Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Discussed yesterday. Disappointing but old news. As you were.
Sorry about that guys
Naively thought
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W14/748486940
Contained all relevant information
Agree with jdt. Conclusion of contract 13 march 2021.
Gemstar - need to do some more research. Contract published yesterday it ENDED in March!!!!
Just finished arguing with the Jehovah witness what a waste of time that was he had his view and was unwilling to take anything on board anyone else had to say.
Very much like this thread.... zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
I look at all the major shareholders of this company and think we are going to be ok!
Weirdo!
Avactas comments on the tie up with Mologic. A LOW RISK route to CE marking in Q1. This then slipped to around the end of Q1 in the business update. I can understand folks frustrations at seeing this innova deal.
Dr Alastair Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Avacta Group, commented:
“I am very pleased to announce this partnership with Mologic, which follows a close collaboration over recent months. The partnership provides Avacta with a low risk route to CE marking our rapid antigen test during Q1 ahead of achieving our own ISO13485 accreditation.
Gemstar, just to confirm that whilst the contract was published yesterday, it was concluded on 13/3, nearly a month ago. See section V 2.2 of https://find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/007376-2021
Wyndrum, thanks for reply. In the event you are correct & as you are a keen chartist, how do expect the sp to unfold (or indeed unravel) over the next month? A gradual decline, or 'lumpy'? Guess you'll be unloading at least some in the very near future.
The bottom line is if Avacta were anywhere near producing an LFT, the DS would not have signed a 1bn contract with Innova yesterday
JD, I am not fixated on the UK, I am just talking about the UK. I have said if we get a lump of the global market then the UK becomes academic.
However, the size of the latest Innova order also suggests that we do not have millions or our tests being produced in the UK ready to go as soon as the CE/CV hurdles are overcome. Therefore we are still weeks away from having for sale a meaningful test. (The caveat to that is unless they are being produced elsewhere but there is no evidence that they are so it would be unfair to say that they were.)
£8b sounds great but just because it is earmarked to be spent does not mean it will be. Even allowing for our different views on this, can we agree the pin-ball reactions of this govt are hardly the most reliable to hang your hat on?
Our big USP is its not a brain tickler and it will be ok for home use. But somehow Innova, which was not certified as or for either are now being used for at home and no longer apparently need to go into the brain.
(I'm glossing over our accuracy, not because I doubt that for 1 nano second, but simply Innova seems to be, from a govt pov sufficient. If it were not I don't know how there can be a rational explanation of why AVCT have not been fast tracked through all the test validations etc. Remember we have been talking to the govt for a long time but in the end we have had to go via Mologic to speed things up)
You say "£8bn is up for grabs and it's clearly not going to Innova". Why not? I though we all agreed in feb that was the last order to them as a last stop gap and it all tied in with our test ready to roll in March?
By the way I can make a blinding case for AVCT but its based on a lot of dot joining rather than the facts as we know them today. And there are plenty here who do that better than me.
Just a question, but how sure are we that this is a NEW contract win for £1.2bn, rather than an expansion of an existing contract with the £1.2bn representing the revised total value of that EXISTING contract post expansion?
I ask only because I’ve been looking through these https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Search/Results?page=1#d2574d94-13d2-423f-b744-47330680fe02 (and the atamis downloads in each of the five contracts listed), and they seem to cross refer.
I suppose what I’m asking is; are all of these contracts for discrete amounts, or do the quoted contract values represent an accumulating value of a single “base” contract?
Sorry if this is gibberish!
TEMPLAR your 50% accuracy is somewhat misleading, the Innova LFD has a 100% Sensitivity as well. It all depends on what viral load you are testing. In the case of any LFD the recognised viral load of < Ct25 has to achieve a Sensitivity of > 90% or it won't be a validated test. Innova's LFD has been validated by Porton Down and therefore meets the required standard.
Innova LFD has a 100% Sensitivity at <18 Ct however this is like your 50% figure, worthless.
PCR is referred to as the Gold Standard and yet the BMJ listed a PCR test of 205 patients in which the Sensitivity varied from 93% down to 63% depending upon the site and quality of the sample. Nasal swabs being the lowest figure, a minefield of stats which can be interpreted in various ways . Should we question the S&S of our Gold Standard and upset DEEKS ?
The fact is we have a test which blows Innova's LFD out of the water in terms of S&S and their test is recognised as being fit for purpose. Even a slight fall in our initial S&S figures still makes our test the BEST and we won't be able to satisfy demand imo. HAPPY DAYS.
Aside from the fact there is a whole world outside the UK with a hell of a lot more people and in a lot more precarious COVID positions right now.....demand will outstrip supply FACT.
But to come back to your repeated point on UK demand Wyndrum which you seem to be fixated on.
THE INNOVA AWARD WAS OUTSIDE OF THE UK's £8BN DPS FOR LATERAL FLOW TESTS!!! WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU!? £8bn is up for grabs and it's clearly not going to Innova. Not many others left in the mixer for it is there.
My word you’re a bore. I thought the sealion was bad. There isn’t a single country on the planet that is fully back to normal, everywhere open, social distancing gone, borders open. Common sense tells you the needs for mass screening is currently unlimited in demand as supply can’t meet it. The global supply chain is 120m LFDs per day. There are 7.8Bn humans on the planet. I don’t need to justify anything to someone that’s so utterly gormless they can’t apply common sense.
What do you think fair value is for a company with AVA6K heading in to the clinic? What’s the reward for that success? You love bathing in the misery of the risk side of things, try thinking about the potential, you might like it.
I’ve never presented anything as a done deal. If it was risk free the price would be higher, wouldn’t it? If the price is at a level that I find attractive, I’ll add more. Why that’s your business I’ve no idea. I have enough in here for it to be life changing, I’m prepared to lose it. I’m very interested in both the short and long term. You seem confused by someone being capable of accepting risk. You clearly can’t cope and feel the need to share. Shame. Anyway, I hope the results arrive in a fortnight as you’ve said you’ll be gone if they’re not here in a week. Fingers crossed eh?
Beret, My concern is the amount of the award to Innova. I think it equates to roughly 3 months worth of tests And I think that is significant because the govt said it would give out free tests until the end of June which is roughly 3 months. (and it is the size of the order that has me scratching my head.)
That's my 2+2 reasoning that AVCT are not getting sovereign supply in the way we have been expecting over the last 6 months or so.
We may get a validated test before then but if we do, I think those innova test will still have to be used up first. The fact the govt ordered so many also suggests to me we are "not quite there yet".
The big plus is the global market which if we get that then I agree it becomes instantly academic in and for the UK. But we do first, have to have a test.
Really really simply. If what we were looking to achieve was easy, someone would have done it already. Low and behold.....they haven't! It's all been cheap knock offs that are getting found out for what they really are. Apple weren't first to the mobile phone party but christ aren't they now the one most people can't go without.
This investment is not risk free?! F me, I'm in the wrong game.
If there was no risk, we would be at +£10 already. It's the price it is at now because risk/reward is ALSO priced in funnily enough.
Talking of if it works out or not, the SP does that for you. Pointless talking about risk on AIM.... We are all well aware
Ndn71,
Let me see, anybody test, in the words of Alastair, "are easy to make"; I take a test with 50% to 75% sensitivity, are also easy to make and both within a year timeframe. AVACTA was aiming higher and with the view to dominate the market (not only few billion UK market) so the process will be longer.
I take my hat off to AVACTA for delivering a great test within 1 year.
Ndn, thanks. Good to know. Hope your gamble pays off.
Wow, you managed one whole positive sentence. Congrats, every journey starts with a single step.
Ncyt doesn’t concern me in the slightest, PCR is a separate much smaller market. The board are very aware of putting their eggs in one govt basket, I’m sure that’s why we’re waiting for an independent CV and CE marking. The global demand is effectively unlimited.
I discussed fair value earlier today, it’s probably about £1.50 and rising each day as AVA6k nears. The share price will fall if the test is rubbish, I’m aware of the risks and can afford to lose the money I have invested.
As you’ve focussed on the negative (what a surprise) ... let’s talk about the potential.
How much do you think the price will rise if the CV matches the evaluation? How large do you think the market is? What price to you think we’ll get to with the govt contracts?
And if you don’t agree and don’t believe or even doubt - why still hold ? Surely sell up and go to ODX or NCYT nobody needs anyone to hold this stock to sustain its sp - filling the gap from example a modest 100k holding is about as slow as the time it takes for water enter the vacated space left when you’ve pulled your tea bag out !
TEMPLAR: ""neither is AVACTA or Alastair smith late with the results".....my ass "!
I think you missed the point in my arguments, TEMPLAR; AVACTA (or Alastair for that matter) completed all their work on time. The affimers were ready, the work with Cytiva was done as fast as humanly possible (taking into account LTF usually take 2 or more years to be developed and virus samples were accessible to the Chinese way way faster than it was to the West for various reasons [the WHO wasn't even allowed access to China at the beginning, so we were already a few steps behind]).
What we are all waiting for now is third parties to tell us what we already know (by the preliminary results on specificity and sensitivity) so we get the CE mark, and only then we will be able to sell.
So, your "my ass" is a little bit disingenuous in my view and show that you are not fair in blaming AVCT or Alastair for any delay. You should blame the Government's Porton Down, lack of technical scientific staff as I think it was mentioned in a post here, a while back, and bureaucratic paperwork by these third parties ( but not AVCT or Alastair as they moved mountains to speed up the process and have delivered more than 1000% share value for those who bought in the 20p range a year ago and only God knows how much more they will earn as the tests come out and the cancer therapies will progress).
I can only say, I am sorry you were too late to the party so far, but you can always buy in if you wish.
One extra point, which I think is worth more than what money can buy or reward us financially, it is the hope that the oncology aspect our AVCTA will deliver in this horrible fight against cancer. There is not one single argument you can put forward that will undermine the convictions and hopes of some of us who hold these shares (no one more than future Sir Alastair Smith I am sure) as we would all like to see cancer being defeated once and for all.
I rest my case here and frankly, the tests may be a great revenue stream for sure, but it is the hope of defeating cancer that my hopes will remain focused on; and not only on my selfish material gains.
Good luck with your investments.
ST
Yes, I’m interested to hear why you think it’ might delayed until July?