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Down 9 p/c today. Got a buy order in at 350 - should it get there.
Well, must be nearly a year since I last visited here.
What's that clanking you ask? - Why it's the cell keys I'm carrying.
I'm unlocking all your cell doors as of mid July - you're all on bail from circa this month. That's the key (unintended pun) turning point after a profit warning is issued - one year - and your time's up!
A paucity of interim trading updates, so can't form any conclusions going forward.
Unfortunate for BAG to have a profit warning in which before the 12 months are up, a market crash happens followed by a worldwide Pandemic lockdown.
Last July at the time of the profit warning, the PE ratio was circa P/E25.
Tonight it's fwd P/E ratio is 19.7
So, although no longer at a premium to the industry it is nonetheless slap in the average of that industry - almost as if it never issued a profit warning. Most in that position suffer a below average P/E ratio. So even at this price it's no bargain. It's fair but not cheap. Could have done with the SP being at it's worst now rather than back in the March crash - as it would have been just the job for a shot in the arm upon receiving it's released-on-bail papers, but with a P/E still a decent 19.9 it shows -
a) The market doesn't hate BAG but then again it will
b) Deter bargain hunters from coming to the SP's rescue
- especially as the forecasts for the current year and next are distinctly uninspiring.
So I will continue to keep an eye on BAG but at this P/E level and the forecast trading over the next 2 years, I won't be buying just yet. But hey! It's bail time - Up to you now BAG. The stigma of a profit-warning-hit stock is over.
I'm a big fan of this company and think it's SP should be higher, however I am getting slightly annoyed with their management - the company has no debt, a solid balance sheet and excellent brands yet in the last year they've managed to issue a profit warning and like to blame everything except themselves (Scottish weather, CO2 Shortages etc)... I think it's quite cheap at these levels but I have a feeling it will drop more with the trading update when they inevitably blame Covid, Brexit, weather, losing Rockstar, moon aligning with Uranus, etc
Two weeks later and mine was the last comment !!
Not much happens on here and probably the most boring share I own at the moment !
Always more buys than sells but when is the share price going up?
Liberum BUY recommendation. Target 625
Oh yeah. Its shot up. Fancy that. Lol
You will find out either way at the trading update
Should see rise to 600 this month. Xmas sales will have been good
It went lower intra-day, around 5.14.
I like BAG but prefer Nichols (NICL).
Year low of 526 on Thurs 9th January. Perhaps I will get my buy at 499 after all.
Oh no it isn't!!.
This is on the rise on a 1 monthly trend. Superb.
1901 Original Irn Bru as been selling out of shops in hours in Scotland. If Rockstar does half aswell as Monster the upside for this stock could be phenominal. Yahoo forecasts £8 median, £6.25 low. Hope its a hot 2020.
Bought a small amount at 550. Will top-up at 499, should it get there.
Now down to 3.6%
I have to state that reading your posts ( evensome of the content that is above me) i find extermely informative, useful and balanced. Much better than reading Investors Crapital whilst the wife does the shopping.
Keap it up
Judging by last week's price action 530p is holding as support. There has also been a slight reduction in the shorts.
Yes, I agree heavy buying by the CFO in normal circumstances would be indicative of a positive outlook. But disagree for contrarian reasons on this occasion.
Unfortunately both BAG execs and (from my own personal experience) 99.9% of LSE posters utterly fail to take in the significance and severity of profit warnings and how the market treats them. IMO the SP from the day of the profit warning has now become wholly unreliable and will mislead until at least summer next year, where, only then will it be more "safer" and not a green light, that concern over the SP is over. Until then, I believe the SP will alternate from disappoint to delight - both will be unreliable.
The data by academic researchers shows that if you have researched the stock well, and have full confidence in it's long term recovery then you can look at the inevitable dips to come as topping-up opportunities, otherwise the general advice is to sell on the day of the profit warning, or short it on the day.
I had posted elsewhere (behind a pay wall) of a possible worst case scenario of 420 being a possibility - at the worst. I'm not forecasting it, neither was the poster your post references who mentioned 420, but merely highlight it as a worst case potential possibility. If I knew for certain it was heading there then I would say here that would be my entry vicinity into BAG. But that is a strong support level and before that is a less stronger one in the 530's, which coincidentally brings me to the point of this post, and a suggestion of 530's as far more likely a floor (presupposing the SP does visit the 500's at some point in the next full year).
And it's because of the (forward) P/E ratio.
BAG has always been awarded a premium P/E ratio by the market for its perceived growth potential. Just before the profit warning it was running at near double the industry average at well over P/E30+ And back in June it was in the high 20's at P/E28. Right now with the reduced profits warned for H2, the forward PE ratio is down to P/E20.2 Only thing is that's still sporting a premium rating to the market - as the industry median is fwd P/E17.5
Hardly "severe punishment" by the market is it? Just to bring the SP down to the industry median would still not be a real downgrading; only bringing BAG into line with the industry average. And that for the SP would be 536p just to give BAG a P/E of 17.5
So 536 and STILL the P/E ratio would only be 'average'. Also it fits rather neatly with the 50% Fibbo retracement level of 530's area. However down below that is the ultimate 61.8% Fibbo retracement of the 420's.
So my first stop-over for considering either an entry or a top-up would be the 530's.
It's all to do with the profit warning as the CFO and his early purchase may well soon discover to his cost - or not if you believe that him buying, tops all other opinions including how the market treats profit-warning hit shares.
All above IMO
When The Finance director Stuart Lorimer has been buying over 10000 shares in the last three days .
Its Hardly an indication the the share price is Heading towards £ 4.20 LOL .
Two Motley Fool articles covering BARR in July, both strong BUYS....just shows you what that shower know!
Still nothing to add on your random price prediction?
lol enough said I think :-)
True if we get a recession you'd certainly be right it would all get cheaper. Irn bru is still an incredibly defensive product, (drink) the Scots just love it, my nephew drinks it by the barrel and won't touch the supermarket own brands