focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Clued
My purely personal view is there will still be some value attached to BPs stake.
I assume politicians and media,will crusade against BP ,but the amount of money there is bigger than some not very small countries have,so think BP will come out one day with something..
Unless the west put Putin into a position of retaliation if west take Russian assets in the west.
It’s a big game of poker, with unfortunately many lives at stake
Mark, I realise you've headed away for the day, but per your "BP's reserves currently lack depth due to Rosneft ' exit ' at 8.7 years at present but Rosneft is a write-down not write-off. Rosneft dividends for BP are still being paid and held on account. Wars come and go. Companies are more perpetual. I expect BP's near $24B stake - excluding dividends $6B - to return in value sometime in the next few years."
do others think these Rosneft dividends and investment will populate BP's A/C's again, as that would really add to its value ecen in a few years time ?
Hi WeirdPal
I fully respect your decision to sell. On this board there are a number of contributors who's opinion and analysis I totally respect and take on board and you are definitely one of them.
Out for the rest of the day now.
Have a great day.
Mark
Buenos dìas meoryou
Espero que estés bien
I hope you are having a marvellous time in Spain and wish you well for the rest of holiday.
I could not agree more with your last post. These are very interesting times to be a BP shareholder. In regard to those selling recently, the saying goes that ' taking a profit is never wrong ' and depending on individual circumstances that may be the case but if you are to reinvest your funds elsewhere I honestly can not see a better sector to be invested in going forward and out of that sector the possible rewards of being a BP shareholder, for all the reasons my previous post outlined and more ( Auchincloss confident of $9-$10B pa from growth engine sectors ) makes me confident to hold.
Anyway enough of me for now.
Adiós amigo.
Even though I sold all of my position on Friday - I agree with MarkGo - fundamentals here remain strong and I wouldnt be worried if I was a shareholder. If OPEC maintains cuts this year will be another strong one, combined with more tempered language from Murray the bp investment proposition could turn on its head
It's me again.
Last hog of the board today I promise.
On a down day, I want to finish today with some positives.
Peak season is just six weeks away Oil fundementals and price remain strong @ $90ish. So along with many other oilers, BP is refilling the cash tank.
BP has shifted its energy transition strategy to a more "pragmatic" approach with a renewed focus on Oil & Gas and shareholder distributions up from 60% to 80% of surplus cash to shareholders.
With this surplus cash payout raised to 80%, I see BP offering up to 12% total yield in dividend and buybacks for 2024 and an 11% annualized yield through to 2028 with its peers offering 9%.
BP's reserves currently lack depth due to Rosneft ' exit ' at 8.7 years at present but Rosneft is a write-down not write-off. Rosneft dividends for BP are still being paid and held on account. Wars come and go. Companies are more perpetual. I expect BP's near $24B stake - excluding dividends $6B - to return in value sometime in the next few years.
BP remains at a 45% discount to its peers.
Possibility, if not probability, of acquisition or merger.
So, all in all, I see BP offering me one of best current investment opportunities based on risk/reward profile in the industry,
Good luck all.
Mark
Morning Mark
All fine here in Spain, a little to warm so enjoying the shade.
Was having a little think.
Last week or two several on here sold, which is a decision based for each individual on a lot of variables,entry price ,need for cash etc.
However even at a reasonable sp by recent history,there were plenty of buyers to take the other side of the trade.( obviously part of that is due to the buybacks)
There are more headlines now than for a while about investing in energy.
I would suspect the message you would get if asking for advice on diversifying your shares would currently be are you in energy.
That’s a different message from the last 3 years.
Even saw someone say energy was the new hedge against inflation or recession,as people still need oil.
Interesting times.
Ps hope you also are well
Morning meoryou, I hope all's well with you.
Darkresh - with respect- It is totally acceptable and you are fully entitled to disagree with my opinion. You seem to miss the point in your post. Yes, the Opec+ cartel are currently cutting production- mainly KSA to support the price of oil - during this short term period of various headwinds as I explained in my previous post.
Oil demand is at record highs and will continue to grow. Regardless of recent weeks inventory builds, global oil inventories have barely built from the beginning of the year - a period when usually demand is low and builds are high -and in the coming months as we move into peak season global inventories will reach record lows, Summer driving season is nearing, US shale growth is slowing, and Opec are fully in control and will manage the situation in the short tetm aware of possibilities such as releases from the strategic reserve. They will wind down the cuts into growing demand and once this has been achieved attention will be on maximum global capacity which is surprising Limited..
While the world will never run out of oil, extraction, production and supply will become more challenging. With Africa and Asia going through their own industrial revolution peak oil demand will be decades away whereas supply is another story. A lack of exploration over the past decade means there will be a lag between recent years exploration and actual increased supply. That lack of previous exploration will fuel the price of oil over the next few years or at least that is what I'm betting on that oil will recover from the short term to be higher for longer. An average of brent $90 to $100 until year end 2025 should push BP beyond my price target.
In regard to debt, I agree with meoryou's analysis.
Have a good day.
Mark
Darkesh
My take was that net debt only increased due to expenses being front end loaded in the fiscal year.
Ie mainly a build in working capital which will at least partly unwind during the year.
I think they are very sure of their cash flow as they increased the distribution of excess capital to 80% from 60%.
As far as oil price is concerned a price above $100 is bad in the long run as it encourages more replacement by renewables .
I’m sure if I got it wrong someone will tell me
The Opec countries are suppressing their oil production and ultimately they will control the price. They have also stated their target is below $100. So I totally disagree with your take on the situation. BP have also stated they have increased their Net debt, which in an environment of decent oil prices is not good.
Morning all
As interesting as the current geopolitical theatre is at the moment and the short term focus on the implications for the price of oil and therefore oil companies, the geoeopolitical risks should not distract everyone from what's happening for the next few years to come which will see a global oil structural supply deficit.
Oil market fundamentals this year have been healthy, but we are entering a short-term lull due to global refinery maintenance in April coupled with stretched financial positioning means that the headwinds are building for oil prices. I expect to see inventory builds continuing over the next few weeks coupled with the weakness in refining margins that will pull back oil in the short term.
However, this short term pull back should not distract from what is to come later this year. I think as oil pulls back in the near term, opportunistic investors and traders will continue to bet on higher oil prices going year end and 2025 being aware of the deficit data.
The structural supply deficit has been commented on by a number of CEOs of various oil companies. When this prediction becomes fact and materialises I expect oil equities including BP will be much higher than today. I would not be surprised to see the share price fall in the short term before building into year end and 2025. Without unforeseeable events, I would be disappointed not to see BP's share price starting with a 7 by year end 2025.
Have a wonderful day all.
Mark