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Approx 5 weeks to December Results RNS. The AGM Statement on trading was positive, which is again reflected in the general wording of this latest acquisition update to the market. I believe what the Company says in December will finally put to bed the utter nonsense bleated repeatedly here in the Summer, about little growth in the Company and acquisitions being a distraction. Not long to wait.
11th December rapidly approaching. We already know from the recent Trading Update……
“Revenue and adjusted operating profit expected to increase by c.13%, with a good mix of organic and acquired growth”
Positive expectations set then, that the Company’s strategy is working well and they are delivering on their promises. It will be interesting to see the detail and of course the future outlook. Not long to wait.
Little growth - errrr nope
Acquisitions are a distraction - errrr nope
“Our ambition is to maintain this growth track record with a medium-term revenue target of £200m”
Congratulations to BEG on delivering on their strategy. Roll on February and a re-rate of the SP in the coming months.
Looks positive
Trying to work out how a 10% increase in adjusted profits translates to a 4.5% increase in diluted adjusted EPS though. Can't all be increased corporation tax.
Those transaction costs are pretty hefty to say the least.
Updated research note out from ED - revenues ests go up , adj profit and 175p fair value unchanged
Costs rise was impacted by new UK corporate tax rate covering whole period, plus investment in IT and recruitment/salary rises . Management confident in outlook.
Free access to the research here, plus audio summary:
https://equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/a-positive-outlook-as-insolvency-volumes-build
Much heralded re-rate in share price by Blinkered - errr nope!
Jerry - I've given up trying to understand their re-work of the real drop in statutory profit to polish the numbers - no doubt BEG are experts in "number-smithing", which incidentally is nothing compared to the ability of a certain poster on this board to turn something you say into something else ;-)
FTSE - yet again another hilarious post and frankly, totally fabricated in an attempt to gloss over that you’ve been proven wrong and cannot bring yourself to admit that. Deja vu.
Up until the arrival of todays results, I have never once mentioned a re-rate, or predicted a rising SP. In fact if you look back to September (which you won’t), you will find that I agreed the SP was disappointing - but so were / are many AIM shares due to market conditions and so not at all unique to BEG. So to suggest that I have “heralded a re-rate in the share price” is clearly utter nonsense.
As for “turning something you say into something else”, we already had that conversation, where I pointed out I have only ever quoted directly from your posts ie. more nonsense.
Maybe you too will now need to resort to reporting posts to cover up that you’ve got it wrong and cannot admit that. Embarrassing really.
Chelsea,
What’s clear is with every post you are very personal in your attack to anyone that even vaguely questions the BEG strategy. Some even might say you are a ramper but you certainly like to control the subtext on the board. You have a habit of seeking to rile people as you continually use out of context comments in each post. You drove one valid poster away but as long as I am invested in BEG I’m here to stay.
To say that AIM is under performing on average may be true but it tends to be young, higher growth companies in developing markets with above average debt in a high interest environment. If BEG share price can’t perform with 13% TO growth as principally an administrator when administrations are increasing - tell me, why do you think this is near 3 year lows?!
* Fat fingers-I meant 2 year lows before that becomes the next red rag.
Never personal, always factual.
If you don’t understand why scores of companies have lost value across the last couple of years, I’d suggest investing probably isn’t for you. And if you remain invested in companies where you’re not underwater (as you have confirmed) but openly admit you don’t believe in their strategy (and therefore management), that’s no different to backing a horse that you believe has absolutely no chance of winning a race! Odd. Very odd.
Congratulations Begbies on another non-distracting acquisition!
Humour me Blinkered......tell me specifically why BEG share price is not reflecting its fundamentals!
Otherwise, it'll just confirm you as another keyboard warrior, all chat no substance.
At least I'm prepared to make some suggestions - always to encourage constructive debate....but appreciate intelects & motives may vary on these boards.
Not interested in pampering you FTSE. If you don’t realise by now that it’s mostly non-specific to BEG, or indeed any other individual company, regardless of their service provision, you’re in deep do-do and risking losing lots of your money. Perhaps that has already happened elsewhere but I do hope not.
Try switching on the TV, the radio, read a newspaper maybe. It’s all in there and has been for many months.
There is no debate as to whether insolvencies (and stress on companies) will increase. The question is, are Begbies earning enough from the situation. The results were underwhelming frankly. They keep buying these non core companies to increase earnings, which is telling in its self. Todays property auction company is a head scratcher as, many analysts are not predicting a crash in property (which is the scenario where auction services would increase). On a separate note, Auction technology plc, a company that profits from insolvency auctions is performing badly.
All these acquisitions are diluting shareholders one way or another, is this going to be a another Marlowe? - Mind you, with Marlowe at least there was a ride significantly higher before the crash.
What I would have liked to have read was that acquisitions were finished, organic earnings were booming, with PBT following, and the company was going to buy back all those shares printed in the last 12 months. Yes to be fair the interim dividend has increased, but the yield alone is not enough to hold this, sp growth seems to be lacking for reasons I have mentioned. Its a hold from me. Wont be adding unless we go sub £1. Chart looking weak IMO. Next stop £1.03.
Some broker views I found..
Begbies Traynor's strong 1H indicates momentum is continuing across the business, and in the insolvency division in particular, Shore Capital analysts Jamie Murray and Vivek Raja say in a note. U.K. corporate insolvency volumes in the 12 months ended Oct. 30 rose to more than 41% versus the comparable prepandemic period with the business recovery, financial advisory and property services consultancy keeping its market-leading position in the insolvency market, the analysts say. "As U.K. corporate distress levels rise, the outlook for Begbies is positive given its earnings bias, around 70% of income, towards countercyclical and defensive activities,"
Begbies - Canaccord Genuity cuts PT to 175p from 183p
Dartron - curious as to why you pasted in those broker views, given they are clearly at odds with the view you have set down above them?
Is it simply that you don’t believe them?
Its rare for a stock to hit a broker target, and as you eluded to, many small caps have upside of 100%, but we are just not seeing valuations meet them. I think Shore capital is the house broker (judging from the 'upbeat only' sentiment). I thought the Canoccord one was more interesting that they have reduced their target. This tallies with an article that was in IC issue 41, where the consensus was that earnings would not grow for BEG or FRP until late 2024. Regarding broker targets, given my pf of 20 or so stocks, all with upside, BEG does not stand out, in fact it is very near bottom of the group, and only hanging on because logic dictates this should do well, but proof is yet to materialise. Finally, I have no agenda. Im happy to post any news I find for or against. It all helps. I am getting it off the feed in trading view which is a real hidden gem, it aggregates more news than this site does.
Final comment, I will read the equity development research and watch the presentation to better understand the prospects here. Though I think I have the jist of it already.
Looks like IC have issued a new article on BEG today. The title is Begbies Traynor finally benefits from the insolvency lag
Higher-margin work is now in prospect. It is still rated a buy.
I will not post the article as it is behind a pay wall for a reason (my subs went up recently!!).
Dartron,
Thank you for your balanced posts. It is as useful to know why folks might not be buying as it is why they might want to.
As for their acquisitions, I do also have some concerns about this too. However they do generally seem to be paying a lower multiple of profits than BEG is trading at, so that reassures me somewhat.
Bob on Dartron.
The positive and neutral IC article was actually published yesterday and I saw it without it being hidden behind a paywall. They don’t appear to believe acquisitions are a distraction either, or they would surely have mentioned it.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/12/11/begbies-traynor-finally-benefits-from-the-insolvency-lag/
In fact they are very much pro-acquisitions, if those here were to read it.
Chelsea I followed the IC link, and it is behind a paywall for me.
Try a Google search on a few of the key words from the link. Can’t be sure it will work but did for me.
I think it is supposed to be behind a pay wall, but it can probably be circumvented. Why else would I need a subscription.
I am happy to paraphrase after reading, but very busy today. Same with the results video.
To save you the trouble Dartron, here’s what IC have to say about M&A activity:
“The three businesses acquired since the beginning of the financial year are trading in line with expectations and have increased the breadth of the group’s service offering while strengthening its existing regional presence. M&A aside, the group recorded a creditable 9 per cent organic revenue growth rate, achieved despite a quieter market for its advisory teams.
Management anticipates further growth in insolvency activity and a broadly consistent second half for financial advisory. Property advisory and transactional service volumes also provide cause for encouragement. The expanded “breadth” is also significant from an investment angle in that it acts as a bulwark against potential overexposure to any one business area.”
Clearly not a distraction in their view and in fact the exact opposite.