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Breaking even? No chance. Last advised cash production costs (Q4 23) were $27.3, this doesn't take into account all the indirect overheads and financing costs, total cost will be nearer $40 all in.
Ferro vanadium 80% spot in china is at 30.3, in US at 27-27.5, in EU at 26.25. We're just about breaking even though debt financing is mounting pressure.
Ukraine estimates min $500bn and it's safe to say that will double. Rough estimate of steel in that effort is 3.5 million metric ton. This is expected to drive steel and all supporting commodity costs significantly.
Ukraine rebuild?estimates varey from a low $500 billion,to $800 billion.
that's some figure.
Cheer up chaps!! Ukraine has been demolished and is going to need rebuilding?
I hear the contracts are being handed out as we speak..
Yup ... lots of factors... and the west's general economic malaise is not helping.... no sign yet of an economic boom again. Needs a lot of infrastructure growth to drive it
Or a few big flow battery orders needing electrolyte .... cannot see Belco being anything but shut down at the current rate
Direct costs come out in that range yes but you can't attribute a gross margin multiplier of 6-10 when there are now such large indirect costs, in particular financing on debt.
$40/kgV would turn the outlook on its head sure but the risk is mounting all the whilst the vanadium price is so much lower than that and with the issues around SPR/Acacia alongside. There are no signs of any near term improvement in prices either, in fact European prices are heading back to the bottom we saw in December.
Cheers Faramog. At least there may be some hope. Think I'll close the drawer and keep an eye on the SP for the time being. Assume there are probably quite a few in the same boat. Luckily I'm in no huge rush to sell so can sit on these til better times.
GLA
What will precipitate a 44% rise in vanadium prices when China's property market is undergoing one of its worst slumps in modern history? Not VRFBs. Question is whether BMN can hang on until sentiment there China, but that's not a race it's likely to win.
Could BMN pivot to selling electrolyte at full capacity. No. It's struggling to get one or two customers to place orders. Problem being, China has its own supply and VFRFB uptake is almost non-existent outside of that region.
Good .... what would it take ....
Arguably the range of Costs are around $26.5-28
A BMN attributable production out of 5,000mtv of 75% of that (half of Vanchem will ultimately be SPR's) gives circa 3,750mtv
An av sale range of $40-$45 gives a margin range of $45m-$70m
A PE range of 6-10 (historically low in mining) gives a target price range of 8.0p - 20.5p (less when you take any other/royalty costs off)
As Craig said in a previous IM, at $40+ the company literally prints money
So yes... so long as there is enough cashflow to keep going until Vanadium pricing rises substantially again ... every change of 14p and more
Hey folks, hope everyone is behaving themselves! :-)
I've not been paying attention to this share for some time and obviously disappointed with the SP. So just a quick question, what are the odds of getting back to 14p (break even for me) and any timeline?
Again, totally out of the loop on this and holding/hoping.
Cheers
@cat1 .. no .... V price
Type? Lithium, VFRB, Sodium or Fe
Https://constructionreviewonline.com/construction-news/south-africa/red-sands-africas-largest-standalone-battery-energy-storage-system-coming-to-south-africa/#:~:text=The%20Red%20Sands%20project%20will%20be%20built%20on,capabilities%20of%20the%20project%E2%80%99s%20batteries%20can%20be%20utilized.
https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2024/uk-funds-africas-largest-battery-storage-system-in-south-africa/
V1per I sold out in my ISA recently, still have a holding in my pension
wa ʿalaykumu s-salam *****essential luton chat ⛔️
Not ramming anything just a polite welcome from your neck of the woods
Grisly I see enough of that in everyday life in the UK without having it rammed down my throat on here ffs.
When did you sell razor?
Well Goatman 49K is better than nothing, I'm giving CC a few RNSs to restore my confidence. I've kept a small holding here after making sizeable losses. I've posted on some other shares recently, just OCTP, PHE and MIRI, maybe I'll see some of you guys there if you have any interest. I'm sure one of these days I might pick a winner. Here's hoping anyway
Just looked at the most recent set of accounts at Companies House. Fixed assets almost 100% depreciation which would imply a lack of investment in the business in recent times. Modest profit in the year just 49k. Hope BMN works out for you fella.
Lindon,
Take off the last 3 letters of my avatar and Google ...... - don't want to get criticised for non BMN 'stuff'.
sammy - I did !!!
GLA
Happy Birthday MIKINAMAN, I have an educational interest in —- and was wondering if you happen to have any type of involvement with students from Trafalgar School - which I think is in your local area? Apologies and no probs if that’s not the case.
Happy birthday 🎂 enjoy 👍🍻
That's 'cos it's my birthday today !!!!!
GLA
Noise !