Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Good morning.
Take professional advice whether to subscribe to the Open Offer or Placing. Do not rely on this BB with its many shorters, disgruntled ex-holders and anti-BPC persons (some who machine gun post negativity daily WITHOUT RESEARCHED LINKS OR EVIDENCE) for that advice.
Key dates and news timeline in BPC’s reset
This week
• Today 17/5 11am Extraordinary General Meeting with vote results at +/-2pm
• Tuesday 18/5 11am latest time and date for receipt of Application Forms and payment in full under the Open Offer
• Wednesday 19/5 4:35pm RNS announcement of the result of the Open Offer and the launch of the Placing
• Thursday 20/5 7am RNS announcement of the results of the Placing
Next week
• Monday 24/5 7am RNS confirmation Saffron 2 was spudded, previous day (UK overnight) Trinidad time.
• Thursday 27/5 8am: shares bought in the OO and placing appear in CREST (online) accounts.
• Thursday 27/5 4:30pm until next day's opening at 08:00 am: The 1 in 10 consolidation will take place overnight.
• Friday 28/5 when you wake up in the morning and logon to your share platform, the old shares should have been replaced with one in ten new shares at ten times the value (at close on 27/5) of the old ones.
By end of June (IMO)
• S2 spud interim results
• Detailed Bahamas Percy-1 autopsy (Eytan presentation, ‘4-6 weeks from now’)
• Update on Suriname spud
• Final Percy-1 costs as negotiated with suppliers
• Update on general funding needs
• Update on next steps in Trinidad exploration and production
• Update on the EA court process
• Y/E 2020 audited accounts including material events since 31/12/20 as at publication date
Summer 2021 (IMO)
• S2 full results
• Possible commencement of legal action against the enviros for attempting an injunction which cost BPC and its shareholders millions, while allegedly harassing suppliers (LOL and Lloyds)
• Confirmation Bahamas licenses have been renewed from 1/7/21 for 3 years……
• …..which could open the door to a farm-in announcement by a major player or a consortia of smaller ones to share the risk/reward. Will BPC get a percentage of the $140m spent and/or free Percy-2 and 3 drill(s) in 2022/3?
BPC’s Mcap is seriously undervalued and currently based on the tiny 450-500boe/day in production. The imminent corporate reset will clear the slate, so the company and its real shareholders can move onwards and upwards.
IMHO. DYOR. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Andy
If you have not selected to buy any more through open off, then you will just keep your shares you own now.
If you selected to buy more through oo, then you need funds in your account.
If agm resolutions pass, the share no will be divided by 10.
Probably Potter cashing in already... :)
Joke!!
Is that a buy or sale
14-May-21 16:36:51 0.3825 20,000,000 Sell* 0.37 0.40 76.50k O
Santiago
Like you, I have no idea.
SGO666, it is always hard to leave an abusive relationship. don't laugh, be nice!
Andy
I haven’t got a clue
0.31 or 0.41??
Got letter saying about open offer and make sure had enough cash in account to purchase, what happen to exist shares I had if not to take any action, anyone can help as 1st time seen that
Thanks
BIgmj
LOL
Hi Guys, as most of you know, I have a huge position here and am seriously in the red, however I have met with Eytan (virtually) and have decided to not only take up my full allocation in the OO, I have also applied for a very large extra amount. I can’t say I am happy with the performance of my investment but do believe the current SP to be very cheap, like every investment there is risk but I am happy the risk reward is worth it under Eytan’s stewardship
There is nothing factually incorrect about the $20 number BPC. But it is nothing more than a goal for average lifting costs per barrel once Saffron is well into development and total production is 2500/d.
But you are interpreting it as a current lifting cost, as if the old low output wells are as efficient as future S2 wells. The CERP results demonstrate they are not, and the costs and royalties I referred to are cash costs, not accounting/profitability distortions (they do not include capex/depreciation/tax) so they are a fair comparison.
ishty: you will need to phone your broker/platform. provide monday. They probably haven't updated systems since the OO extension.
Bohemia: Please stop this!!!!! I quote from actual recent BPC sources. CERP accounts ie PBT, are irrelevant. Take your case to BPC and not me. As a shorter you are trying to make a case to help your cause based on not providing the whole picture and questioning my sources (BPC RNSs) as wrong.
Starchild
Anyone else having issues subscribing to the open offer.
Interactive Investor saying offer is closed.
Will have to call them tomorrow.
I don’t have time for a lengthy reply this morning but do take a look at Columbus’ 2019 results. https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/document-api-images-live.ch.gov.uk/docs/gccGd262m8_jbqaUbay_bgqR73qRqORhzEceo3RVixQ/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAWRGBDBV3IEFIB6UV%2F20210516%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20210516T081131Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEJD%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FwEaCWV1LXdlc3QtMiJGMEQCIBvm6Mv5FdRdbAnfg4W15oqp7qa7GYa7gDHVA3ZXpcKbAiBUZLA62XqRe8SqpVFPQBMihyHtbty3eZOcqZdUqJNYeiq0AwgoEAMaDDQ0OTIyOTAzMjgyMiIMNCOEb6UCUcilKye8KpEDeHFhBuw5uwiNoRM9LupDIRk1Or8TT%2Fah8DAd8YsvaNP%2BLFqPfTUjPXzuX1QVf7UPb9zcma%2F552jLSZ6NhcjUCfCNbIpGQjBJ69PSA3N00vyldzMvD915trxEVZpfromKFLiri%2B67BlhnJhHCNeWUaJPAfzWgP5snIZrA7c6y%2FlNiduD%2F%2F5hVTAwQtZlMVMTyo9PAbho9CW2DDpF7ochWdjo0rIGbuMvMt8div2wmYdrlRu08SOo19%2FuzU1Rk%2BUYih0je9och8J9hrHhIJbUJNfbex0Zziqhd9aC3wbH0xnYI4Ry0hsSGVS3dlCgxqjtwHFhNbYuRsMT3sc6G0PGqpdR82XRB0i8jNv%2B6REyU%2BZCNXrIiP3wwr%2FykomOesyhQr1wOR8MYNLazxea09l8t0cSp4lX3eIPSBF8i4Uxejj5KKfX1nPRs7cCoLGdvYSYtW7DDa%2BmRrWxfetABs5sEI%2Fky%2BhcwnB9eNv%2FJcSyBBrzHdttboeOSWpcx35%2FDTHGKuYReI%2Fzz1rziqwCkG4vHGrkw5Y6DhQY67AGFTj9z%2FTxz7ManxInC5qIbyE1HkXGv5jZCEhuYNNLRm0vHeVehz4ClTZo7G5WN%2BluBwDWf8PvZhL4k5e6ziF%2Fxu8cev%2BMvAsWZG9inJhc7gjNfyb%2FuX4%2FOp2hwKJAqHru3G3ltbByqSopLPy55eD9qM3Lk2Df8pt%2BzyCTSRR%2FfwpHP6GkR3KH7h2FJnjQrRwzzmg9xiryDvWnRNGfRRgJJ745N3QzO5uj16r0yS%2FtpmQsS02GEO4PDAKh0xzVbw77O%2FjjZliZobxk0JrP5jh%2FIJcJHYkMFbH4BMRr5b5Yka7UcZZjzHYrr0k1nwQ%3D%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22companies_house_document.pdf%22&X-Amz-Signature=41b38006899cab85359771c02243e565bdfe95eb52c63846c96722dbe3cd2897
From the table on p17, you can quickly work out that royalties were 28% and extraction costs were $27 per barrel (when the wells were yielding more oil).
The $20 you sourced is a 2021 aspiration once 80% of the oil is coming from 10 brand new, very production new Saffron wells. It is not the current figure for running over 100 old wells.
Royalties are not zero, opex is not (and never has been) $20/b so your interpretation cannot be correct.
Bloody iPhones - Bohemia - The net backs at the SWP Trinidad are very different than Goudron….,
Do keep up, there’s a good troll…
Toodlepip x
I base many of my opinions on official corporate updates, interviews and pro-analysts’ reports.
$3m/yr free cash?
1. Bohemia, even though you admit to currently shorting BPC, let’s get this issue put to bed once and for all. You quoted CERP accounts to make a case BPC does not make $3m/yr in free cashflow. Neither BPC nor I have stated the company is making $3m/yr profit before tax. PBT is a different metric and includes ALL expenditure.
2. Key RNS: … ‘At a US$60/b, 500 bopd of stable production results in NET annual operating cashflows to BPC of c$3m…….’ Source https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/ry4o93r
3. BPC has stated, ‘…extraction cost of <$20 per barrel….’. Source RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w0y5j8x . $20/b has also been used in various presentations. Please DYOR.
4. How much of this $20 is included in the $4m/yr G&A (eg T+T payroll) we don’t know. I’m assuming zero. Hence 360 days x 500boe/day x $40 ($60 PoO - $20 costs) = > $7m
5. On 1/1/21 the gov increased the special petroleum tax threshold. Prior to then, CERP (and BPC since merger) had to pay an extra 18% when PoO sales were between $50 - $75/b.
6. BPC is sitting on $85m in gross tax credits. Royalties are payable from $1/b+, but until the annual accounts are published we don’t know the exact figure.
7. BPC has recently stated cost reductions of 20-30%. If the $4m G&A is reduced by $1m (25%), operating cashflows will increase from $3m to $4m.
Bottom line: case PROVEN. End of debate. If you believe the BoD are misleading us, I suggest you take it up with them.
Antha: You are an ex-holder and asked …. ‘ Please explain to the faithful what the implications are (financial, drilling, share price, etc) if the OO falls short and less than £5m is raised….’
8. My post yesterday and on 12/5 04:53am made a case that IF the OO/Placing totals < £5m, there are possible alternatives to retire legacy debts in full or in part using shares. This will save cash. However, IMO I don’t think it will be <£5m.
9. I do not have the time nor inclination to opine on every eventuality. For example, an ET invasion, a cold fusion invention, or Venezuela invading Trinidad tomorrow as an excuse to get hold of BPC’s valuable oil assets.
LLL: …. I believe you are an ex-shareholder and asked……………..‘ Are you are seriously suggesting that Stephen Bizzell is more loyal to BPC than his own company?....’
10. NO. I did not state this. I am pleased he is on the BoD based on his experience and repour with Simon/Eytan which historically made them millions. He will wear 3 hats: a BoD member, a mega shareholder and lender. The only conflict of interest arises IF IF IF things go very very badly, in which case (for obvious reasons) we are better off he is on the BoD rather than BPC owing money to a 3rd party.
IMHO. DYOR. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.
The UK Corporate Governance Code advises that the `board should include an appropriate combination of executive and non executive [and in particular, independent non executives] directors such that no one individual or small group of individuals dominates the boards decision making '.
With the appointment of Robert Riley, Stephen Bizzell and Simon Potter one might describe the board as incestuous. I fully accept their credentials but not their independence.
Bohemia - The net backs at the SWP Trinidad are very different than Goudron….,
Do keep you there’s a good troll…
Toodlepip x
Good Luck here SC - you’ve certainly put in the hard yards in research.
As per our DMs, I’ve been out since the P1 debacle but sincerely hope it comes good for LTH from BPC & CERP.
and the trolling continues - BL@@D@ H@LL
*facepalm*
Every morning Star, I think you dig unnecessary holes to allow people to push you into.
(._.)
Starchild - " IMO, Stephen joining the BoD is to help steer BPC to success, rather than to ensure his company gets paid! A director’s loyalty is to the company and its shareholders. "
You are seriously suggesting that Stephen Bizzell is more loyal to BPC than his own company?
SC, you have not PROVED the BPC is generating $3m after G&A pre capex. You have merely stated without evidence that they earn $40/barrel proof at $60 Brent and then work that through to the bottom line. That is known as garbage in, garbage out.
Not only is it unproven, it is nonsensical. Here are TXP’s results from this week. $21 netback per barrel. Are you telling me BPC’s barrels are nearly twice as profitable? https://www.investegate.co.uk/touchstone-explrtn.--txp-/rns/first-quarter-2021-results/202105130703545139Y/
And here are Columbus’ own results in the past. H1 2019: 561b/d at $57 Brent ... loss-making. H2 2018: 485b/d at $61 Brent ... loss-making. What can have changed since then to make BPC highly profitable in the same production/price circumstances? https://www.investegate.co.uk/columbus-energy-res--cerp-/rns/half-year-report/201909040700081141L/
Great research Starchild.
We just need positive oo/ri and some good oil findsand sorted. Risky but as you say, sp priced low atm.