Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
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This section from the y/e report summarises why!
Ameriabank is a leading franchise in the local market - #1 by loans and #2 by deposits - and is the "top-of-mind" banking brand in Armenia, with further upside to grow, especially in the retail and SME segments, leveraging the Group's experience and know-how in digitalisation, payments, and customer experience. I believe this acquisition, which was approved by the shareholders on March 14th, is a great opportunity for the Group to increase scale and unlock further growth. We are set to acquire Ameriabank with our surplus capital, with no dilution for shareholders, and it is expected to be immediately earnings enhancing with an ROE uplift. Importantly, our dividend and capital distribution policy and payout ratio of 30-50% will not change. Considering the Group's strong performance during 2023 and robust capital and liquidity positions, the Board intends to recommend, at the 2024 Annual General Meeting, a final dividend for 2023 of GEL 4.94 per share, making a total dividend for 2023 of GEL 8.00 per share. This is a 5% increase on the dividend for 2022 - a year boosted by significant one-offs and FX income which broadly normalised in 2023. In addition, the Board has also approved an extension of the buyback and cancellation programme by an additional GEL 100 million. This represents an overall dividend and share buyback pay-out ratio for the year ended 31 December 2023 of 37% (2022: 37%).
To be expected, but holding well - still at £50, which we'd have been delighted with reaching only a few weeks ago. Will be interesting to see if positive movement following the investors zoom call at 2pm, which I will try and join if I have time.
The summary all looks very positive to me - maintaining dividend growth, and more share buyback in 2024, all whilst funding Ameribank acquisition which will boost revenue and profits after an already stellar couple of years.
Thanks Rheinmetal (now there's a share I wish I'd jumped on a month ago....). It feels like I'm a bit late to the party with this one - I managed to get into Vistry a few weeks ago and they look like they have some really good potential (if you don't know too much about them watch this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_W60Cmy3tbU&t=52s - It's an hour and a half long but gives a real in depth expose of what Vistry do). I may dip my toe in with BGEO - but am wary of catching this one a bit too late....
Revenue forecast is 659M apparently, so that's the ballpark to look at, albeit the Nov 23 results were very slightly below forecast and that certainly didn't hurt the continuing share price growth!
I may well be wrong, but the share price movement has been quite interesting this week - moving a pound or so down or up from opening prices intra day, but usually returning to more or less the opening price at the end of each day. Strikes me as possibly MMs trying to stimulate some share sales ahead of results? I'm holding since 2700p and planning on holding for the next few years. My target is 7500p in 12 months time, with good dividends maintained in the meantime. GLA DYOR etc.
What are your expectations?? Do results have to be bombastic to boost the SP?
When's the full year report and dividend declaration? I had it down as end of feb...
Might break 60 before too long...
Crazy relentless growth from this share. Definitely a gem that few seem to talk about.
Told a friend about this one a few weeks ago and he bought in. (I didn't recommend it, just highlighted it).
Anthony in particular driving it?
Any reasoned arguments welcomed, but you haven't presented any. Looks like the market disagrees with your valuation also.
Nothing said on these boards will change any share price and the suggestion that someone with a positive or a negative comment can do that is nonsense
You just cannot handle a slightly negative comment about a share that you recently bought
Right.... but we're not just talking about Georgia are we? BGEO is buying The largest bank in Armenia, which itself has a similar GDP per capita as Georgia, so the price is adjusting upwards to allow for this.
There's also more to it than just GDP of the country. Georgia is a completely different prospect to Kazakhstan and recently being accepted as a candidate for EU membership means BGEO is rightly on what will be a long upward trajectory. Hence the difference in how they are valued.
Also i was just pointing out that you do this a lot... try to get people to buy in to your, often falling, investments.
Damofarl
The comment was directed at manphibian and not you
He is obviously not very keen on any alternative view on BGEO
Asartara; Who got upset? Not me.
I'm a big fan of disprate views, and a fan of both the banks you mention (amongst others).
I personally don't think your view (on BGEO) is that alternative.
I did not say that BGEO was not good value
Just saying that there are other very good value banks out there and BGEO has become relatively expensive when compared to these other banks
For example both BGEO and Halyk have about 35% of their domestic markets
But the Kazakhstan GDP is about 8x the size of the Georgia GDP
And yet the Halyk market cap is less than 2x the BGEO market cap
And the forecast PE is less than 3
Or if you are looking at only UK banks, STB is on a forecast PE of less than 3 and a price to book of less than 0.4
BGEO has a price to book now of 1.4
A forum is a place for all views so no need for anyone to get upset if there is an occasional alternative view
Ethical; agree your points on BGEO and CGEO both of which I hold.
Whilst BGEO is a dominant fish in a small pond, ergo how much can they 'grow' there, I see this purchase as BGEO leveraging their capabilities into being a regional powerhouse, and as such there is more growth to come from BGEO.
The growth/crystallisation of value in CGEO will, in my opinion, be greater ithan BGEO's in the interim, because their other holdings are so unappeciated (currently). Holdings that I calculate back of an envelope style, EXCLUDING BGEO 's contribution, are already yielding the equivalent of around a 6% dividend
My strong opinion is that the pharmacy arm will be floated/spun out in the next 18 months, and like BGEO they will retain a large stake. Ultimately, I see CGEO morphing from a private equity style house into an investment trust, holding sizeable influencing holdings in a plethora of companies.
Both have been great to me, and both have more to offer. I for one, am also heavy Georgia, but I will remain so, as Georgia is not on my mind, Georgia, to me, has been kind.
Asartara; quality is rarely cheap. This is quality AND cheap.
A quick scan through your posting history shows you constantly go in to the boards of rival companies to those that you're invested in, saying they're overpriced compared to the one you own, which you mention.
Pretty transparent, and pretty lame.
Be better.
As for this share price, after completing a takeover of another bank for cash, revenues will soar, as will the shareprice here.
Maybe worry about your own investments.
This is starting to look quite expensive now when compared to other value banks such as STB and Halyk which are both on a forecast PE of less than 3
Not far off the £50 mark now. It wouldn't surprise me to see a share split coming soon. GLA
Agreed, Georgia is a beautiful country. The older folks have that Soviet stern faces, but the moment you smile at them they break out into broad smiles too, and are so hospitable. The only negative is their ridiculously dangerous macho driving! I’ve been twice, and also a road trip round Armenia which is beautiful too. 👍
If they own 20% of a £2bn company - thats makes up 80% of cgeo market cap...alongside geo it has some very nice portfolio companies with dominant positions in Georgia (though its a very small market). given the weighting of BGEO now in my portfolio i'm a tad over exposed to Georgia - lovely country if you ever have the chance to visit.
Interesting comment re: CGEO, although I'm not sure I follow your comment about growth - CGEO has risen 44.64% over the past year, versus CGEO rising 47.50% in the past year - v v similar growth in percentage terms.
I also like the look of CGEO, particularly if you haven't already bought in to BGEO. CGEO holds a 20%-ish stake in the Bank of Georgia and has risen at nowhere near the same rate. Results are also out this Thursday which I expect to be pretty decent.