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Thanks Frankie, really hope the 'source' is correct about Bwin.party. It really is about time!!
TODAY'S TALK POKERSTARS NJ chatter is increasing, with talk in a few spots that resolution of the company's locked-in-limbo status could come as soon as this weekend. There's no official word from NJ officials or from Amaya, but it's the first serious talk I've heard on the topic in recent weeks. I expect we'll also see a ramping up of the company's collaborative advocacy effort in California - Californians For Responsible iPoker - in the days ahead (CRIP? C4RIP? Unfortunate acronym possibilities abound). INSIDERS are split on Pennsylvania's chances for 2015. I spoke with a number of stakeholders following this week's Senate hearing and they were divided right down the middle, with half declaring the effort near-dead for 2015 and half seeing reason for optimism. BWIN.PARTY should pull the trigger on a sale in the coming days, according to sources close to the process. The mix of products and suitors remains relatively fluid. AMAYA is on a tear, up some 6% as of writing, capping off a rally that put the stock more or less where it was before the Globe & Mail's feature piece dropped. What's driving the rally? It could be the market digesting the lack of new content in the G&M feature; the initiation of coverage by Macquarie, who slapped an outperform and $40USD price target on the stock; the perception that news will be made at Monday's AGM; or the feeling that the company is close to another acquisition (perhaps bwin.party or a DFS site). CONNECT @OPReport / LinkedIn / Google+ Share: Facebook LinkedIn 3651 Lindell Road Suite D 505
Some trading opportunities here since Friday but no proper rebound back up over £1 to that £1.06 level. The whole thing is taking an eternity and the price action is not suggesting much of a premium if and when the takeover proceeds - or it is being made to look that way. Going to tread cautiously with this one now if I tread at all as I have lots of other shares on a watchlist. Good luck to all holding.
This is a very concise article and really sums up their thoughts well. Quite a departure for the normally uninformative nonsense issued by Peel Hunt, If the bid did not materialise would the SP not revert to the level prior to the most recent speculation i.e. mid 70's (rather than 80-90p range)? This would seem likely as this was where the market pegged it at that time. Given the disposal of 50m shares there would surely be downward pressure there too. All that being said, IMHO this is not a likely scenario now. The price drop from @ £1.06 to 94p was well overdone as it effectively reduced the MC by even more than the total value of the 50m shares and the rebound as predicted by a few of you did seem very likely. Essentially, there has been no change at all here, in that, if the business is genuinely worth 1.5Bbn Euro, then that's still the case. The fact that the Analyst had suggested execution risk and limited upside is by far the most important factor. Only those in the discussions to take this over genunely know the position and we're all in the dark until they show their hand. Well done to those who bought on the dip by the way.
Investec picking up shares for 888 holdings, did I read that right. I wonder what % 888 have in BPTY?
Thanks for the share. Pretty much as discussed. Personally i think it's the risk factor. Nothing really to worry about. Let's hope for a rebound.
More or less what we've been saying earlier...
Analyst Nick Batram at Peel Hunt said: News of the desire of the trustees of Emerald Bay and Stinson Ridge to sell down their respective holdings does come at a strange time. However, unless a potential suitor has acquired the holding then not much has really changed. Whilst the timing is consistent with the requirement (under the October 2013 agreement) to sell prior to the end of October 2015, to do it when the group is in active discussions with a number of suitors is curious. Clearly the trustees are not privy to any of the discussions, therefore there could be a number of possible reasons. First, they could have been approached by one of the suitors. Second, it may well be that an (or several) aggressive investors have a positive view on the likely outcome of talks and they approached the trustees. Finally, it could just be that the trustees felt that the risk reward situation was suitably balanced for them to complete the sell down. Our view remains that a bid is the most likely outcome. Much will depend on the scale of synergies and the execution risk the bidders place on any deal. At the top end, it is possible to see 130p plus but equally a more cautious stance on execution risk suggests limited upside from here. If a bid does not materialise then the stock could head back to the 80p-90p level. On balance our view remains that investors should hang on.
think i would be more worried if the colorado outfit bailed.
Was looking to do the same, but i need to look after my ticker. I'm trying my best to ignore everything until we get some news. Best of luck!
Call me nuts but I just topped up at .94
Institutions or a sole buyer?
True, I Would like to know now who picked them up?
See it like this. If you were holding a 50m investment what would you do? Personally i wouldn't take the risk and a sell would be on the cards.
I can only guess the bigger the investment the bigger the risk. They are not really in a position to gamble with such huge amounts, so a sell is the safest bet. We got to remember these guys are looking for a long-term investment in the company they originally invested in.
Thanks QE. looking at the sells so far I think the deed is now complete and the price had held at 94-95 so fingers crossed the worst is over.
To be pedantic notified on that date that they had closed their short position. .
They obviously considered the threat of a takeover to that position as very real and that is the only crumb of comfort I can provide at the moment Crookman. I'd like to say this is as bizarre as it can get with takeovers but I have seen even more strange shenanigans with others. atb
Good point, as you say the time frame to sell the shares was drawing close and perhaps this was considered their best jumping point. I can only assume the trustees could not be privy to any inside info so this is purely a judgement call. At least the RNS confirmed this had no bearing on ongoing talks. This share never ceases to surprise!
I’m just happy to pick a point to jump out, be it prior to a takeover or soon after. I’m not looking for long term value as my experience with this sector has shown it to be too much of a roller coaster. Great for trading but rubbish for going long.
My first reaction was exactlyu the same as yours crookman, however, upon reflection I'm trying to see the logic of the placing by Emerald Bay & Springowl. If a deal were truly imminent why would they not just wait until the end of the "coming weeks" before taking the decision make this announcement. Strategically, it may be an attempt to force the Board's hand as without the takeover on the table, whether the deal collapses or is rejected, then the effect on the SP with the sale of 50m shares the price would plummet. In the case of Emerald Bay they must be fearful that they only have a few months left to divest of these shares and the ongoing dithering without a concrete resolution will be concerning them hugely. This is of course just pure speculation on my part. I remain of the view that the BoD has no other choice other than to agree to a takeover on the best terms that they can manage. Not a nice wake up call though
Yesterday's share price meant that there were people in the know about today's announcement. Have you asked yourself what it is you want here. Do you want cash or do you want a mix of cash and shares in some other company. Got the latter with shares lots of times and the shares of the companies doing the takeover have usually disappointed. Looked at 888 this morning. Not a queue of buyers there is there. See what other official info gets out. Good luck and maybe goodbye.
Something of a rude awakening! But at least the monkey of them 50M shares are now off the backs of the company and maybe now things can move forward. The price drop from the open was purely technical and any positive news will send it straight back up I think. For someone that likes risk this could be a good buying opportunity
On 31st May I asked "After the initial surge on the definite takeover news, this price has been pure pants. Not looking anything like a share at the centre of a takeover battle to me. In short, why is the price not higher." I guess we know now. Ironically this share is one of my best performers of the year with a divi thrown in. 6th Sense comes to many of us over time with takeovers.
I think your alarm clock just went off.