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I am happy with the small profit I took for holding for a few days. What bothers me most is the COVID-2019 backlog of cases in the court system and the number of cases that are likely to enter the court system as eviction cases and others related to the dire economy continue to grow. It becomes harder to enforce debts through the courts when the courts have inbuilt delays which allow recoverable assets to further deteriorate in value.
The resumption of dividends also seems far into the future; the RNS states:
'The Group anticipates returning to regular dividend payments when leverage returns to within our risk appetite.'
&
'The business is well placed ahead of the next refinancing requirement in 2024, by when we expect leverage to have returned to within our risk appetite.'
Possibly 3 or more years until a dividend? Back onto the watchlist for a future trade. Good luck to those who decide to hold but this is outside my risk/reward appetite.
Fredr
I`ve looked at all your posts on here and elsewhere are you a professional undertakers cheer leader ? you`ve not got a good word to say about any share.
How depressing you are, get a life and be happy. :-)
For Arrow Global (ARW), the Covid-19 crisis has morphed from "exactly the kind of situation" the debt collector was built for to “a potential once-in-a-lifetime multi-decade market opportunity”, interim results confirmed. While this breathless optimism sparked analyst predictions of a turnaround and an enthusiastic market reception, the numbers still leave plenty of reasons for concern.
Unfortunately this might be it for today, should have bounced off the resistance but dropped under it :(
Spread ain’t helping 3.2 on Hargreaves. Come on guys let it ride.
Bloody Day traders or MM look to be holding the SP back
Totally agree aboutv the value here
As stated back in May, this is the one of the best opportunities on the market for a multi-bagger.
Great bullish statement from the company too...if they're right, this isn't just going to recover to pre-COVID levels, its going to completely bliz them.
Future looks good for ARW. I took a position couple of weeks ago which was going to be a trade based on a decent update but the SP is massively undervalued and with the outlook looking so positive and ARW primed to take advantage of the current climate this is now a hold for me.
Current sp is a gift.
Good to see Buy recommendations. Totally agree Arrow undervalued.
In a note, analysts at Shore Capital reiterated their ‘buy’ rating on the stock, saying that despite the swing to loss the results provided “scope for optimism on multiple fronts” and that they expected the shares to rally as the firm had been “somewhat left behind by a recent rally in the debt purchaser peer group sub-sector”.
Share price picking up how after institutional Q&A. There are undervalued at current price imo
Totally agree very exciting opportunities for arw and I am sure they are going to take full advantage of the current situation.
Beyond the cash position and £2.6b of fund management, I think the most important but maybe overlooked part of todays result is:
"With €1.1 billion of discretionary undeployed fund management capital, we are extremely well placed to be a leading investor in this huge market with increasingly attractive returns"
ARW are in a very good position to capitalise.
I also liked this part in forward looking statement
We are looking forward to 2021 with optimism. Our analysis of the impact of the pandemic on the balance sheets of European financial institutions shows that the increased volume of NPLs sold into the capital markets in the coming years will eclipse the circa EUR800 billion divested over the last six years in response to the bad loans created by the global financial crisis (GFC). When viewed alongside the pre-COVID-19 EUR1.5 trillion NPL and non-core credit market, we are looking at a potential once-in-a-lifetime multi-decade market opportunity.
Not sure how Mr Market will react but the results could have been far worse. Mr Market had wiped out £350m in m/cap and the portfolio was written down by £133m; a mismatch of over £200m which is nearly 150% of current m/cap.
It will be interesting to see how the analysts react to the Q&A session conference call.
Agreed, results are better than expected and the recession should bring ARW even more opportunities to grow.
Collections holding up well. Results better than I expected.
Cash positive in H1 2020 with available cash headroom increasing to £166.7 million (FY 2019: £153.0 million) - driven by continued strong free cash flow (FCF) generation of £82.5 million (H1 2019: £115.3 million) and reduced capital intensity from Arrow co-investing with the Fund.
Be interesting to see results tomorrow and forward forecast. Seems significant doom and gloom priced in.
Any better situation confirmed think will see a sharp SP increase, but still potential to jump onboard but may miss initial 10 to 20% if good. Have a position but may add after tomorrow depending on what is said. Guess many watching from the sidelines.
Also interesting that short positions that were above 12% in 2019 have come down to less than 1% (0.79%) recently. Was one of the most heavily shorted shares in 2019.
Source:
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BDGTXM47/
Institutions such as Morgan Stanley accumulating recently. They also have a target price of 150p.
I'm expecting results to be ok considering cv19 situation. At this price Arrow is priced to go bust which it clearly will not imo.
Undervalued and ready to rerate imo. This will blow past the 150p price target in the near term imo
Bit of a rise at close. Currently priced to fail...
Good opportunity to top up ?
In a recession, especially when deflation might become an issue, invest in a money lender and encourage your enemies to borrow [provided that you live in a region where they have strong courts]. Whilst ARW may not be a money lender they are buying debt at distressed prices an have years of experience in the industry.
I have taken a chunk in anticipation of the interims - the downside seems less than the upside for a trade and there may be appeal to hold longer if there is positive guidance on resuming paying dividends.
I think people are going to be very surprised next week when the interm results are announced. No doubt a very healthy short term profit to be made in arw and massive upside medium term from these prices