The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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I have continually warned private investors about this company over the last 2 years.
Investors need to study a company's USP AND the directors and people running it.
On this board some people supporting this company were so focused on the technology but failed to study the directors.
I have always said that I don't trust the directors and I think many in the city agree.
Be it at your own risk if you decide to buy at "bargain basement" prices. They are at this price for a reason.
I have always said this company will go bust once all its cash assets have been used up.
Cheers Barcap
Despite the lack of financial progress the company has been announcing significant engineering progress.
However at the point at which it doesn't pay for itself the engineering excellence becomes a problem.
Over the course of 2023 net debt increased by $85m. Cash decreased by $85m. Cash at the start of 2024 was $101m.
Engineering needs to start paying for itself sooner rather than later.
Indeed, somewhat underwhelming. Presentation has never been a forte here, but the appointment of Charlie Roach as Chief Revenue Officer was a move to 'get inside the tent' . Given he only started in February, I am prepared to give them a bit more rope, as the product would appear to argue for itself, and it is too early to call this an also-ran. The full results should clarify exactly where the revenue shortfall from target really lies and as a new CRO, he no doubt feels very comfortable with the low bar set here when it comes to his annual appraisal.
Not a lot on the financial side.
28 April 2023 : Alphawave Semi expects 2023 revenue of US$340m to US$360m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$87m (or approximately 25% of revenue), which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range
16 April 2024 :Alphawave Semi expects 2024 revenue of US$345m to US$365m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$70m or approximately 20% of revenue, which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range.
So much for an addressable market growing > 20% p.a ( though Tony still thinks that by 2027 everything will still fall into place, just that delivery will be back end loaded )
28 April 2023 : Alphawave Semi expects 2023 revenue of US$340m to US$360m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$87m (or approximately 25% of revenue), which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range
16 April 2024 :Alphawave Semi expects 2024 revenue of US$345m to US$365m and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$70m or approximately 20% of revenue, which is at the mid-point of the revenue guidance range.
So much for an addressable market growing > 20% p.a ( though Tony still thinks that by 2027 everything will still fall into place, just that delivery will be back end loaded )
Oh my days a 25% loss in one day! - i was trying to keep the faith here with Alphawave but that faith is being sorely tested
When the facts change, I change my mind.
Thankfully this is money lost I dont depend on , bought with motley idiot advice it could be the next Nivea they lost 12 % before today , Amazing really and a learning curve , going to stick with it tbh , whole lse is bloody hard work to make anything I've found
To clarify, they didn't just miss guidance by 10%, it was a whole lot worse than that.
1. In the 22nd Jan trading update they confirmed that unaudited FY23 revenues to 31/12 were in line with guidance at $340-360m, today they changed this to $318-323m post audit, so it appears that ~10% of revenues weren't signed off by the audit team.
2. FY24 forecasts were slashed, previously revenue was forecast to be $403.9m, now it's $340-360m, EBITDA was forecast to be $109.8m, it's been slashed to $70m, a 36% reduction...
3. FY25 is now forecast to see top line of $450m at 20-25% EBITDA margins ($101.25m EBITDA at the midpoint). Prior forecasts were for $497m & $151.4m EBITDA (30% margin). So this is a 33% cut in EBITDA and a 25% margin cut...
So many downgrades it's hard to count, however the 36% reduction in FY24 EBITDA easily justifies the 28% fall in share price today.
I can only presume that the Deutsche bank upgrade was issued prior to today's results, otherwise they've effectively upped their EBITDA multiple from ~9x to 14x in the face of severe downgrades.
Last point - the comments on this thread prove once again how ridiculous it is that UK PI's don't have free access to the high level forecasts that these companies are reporting on...
Thanks @shearclass. You were spot on on this one. On the plus side, I've made a lot more on Alpha Group than I've lost on Alphawave.
BluePhallus
Wow.... You have finally seen the light!
Unfortunately your series of extremely long and positive posts over the last couple if years
will have pulled in many private investors who
now have burnt fingers.
Maybe you owe them an apology.
As soon as I saw the RNS this morning I made the reluctant decision to get out altogether. I've done so with a profit of around 18% over 2 years. Not exactly what I had in mind but better than coming out with less than what I put in.
It's likely now that I will wait until after the results before I make a decision to get back in or not regardless of whether price is higher or lower than now. I genuinely thought they would hit their guidance or exceed it. Further, I'm not thoroughly convinced of their reasoning for missing the guidance - accelerated exit from China? - that's a weak excuse. To be fair though it should be noted that missing the guidance by less than 10% isn't exactly disastrous but it does show they haven't got a proper handle on their finances yet.
I missed the 8.30 am webinar. Did anyone get to watch? Hopefully it will be made public.
Link to the Deutsche Bank upgrade? How can their analysis be so at odds with the market? Are they the house broker??
Sorry to hear @koolhead. I've called this out many times over the last couple of years, in my opinion the way it reports results should be outlawed as it obfuscates performance to such a degree that the numbers become useless.
A shocking company which in my opinion has well and truly taken the p*ss out of UK markets & the FCA.
The brokers have consistently got this company completely wrong and the shortest have consistently got it right. When this IPO'd the brokers were forecasting a CAGR of 64% (and that was prior to acquisitions). As it is, EPS fell by about 64% between 2021 and 2022 despite spending 600m on acquisitions. I own about 30 companies and this has been the worst of the bunch. The lesson I've learned is not to buy things based on potential and broker forecasts. Consistent profit growth and rising dividends are the only things that matter and on these grounds this company is an abject failure.
Deutsche Bank issued buy upgrade today to 200p from 180p..
In April 2022 they forecast revenue in excess of $500 for 2024 and margins to have increased from the 32-36% they forecast for 2023. The latest results are miles off. And they blame China which they've been trying to get out of almost since they first listed. And we're in the middle of an AI boom they say they're right in the middle of. It's pathetic. Anyway, telling themselves these results are ok are lying to themselves.
Word!
I can imagine that the share rebounded immediately, as it was panic selling that only saw the bare numbers. But not the fact that it is due to the Chinese sales, which they deliberately want to let die due to the low margin.
This company consistently rises on hope and sinks on results. Let's face it, it's a serial disappointment. All around it competitors are booming on AI but AWE manages a profit warning. I also can't stand the way they report. Cumulative revenue over the lifetime of the company, bookings, design wins... It's all irrelevant when you've gone from net cash of 500m to -100m and are issuing profit warnings. I've held for years now and I'm sick to death of this terrible company.
Bad! But I wouldn't rush into anything. Sales are 10% below expectations, and I'm just now reading that this is being attributed to the Chinese business, which they are deliberately trying to let die because the margins there are not good.
All 10 new design wins were achieved in the KAI and data center areas, which is definitely positive.
Think the price drop pm is was too much.
lower than exp. revenue becouse accelated transition away from china
changes in expected revenue recognition of longterm contrats
stronger than expected Q1 2024 - 110 mio booking
cululative lifetime bookings over 1 billion
10 new design wins - all AI and data centres applications
Guidance prepared on a botton-up basis
"Based on the near completion of the audit process, the Company now expects FY 2023 revenue of approximately US$318m-323m which is below the original outlook for the year (US$340m to US$360m). "
I cant find any official date for the earnings? I thougt, the earnings date has to be released 14 days in front. That would mean, they will release earnings in may? What do you guys think?