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The bottom price formation, began on 6/12/23, and there has been 14 days of high volume, and 7 days of very low volume. This volume behaviour is different from the previous volume pattern, and seems to point toward smart money taking a bullish position , in BATS. The Fibonacci 61.8%, target is 2446, and optimistic target 2550, although I suspect the latter, would be a brief one day high.
Stargate, look at BATS/VGOV. It's bearish, this is a small pullback I think. What's your take?
I'm waiting for the pullback to end and swap some BATS to VGOV.
VGOV, medium term trendline appears to be at 17, with strong support leading down to 16.5. The preceding volume pattern from 27/12/23, was volume increasing in the downward direction, the two occasions , showing volume participated in the drop, in equity value. A healthy pullback, ought to be reducing volume, not increasing. Suggest watch the RSI index, for a cross above 50, to buy. However if RSI index crosses back below 50, shortly after, sell. Commentators on VGOV, mentioned a yield, but website shown no yield, so puzzled .
VGOV, disparity index and roc indicator, are showing lows below the previous lows registered under the previous trough, in sp. Also there was a strong blowoff top on 22/12/23, in the YGOV, price, which was in the vicinity of previous year highs, so sp is as high as it is likely to go. Do not put much faith in the trendline at 17 holding, so more likely to head down to support at 16.5.
Yes, but put the BATS/VGOV in trading view. It's bearish, implying a drop in BATS relative to VGOV.
Yes VGOV has a yeild. If you use trading view you'll see the "D" on the chart.
BATS/VGOV:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BATS/hqJO8Hmd-BATS-VGOV-Pullback-on-Bearish-Trend-or-Reversal/
This is what I mean. If rates drop VGOV will shoot up, as it's a bond ETF. I expect a pullback though and I'm using a MACD.
The same Posters on ADVFN Green Box is a Wonderful thing
Viewed the BATS/VGOV, chart which shows the macd has crossed above the ma. Probably safest to assume P on BT, rather than reversal, looking at previous price action, however, previous price action in similar situations , usually results in 50-60% retracement. Also overhead supply is at 152, so there is still room for the chart to rise toward 152. Your rates drop scenario has been undermined, by the recent USA , employment stat, increase. The crucial thing is to give BATS/GOV, time to finish it's rise, since the rate reduction premise, has been postponed, by those employment stats. Not surprisingly the USA, dollar has risen, with negative effect on gold related equities.
BATS, fell lesser %, than VGOV today, so relative strength in BATS, favour. The bottom Bollinger band on VGOV, rose in time with the recent VGOV, peak. Subsequently the top Bollinger band started to fall, which in previous chart records, usually results in a short term trading range, or in the case of a bearish trend, in a sp, bottom. Ordinarily, a rising sp, trend should be accompanied by a rising top bollinger band, so VGOV, is at least taking a rest from trending, at the present.
Yes rates are rising again, am following daily MACD on BATS/VGOV.
Jobs data are always revised down a huge amount.
USA, inflation stats due, this week on thursday and Friday, which could affect the market view regarding interest rate horizon. Bats , sp pivot is 2367, so if sp, can close above that pivot, can expect line of least line of least resistance is up. Tobacco sector was close to a similar price pivot, when I looked at it . Overall the Bats, indicators RSI, ROC, show positive divergence, with price, which is bullish .
Tobacco sector, has broken up above price pivot of 26998 today, so line of least resistance is upward . Falling down trend line in the Tobacco sector chart, is slightly below 28,000, and there is overhead supply at 28,000, from previous trading. Expect resistance to occur at or near 28,000, with maybe some retracement .
Just read that an American economist ,Gary Shilling, is forecasting a S&P, drop of 30%, and that interest rates will not drop until summer. He is keen on gilts, presumably American. My own reading of breadth indicators, such as the McLellan, and new 50 week highs/lows, is a negative divergence, where the indexes, are heading up, while the indicators are going down. This breadth divergence has been in place, since December 2023. Yet to see, if nasdaq, can rise above its recent high.
Well, resistance is 2390, the gap from DEC 6th is still unfilled.
Doesn't look strong here atm.
USA , thursday inflation data , 0.3%, instead of market expectation of 0.2%. Markets, do not react well to negative stats, so together with the previous negative employment stats, it is looking like the market initial expectation of first fed, rate reduction , in March 2024, is now unlikely.
Price action today has been contained within the range of the doji, Japanese candlestick day of 8/1/24. The doji, candlestick day, range of high 2379.5, and low 2334, can be treated as the pivots, to determine which direction BATS, will head on a closing price basis. Disparity index is dropping, but still above the crucial zero line. No importance should be given to intraday breaches of the pivot high or low.
SUK2, reverse ftse100, derivative, crossed above price pivot 367.2, today. Since this is the second pivot break, upward, this appears to be an uptrend, in the reverse derivative of the ftse100, meaning the FTSE100, is in a downtrend today. The SUK2, derivative initial sp, target is 380. The SUK2 ticker downtrend from October 2023, was broken upward, which reinforced the current uptrend, but downtrend in the actual FTSE100. Watch the pivot level of 2334, mentioned in my previous missive, for a close below 2334. At present the tobacco sector has fallen a bigger %, than the FTSE100, a sign of weakness in the sector .
Yes BATS is down against FTSE 100. but it looks like it's got a better relative value?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BATS/SxGy0amn-BATS-VUKE-FTSE100-Time-to-buy-BATS/
The BATS/VUKE, monthly relative monthly chart, requires to develop a monthly heikin ashi price bar, with an upper shadow, to show bullish/upward price action. This is the reverse of what people expect with standard Japanese candlesticks. Without being over optimistic, any higher price target, would be the middle median line, bearing in mind, that the tobacco sector, may well be in a secular decline, due to government regulation. Lower time frames, would be expected to provide a more accurate entry, at some point, weekly/daily.
Stargate, English please
Uk inflation rise, ironically due to the government increase in duty on tobacco. So timeline for interest rate reduction, postponed further, in the UK. The FTSE100, is likely to fall to level of 7417, in my opinion, with the index chart showing a price pivot break downwards, yesterday. My previous missive was a response to a hyperlink chart of the relative ratio between BATS and the FTSE100.
You'd think the news that tobacco (and booze) is driving inflation upwards is good news for BATS. I appreciate partly tax related, but tax is only ever couple to inherent product cost at point of sale. So BATS should be making more money on their respective product sales in light of this news
Only sector riser today , is Medical services, plus 0.92. The medical sector , had 6 fallers, and 3 risers, of the risers the large equity Smith & Nephew, probably accounts for what would otherwise have been a fall for the sector, in sympathy with the other sector falls.