the necessary talents to extract value from Bwin. GVC too possess a great track record. Even with resource of excellent teams - this will be difficult to turn around and even more so against the backdrop of paying a price in excess of £900m. If i were still an 888 shareholder I'd be nervous of this and the transition period would no doubt be difficult. The achievements of both 888 and GVC in improving their respective businesses in recent years would be only half as difficult as engulfing Bwin sucessfully. Bear in mind that Bwin have presided over falling revenues and rising costs so the sought for synergies may not be gained as easily as one may think. The news, if correct, will probably allow the price to spike upwards tommorow and allow me a nice exit point without the complication of whether to hold paper in an enlarged venture. I shall thereafter bid farewell to this stock and probably as well to a few posters on here who have been around to endure the ride. I hope that my views here have stimulated some discussion, allowed some views to be questioned and most importantly helped others, even if they only read my posts and thought "what's that moron posting now". I'm aware that I post in an often robust nature that is not to everyone's taste and I treat success and failure as part of the game in equal measure. To those i may have offended here, whether intenionally or not, you all have my best wishes regardless and to all holders still holding tommorow evening I wish you the very best of luck. In particular I'd mention crookman who has ceaselessly provided information for years on this stock. i think it's fair to say we 'sword fenced' a bit at the outset and did not always agree. Irrespective of the outome of our respective crystal ball gazing efforts back in 2012 & 2013, I must comment that your contributions often caused me to reassess matters and that why we come here after all. Kamel
In the last year I can see how this has been good to trade as it had bottomed out. Back in 2009 the price was over £3 and 3 years prior it was as high as £15. The bod made a real mess with one wrong move and blind alley after another. I'm lucky I averaged down to just 115 so I'm in good shape but I know some poor souls who have lost big time. I hope for them something good comes of this. GL
I hear what long-termers here are saying but consider this: there are loads of companies out there which were previously thought of as solid investments which have axed their divis and saw their market values plummet when bpty has at least continued paying out something. You might find a few people holding other shares desperate for takeover interest from from anywhere let alone from two companies. There are record numbers of profit warnings being issued by companies at the minute. Anybody who holds a share which drops has few options - sell at a loss, average down using various methods of the definition of that process, sit and wait for recovery. GVC not a shabby company in my view and a few companies out there more zombie like than bpty in my view. I would just be a bit dishonest not to admit that bpty has been very good to me since I first took an interest late last year and Kamel I think is in the same position. Good luck.
I'm on the same page Havey. Although any change from the current position would be welcome. As you say as long as our current BOD are fired. As for the 888 price dropping, I can live with that for a while as I know in the medium term they will come good, best management team in the sector in my opinion and the USA will be interesting. Just hope it happens now.....false dawns and all that.
Crooks as a long time holder like you my only hope is a mix of cash and shares plus no board position for tefllonburger. Saying that post merger usually entails a SP drop until fundamentals have been established , wouldn't be good to get 50% in shares then watch that half in price as well. I think 888 with its synergies would be he best combination of companies for post merger stability.
A little taste: 888 Holdings, the online casino and poker operator, is nearing victory over rival GVC in the battle to acquire Bwin.party, the Gibraltar-based internet gaming group, in a takeover that is likely to be worth more than £900m. A deal between 888 and Bwin could be announced as soon as Friday, according to two people familiar with the matter. They cautioned, however, that a deal has not yet been signed and could fall apart.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2eaeba14-2be2-11e5-acfb-cbd2e1c81cca.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3g5Ucmybl Sorry if you don't subscribe, but I don't want to copy and paste as the FT are funny about it.
QE, the problem for most (Not Kamel) is that our investments go back years rather than months and many need anything between 1.20 and 2.00 plus just to break even! This 1.10 figure really grates….
Blimey Kamel you must be a very difficult person to please? as I think the return here has been super since April when you bought and they even paid out a divi. Got above £1.04 today but everybody holding out now for at least £1.06 or above. I must adjust my expectations from shares upwards I guess. Good luck.
Yeah, I dread to think what they may of uncovered during due diligence. I’m actually sort of tempted to hang on now and see what GVC can do with my shares in them, the cash element will refresh my bank balance to make me feel good enough about letting the shares roam free. If their performance with SBT is anything to go by I have a lot more faith in them than Teflon and co. The GVC share price did double in a fairly short time frame on a good performance, although this deal would take some more time in my view. You’re right greed is NOT good!!
crookman, Paradoxically the higher offer from GVC/Amaya may be because the reduction of threat in the US from a larger 888/Party has more value to them than the opportunity to 888/Party themselves. I had always felt that once any potential purchasers got under the skin of this - the price would drop as there must be untold horror stories within it. As regards 106p, I think I'd be happy at that yes. However, i said that before and never even hovered over the sell button even once - isn't greed a dreadful decision wrecker?
Kamel, slowly we’re getting close to your 106 point, it’s harder sometimes to know when to sell then buy? I think 888 is going to be a non starter, the rumour is the offer is a lower price and I can’t see Teflon wanting to lose face even entertaining it, even if the deal may bring more value in the long run. I have to say that 888/Party combined in the states would be a plus, especially if Amaya is still seeing road blocks in many states if and when they finally open. The only tricky issue would be the partners, MGM and Caesars, would they be happy to team up? So many questions, but I think 9 months was long enough to sort this out by now.
Aint that so but takeover proposals made this one of the surest footed ftse shares to trade during the recent Greek turmoils.
The offer of 110p is in all likelihood going to be the best offer. In the absence of 888 "upping the ante" and the recent press coverage suggests that they will not do so, then this appears to be nearing the end of the saga. My initial thoughts in March were that at anything north of £1 would be good, however, I like many was just curious to see whether the €1.5bn price touted in the press was possible. I stuck around at 106p when i really ought to have known better. IMHO at 110p or indeed anything close it's time to get out before this offer gets derailed / price chipped/ complicated or delayed. This has been a disaster of a company and surely another disaster if more likely now than a potential upturn.While i still hope that 888 come up with something- if i were holding 888 i'd not be too disappointed at walking alway from this. I'd intended to hold until the conclusion of the takeover or the end of the summer. There may be one more mini spike over the next week -if that happens I'm out of this. Good luck to all holders
lol...Good point mate.
GVC will get it. 888 + Israel = no money spent . They didn't create those jokes for nothing.
Not sure there’s a board anywhere out there that would want him. He needs to stick to golf!!
http://calvinayre.com/2015/07/13/business/888-holdings-to-convince-bwin-party-for-a-takeover/ come let's just for once see this board try and do right by the owners of this company the shareholders. One good thing I'll make money if Norbert ever joins another board, I'll stick a short on straight away.
I don't think 888 will sit back without a fight. It might even attract others to the war e.g. William Hill
“It seems that Bwin.party’s tenure as a listed company is one step closer to ending,” David Jennings, an analyst at Davy Research, said in a note. “The key remaining question now is whether this news will prompt any rival bids.”
Thanks for the reply , yes seems reasonable but even knowing how useless this BOD is I can't imagine they won't move for a better price as its a derisory offer
http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/07/09/us-bwin-party-m-a-gvc-holdings-idINKCN0PJ0JZ20150709
* which will put a whole new complexion on the situation.