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Bought more at SP 2706 this afternoon to double my holding
as the SP had been continuing to tick up nicely in an ascending channel.
Ex-divi at the end of this month (Sept),
so hopefully SP will continue to rise to my exit sell price.
Always DYOR.
I think the uptick in the recent week is both the upcoming divi and also the FDA PMTA announcement on the 9th September which is expected to be positive for Big Tobacco.
I think the end of day pull backs are profit taking.
GLA
"exit sell price"
Which is what Sigma, may i ask
Pig
P - hopefully lower than where the SP peaks before ex-divi !
I'm not a fan of holding for the divi,
prefer to take a profit and then look for another trade.
Makes life a little more interesting.
Came unstuck with PHNX though,
set my exit to high so had to hold and take the divi.
Waiting and hoping for a suitable SP rise and exit from that one soon.
Same for me with BHP. Wanted £24 for a nice cap gain. But went nowhere near, so taking the divi now.
Still, it equates to 6.5%. SP has dropped (XD) this morning but not by as much.
£24 & i'm out, plus i have the divi.
So may strangly work out better in the end
Pig
Sigma,
bought in a while ago in my ISA at 2,678
Noticed recent(ish) low's with support at 2,620 (1 May) & 2,651 (9 Aug) respectively.
So, may top up if we see 2,650/2,670 area again.....perhaps due to a bad day in the US
18 trading day's until XD
Do you intend topping up with more at all?
Pig
My finger is hovering over the buy button again, but must resist !
I'm very tempted to double holding again, but that carries extra risk with it
I like to keep sufficient funds available for if there is an unexpected and serious drop.
So I can buy my way out of it.
Must remain patient and not greedy, and stick to my planned trade.
If you look at the 30 min time interval TA chart you will see that BATS
is regularly being pulled back down to the lower level of an ascending channel.
That is where the SP is now.
I'd expect support to hold and buying to return.
But you can never be totally sure and support could break,
as was the case earlier this week when RIO fell out of its channel after profit taking.
Reading through your posts you seem to follow similar stragies to me; sell on run up to XD banking on a larger fall that divi.
But sometimes getting 'trapped' & having to take the divi and wait/trade out of it.
Also, searching the chart for 'trends'.
This has been working ok for me for a while now. (tho get caught with BHP.....lol)
The 2,651 i mentioned was 'only' 18 trading day's ago, on 9 Aug. Although the closer we get to XD (30th) the less chance of that being revisited. Unless, as i say, the US has a little correction.
Doesn't seem to want to breech that £27,but if it does i will start to get interested...
Also, do you trade IMB in a similar way?
Pig
Yep, pretty much my strategy.
Use TA to intentify and trade in and out of trends / pattens in stable divi paying shares.
No I haven't traded IMB, still watching it, and waiting for a decent tradeable TA pattern to emerge post-ESG effect.
Didn't expect the SP to still be bouncing around this low so close to ex-divi.
Added to double my holding again this morning at SP 2677.
Current yield is circa 7.8%.
Hoping for a tidy exit before ex-divi, but if I end up holding for the divi so be it.
It's general market jitters from the new NI tax and dividend tax been voted through. Everything has dropped by 1-2%.
I'm going in deep for the divi, and buying more when it drops ex divid for the next one. Might as well keep a lot of my ££ in BATS long term, as it's so undervalued. Wort it drops and I keep reinvesting the div equivalent on the ex div drop, or it goes up to what it should be and the div is cut. Win win!!
The SP has been following the rest of the indices downwards but remember that the FDA PMTA announcement is due today (not sure what time) and this will definitely move the SP one way or another. Consensus is that the big players will be ok so should be good news.
Shaun/Sigma
Agreed.
I just had to add to my holding in the sipp this morning, it really does seem to be yielding too much at present.
At these times of low SP ahd high divi yield,
a little reminder that us humans like doing things that are bad for us:
Smoking, drinking, gambling, eating excessively.
"The number of 18-34 year-olds who smoke increased by 25 per cent in England during the first lockdown, according to a study conducted by the University of Sheffield and UCL published today (25 August 2021) in the journal Addiction."
https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/surge-smoking-among-young-adults-during-lockdown
https://news.sky.com/story/smoking-among-young-people-increased-by-quarter-during-first-covid-19-lockdown-12389992
If vaping takes a hit in the future more people will simply turn back to smoking,
regardless of what their Gov says they should do.
What a complete farce from the FDA! I've just read their press release and from what I understand, Vuse is now technically illegal to market in the US as they have not issued a decision on it, but the FDA have said they will be focusing their enforcement action on flavoured products and those who haven't submitted an application.
That really does leave BATS in limbo. In reality the FDA probably won't go after them whilst they are assessing their application, but markets hate that kind of uncertainty, and I can see the SP drifting downwards whilst this is going on.
I suspect that this will only be a short term blip for a few weeks/months, as it won't effect current income streams, and I'm pretty sure the FDA will end up approving Vuse after they have sifted through all of the scientific research and clinical studies BATS would have submitted in support of their application to prove that it helps people stop smoking fags and doesn't appeal to kids (which is the test the FDA have for approval).
This could even be good news long term in the US, as the FDA have effectively raised the entry requirements for vaping products beyond the means of smaller companies, so there should be more market share up for grabs.
Could still be a bleak few weeks/months though and wouldn't be surprised to see 2400/2500 although I doubt it would stay at those, or even these levels for too long.
Full report here
https://www.fda.gov/tobacco-products/ctp-newsroom/perspective-fdas-progress-tobacco-product-application-review-and-related-enforcement
This is a perfect example of why I refuse to hold any shares long term,
there is always something/someone waiting to interfere with company business and knock the SP for six.
If its not the BOD making stupid expected decisions and RNS announcements,
then its some jobs worth GOV department meddling in company business and peoples free choice to use that business / product or not.
correction:
"If its not the BOD making stupid UNexpected decisions and RNS announcements,"
My opinion the fda review as mentioned stated last 2 yrr.kids in the US were being admitted to hospital with lung problems due to cheap vaping products.
The share price tanked at the time with news of a review, then recovered when it was established it would not effect the big players ie us. As far as I see nothing has changed the big boys will control the action and so it’s all short term headwinds again.
The small players will get wiped out and all their unregulated products leaving a clear path for us to have a decent market share in the action.
There has been a big old battle playing out here between the sells and buys.
and as Chri55 spotted it looked like a big exit/sell off was made by someone this week.
Ex-divi on the 30th Sept,
current yield circa 7.8%,
so all to play for next week.
RSI has been increasing slowly,
so hoping for a cheeky rise and tidy exit from my trade soon.
Would rather not have to hold for another divi having already done so with PHNX!
As an investor in BATS the only thing you should be worried about is the earnings per share. As CHRI55 sells out, this to me is actually a signal that we could be bottoming out here, not that it really matters, as I am just looking forwards to the next divi payout in a few weeks.
Every day the company is reducing the debt and accumulating dividends due to be paid out each quarter. There has quite literally never been a better opportunity to buy BATS shares. Remember that as the share price stagnates or falls, the risk actually decreases!
I said it before that I personally expect the share price to languish until the first quarter of 2022, when hopefully buybacks will be re-started.
Personally I think the management have been making a big mistake focusing on reducing the debt, as I am sure the interest rate on any debt being repaid is considerably less than the current 8% dividend yield currently offered and as the shares are bought back the net debt target will be reached in due course. Interest rates are at a record low, that is not the time to be paying down debt, especially when the shares are the cheapest they have ever been!!
I'm still holding,
current divi is 215.6p per year (4 x 53.9p)
at the current SP (2628) that's a yield of over 8%.
How much lower can it go !
High - It’s not quite as straightforward as that. BATS can borrow money relatively cheaply as it has an ok credit rating. That credit rating is based upon it slowly deleveraging after the Phillips acquisition as at the moment they have 45bn of debt which is high for the sector. If they didn’t pay off some of their debt, then they would get downgraded by the credit agencies and the cost of revolving credit and refinancing longer term debt would increase. Those increased costs would be over a large amount of debt so would be a lot higher in absolute terms than the difference between the cost of debt vs dividends over a smaller amount of money.
I’m not really that bothered about the SP on this one. Long term plan is to continue to compound the dividends in my main holding and to do that a lower SP with less downside risk and a higher yield is much more attractive.
I have added a few more at these prices for a short to medium term trade and will close out those positions at 2840p having collected at least one 53.9p dividend along the way. That’s around a 225p upside sometime in the next few weeks/months that I don’t really have to worry about.
Downside risk short term is around 200p at these levels, but it never stays there for long.
Compound, 'seen' you on the BP board who, like myself, have taken advantage of the recent rally & sold some/all.
Am also long on BATS & was hoping for a rally in SP running up to XD on 30th. Was tempting to top up at recent low at £26.26, but dithered & missed that bottom. So, have set myself a target on the run up of £28 to sell.
That will give me a tidy in/out profit but is a 5% rise from 2,666 now. Doable maybe?
If it doesn't happen i'll take the 54p, but SP drops more than divi sometimes so would rather get out with the cap gain.
Trying to get p/f to 60/65% cash as i think there may be the possibility of a correction.....
Good luck
Pig
Yes I’m all out of BP and actually short on RDSB and oil at the moment. Not convinced I’ve picked the top, but a correction is due on those soon.
Kept all of my BATS though. I’m quite surprised there hasn’t been a run up yet in the SP towards ex div as now only 3 trading days left. The delay in the FDA decision seems to be weighing on the SP. With no timescale / deadline I expect it will stay like that until they make an announcement, and then the SP will move - one way or the other. I think even if it is bad news and the SP tanks, it will recover as Vuse makes up a tiny % of BATS revenue.
I think the best the SP will probably do next week is the recent resistance at around 2740. I’ve added 3 extra positions recently. Prices are different as I use spreadbetting futures but was around today’s price so didn’t catch the bottom. I’ll close one position Tues/Wed as I want a bit of free cash, but I’ll probably let the others run, collect the div and close at 2840 in a few weeks time.
This nearly always drops by more than the div on ex div day, but also usually recovers within a few days/weeks to close the gap.
Only short term risk is if there’s no rise next week and the SP is at current levels, then there is a good chance that the ex div drop could break through current support and drop down to around 2500. That would be a fill yer boots level for me!