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When there 54p,
This link would suggest financial close/final investment decision are until Q3 now, no?
Yes I am aware of this
Below is an extract from interim accounts June 23. As far as I am aware this remains untapped. Unsure why they haven’t as an immediate gain.
“Additional financial support is available to the Group in the form of an Unconditional Standby Equity Facility Agreement whereby Peter Levine, Chairman and one of his investment vehicles, PLLG Investments Limited, have agreed to subscribe for shares at the placing price of 80p per share at the call option of the Company at no cost and at any time during the period to end June 2024. This provides an additional £3.0 million facility to the Group should it so require after considering other forms of financing available”
What else have you found!
Nice find that's a third of the money I believe
Https://idbinvest.org/en/projects/green-hydrogen-ammonia-and-fertilizer-plant-paraguay
Although not explicitly said there is enough text/video to believe that the deal is as good as done and it's all about MARGIN,BREAK CLAUSES AND TENURE of agreements.
Also counterparties looking at the same deal for the next project.
You want World Bank IFC etc participation as this does potentially de risk geo political risk although to be honest Paraguay has come a long way in the last 20 years.
An IRR of what's been suggested or even lower where almost everything is fixed for hopefully matching tenures is just a no brainer. You do that deal every day. There is nothing overly complicated about what the company is trying to do here.
I think so, I have now committed myself (kiss of death?), if they do what they say on the tin (or CAN!) and complete and deliver the volumes they state, it's substantially undervalued even analysts targets too, but it needs to see action and not just talk.
I agree this is likely an incredible opportunity, but people don’t want to commit without knowing the project economics, which should become clear any day with the announcements we’re expecting. Suspect people are worried about dilution, but if project finance is delivered as signposted this shouldn’t be too damaging.
I suspect this will fly after Q1 and particularly as we get closer to production.
I'll post some thoughts tomorrow
I've been looking at this share for the past few days and it looks fantastic analysts have price targets in near term £2-2. 42, from 1st phase 500kof carbon credits (woah.), 270k of Can (nice) both together that's major turnover, tax status of area (thumbs up), debt financing part lots of interest shouldn't be a problem, the off take from phase 1 companies clamouring for it (yey)..... So why is the share unloved?? I understand people don't like the P. L, bloke, missed deadlines, but there's also not much chat on any forums and trades are very low even on a major days, can anyone elaborate???
New 52 week low
Plenty of news to come in the next eight weeks to give some direction, just hope we don't get the same treatment president energy/mol have had in the past with a 35p fund raise that PL seems to like.
I agree re Paraguay. No matter what happens in the world, there will be a huge and unchanging demand for fertilizer. If there's a global conflict, S America will be even more desperate for it as it mostly comes from Russia/Ukraine.
Iceland is of very little importance at the moment the prize is Paraguay
Debt financing key on what terms, very little news Iceland just don't think there's interest here particularly as in Paraguay
Difficult to know where the bottom is, could go way lower, may fly on good news. A lottery at the moment.
New 52 week low
I think this will be a huge year for Atome, when investors understand what green CAN is, the part it plays in food security and the green transition (agriculture emits more CO2 than shipping and aviation combined), and the economics. It will bring price stability to producers and demand for Green CAN will be off the scale, before you even consider EU carbon taxes. The challenge is manufacturing enough to meet demand.
We should see a huge re-rating as we go through Q1 and beyond. A long term hold for me.
Olivier Mussat, ATOME's CEO, commented: "The Board is confident that 2024 will be a transformational year for ATOME and we are grateful to the team and our strategic partners who have continued to work throughout the end of the year in order to make rapid progress on the engineering, financial and commercial fronts.
"Whilst taking slightly longer than we originally hoped, the work and de-risking during this extended time has allowed for significant benefit in enhancing the efficacy of our first 145MW project in Paraguay as well as enabling beneficial impact on design, offtake, and financing. We are confident that in this Q1, further key project milestones will be achieved, and we look forward to taking FID on the Villeta project once these workstreams are completed.
"At the same time, work is continuing in parallel on other projects and in particular Costa Rica which, combined with Yguazu in Paraguay, provides a pipeline of projects extending to world-scale in excess of half a gigawatt."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/atome/news/rns/story/xj7q57x
Actually I rather hope all that is happening now is seeing if there is any additional margin to squeeze out of the trade to keep the IRR as high as possible. The one thing I have never asked is the duration of the fixed cost of electricity as I guess the product cost duration will have to match. As far as build out repayment is concerned I'm not sure and what is the lifespan I guess on thins like electrolyses . Stupid of me to not of asked
Piltick probably the reason for little movement in the sp was the missed target of Q4 for the news and is now Q1 2024. Over promised under delivered unfortunately for now.
@Piltick, the RNS is super positive and really confirms that everything is on track, and will likely happen.
But it's still impossible to actually model earnings, ROI, break even, etc. We need the FID, project financing and offtake details to understand this, and also understand if there will be any further dilution along the way.
My feeling is that this will be massive, but we can't proove it until the Q1 announcements start to drop (so just a matter of weeks).
When that happens, I'm hopeful well see significant SP movement and SP climb as production gets nearer/operational execution risk decreases through 2024/2025.
So right now, it's an awesome time to load up for the brave!
I would have thought that this great update should deserve a better market reaction than this!
I think we have a giant company here in the making but until the construction of plant gets underway the paper dreams will not be heavily invested in by the market. Long way to go but the company is travelling at speed. My prediction is that a large oil major will snap this up as part of their esg drive,